Will US foreign policy towards Bangladesh change if Trump wins? 

'An immediate shift in US policy towards Bangladesh highly unlikely'

Ali Riaz, Distinguished professor, Illinois State University

There has been a lot of speculation regarding the impact of a second Donald Trump presidency on US foreign policy for Bangladesh. We need to consider two things here. As a matter of fact, there usually is continuity in US foreign policy, despite the fact that we have seen some ruptures and some changes in the past decade, particularly when it changed between Mr Trump and Mr Biden. 

So people are asking, if Trump comes to power, what would be his broader approach to international relations? In the broader picture, what is expected from him is that he would largely be protectionist and isolationist.

So within that context, we can imagine that there will be very little attention to the smaller countries, including Bangladesh. His policy might isolate the United States more, as we have seen previously during his first term. So if that is the case, I don't think there would be a major shift in terms of the policies. 

Having said that, there is a second point that I would like to draw attention to: Mr Trump has an affinity with autocratic leaders and autocratic regimes. So the closer relationship between Mr Modi and Mr Trump is likely to increase given their politics. Both of them seem to be very autocratic leaders. That might have some impact on the India-US relationship. 

But extending that beyond India in the region is at this point a mere speculation. We will have to wait and see. I do not anticipate an immediate shift even if Mr Trump comes to power in the future. It would depend on what kind of dynamics play out in global politics. 

Another important question is: What would be the relationship with China if Trump becomes president? Because when we are talking about the US-India relationship, there is this looming large entity: China. So what would be the relationship between the US and China? 

The posture towards China that, in large measure, would determine the US-India relationship beyond their usual relationship. So at this point, I do not anticipate a dramatic shift immediately if Mr Trump comes to power.

Also, pushing Trump to reduce support for the interim government would be detrimental to India's interests. As a matter of fact, what we have seen in India is what can be described as a lukewarm reaction to the Yunus government. But beyond that, we have seen that the Indian media and Indian establishment have engaged in misinformation campaigns about Bangladesh. 

Yes, there is no doubt about it that it has been backed up by the Indian establishment, and they are trying to use all the resources they have, including lobbying in the United States and beyond. So would that continue? That is likely to continue anyway until there is a very clear reversal or at least recalibration of Indian policy. It is somewhat unconnected to what happened in the United States. Even if Kamala Harris wins, I don't see any possibility that India is going to do a sudden 180-degree turn with respect to Bangladesh policy. It will take time. 

I hope that India will recalibrate its policy toward Bangladesh that is beneficial to their own interests. But the likelihood of that in the immediate term, I don't see that one. It would take time. The Bangladesh government has provided a very good gesture towards India, saying that they don't want an enemy or any kind of hostility. 

But the presence of the former autocrat of Bangladesh, Sheikh Hasina, is a matter of concern for Bangladesh. But we'll see how she's treated through the judicial system in Bangladesh and how that works out. 

India's foreign policy, especially regional policy, is based on its own perspective. They don't have any friends in the region because of their own policies towards their neighbors. So as for Bangladesh, that might continue in the coming months, hopefully not in years.

And there is a perception that a Trump victory will embolden the Awami League. I think that if Mr Trump wins, they might think that this is their sort of opportunity for waging more campaigns or trying to be present on the political landscape.

We must remember that the perception of AL in Bangladesh would not determine US policy. The US policy would be determined by their interests. 

Perception is something that is not necessarily always tied to reality. Especially for the AL activists, who are living in their makebelieve world. The Hasina regime killed more than 2,000 people, and more than 20,000 people have been injured. But not a single word of remorse or repentance has been heard from the party, or their supporters or from the people who have given legitimacy to the autocratic regime, even though they are still in Bangladesh. 

Ali Riaz is a distinguished professor at the Department of Politics and Government at Illinois State University. He is also the head of the Constitution Reform Commission formed by the interim government.

'Bangladesh will not feature prominently on Trump's agenda'

Shafquat Rabbee, Bangladeshi-American Geopolitical Columnist 

Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are in a statistical tie in opinion polls across major battleground states in America. While it is likely that Kamala Harris will win the popular vote, just like Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden did against Donald Trump in the past, the electoral college maths currently appears to be leaning in Trump's favour. The data suggests that we are in a dead heat, with either candidate equally capable of securing victory. 

The American electorate remains evenly divided, with roughly 1-2% of traditional Democratic voters unlikely to support Harris and a similar percentage of traditional Republican voters hesitant to vote for Trump, making the final outcome so unpredictable.

This election may not be even decided on 5 November, with the possibility of legal uncertainties and recounts extending the process for weeks.

Globally, various groups are anxiously watching the election outcome. Ukrainians are bracing for their future if Trump were to win, Chinese businesses are concerned about potential impacts, and Bangladeshis are particularly focused on the American election, worried about any adverse impacts on their newly found liberation from tyranny. 

Bangladesh's political calculations hinge on the belief that Trump may be inclined to support Sheikh Hasina, the ousted dictator who had fled to India. This speculation arose from reports that a Trump-aligned lobbying firm has recently been hired. A latest tweet from Trump with unusually detailed yet misleading statements on Bangladesh's human rights situation raised the alarm level higher. 

Some even fear that Trump could intervene on Hasina's behalf, as leaked conversations suggest she anticipates political turbulence or even a government collapse in Bangladesh around November right after the American election.

Setting aside the political hype surrounding Trump's possible return, let's examine the Bangladesh situation from the perspective of American foreign policy.

Historically, the US has rarely sought to help any ousted dictator return to power, especially within mere months of their regimes' collapse. American foreign policy operates within practical constraints; the US is neither omnipotent nor inclined to undertake reckless missions. Though Trump's colourful style may be marked by bold statements and unconventional moves, US foreign policy is ultimately guided by seasoned professionals regardless of the president in office. Consequently, it is unlikely that anyone would undertake a politically risky mission to reinstate a fallen Bangladeshi dictator.

The most probable course for US foreign policy toward Bangladesh will be one of continuity in key areas aligned with established American strategic interests. Despite Trump's individualistic style, his foreign policy toward Bangladesh would likely remain consistent with previous administrations, emphasising economic ties, regional stability, counterterrorism, and minimal interference in Bangladesh's internal affairs.

Given Trump's "America First" approach, it's likely that Bangladesh will not feature prominently on his agenda. While there could be some visits from American officials and perhaps occasional statements from Trump himself about Bangladesh, any systematic effort to undermine the interim Yunus government or a future political administration solely to favour Hasina's return to Bangladesh appears improbable.

The most likely developments under a potential Trump administration would involve a lack of focus on peripheral American interests in Bangladesh. This lack of focus could create space for Hasina's allies to apply pressure, primarily psychological, on Bangladesh's government. 

Issues concerning minority rights may frequently appear in Indian media and in Washington, spurred by Trump-aligned lobbyists and American-Indian interest groups. 

For Bangladesh's government, engaging mainstream American institutions, think tanks, international media, and, if necessary, American public relations firms and lobbyists will be essential to conveying Bangladesh's realities. The government must also demonstrate a commitment to ensuring the safety and security of Bangladeshi minorities.

Additionally, the rise of Islamic fundamentalism and radical Islamist parties in Bangladesh may become a focal point under Trump. A potential Trump administration is likely to issue strong statements and pressure Bangladesh to take a hard stance against Islamic extremism.

Trump's approach to foreign policy is largely transactional, underpinned by his "America First" philosophy. This also creates potential opportunities for the Bangladeshi government to align with Trump on strategic and economic matters that could mutually benefit both countries.

It's worth remembering that during Trump's previous term, the US provided substantial aid to Bangladesh amid the Rohingya refugee crisis. Even under Trump's first "America First" administration, the US became the largest single-country donor for humanitarian relief, aiding Bangladesh in sheltering and feeding over a million Rohingyas — much as any other US administration would have done. 

In addition, after the 2016 Holy Artisan terrorist attack, the Trump administration continued to offer security and law enforcement assistance to Bangladesh, maintaining Obama era precedent of US support.

And while Trump instigated trade conflicts globally, Bangladesh was excluded from any new trade barriers. The foreign policy toward Bangladesh during Trump's first term was quite traditional, and it is likely to remain so in any second term, assuming he is re-elected. 

Anyone predicting the impact of a US presidency on Bangladesh must bear in mind that American presidents, despite their power, cannot unilaterally alter the trajectories of sovereign nations like Bangladesh. If that were the case, third-world leaders would be reshuffled at the whim of the American presidents; that is certainly not the case. 

Achieving US objectives in a distant country like Bangladesh requires an alignment of numerous factors, substantial planning, and investment—actions that presidents cannot take without solid rationale, bipartisan support, and the collaboration of professional diplomats and national security experts. 

Given these realities, the most likely impact of a Trump presidency on Bangladesh would be one of "neglect," as the country may not be a significant priority for his administration. Such neglect could in turn benefit the incumbent government in Bangladesh and might also marginally benefit India to get its messages across in Bangladesh. 

The ultimate settlement of Bangladesh's political destiny takes place in Bangladesh's streets. Hasina's men are nowhere to be found there at the moment, and they are likely to be absent for a long time, with or without Trump's good fortunes in America.

Shafquat Rabbee is a Bangladeshi-American geopolitical columnist.