Why Putin is no longer visible in int'l summits

President Vladimir Putin of Russia will be unable to attend the G20 Summit in New Delhi, the Kremlin announced last week. Vladimir Putin was also the odd man out among the BRICS leaders in Johannesburg last week. While all the others attended the meetings in person, Putin dialled in on a video call. Putin will also skip the East Asia Summit in Jakarta.

The reason? South Africa and Russia have strong ties and a long history of cooperation, but South Africa is also a signatory to the treaty of the International Court of Justice. This meant that if Putin set foot on South African soil, they would be bound by law to arrest him under the ICC warrant.

South Africa lobbied Putin for months before the summit to stay at home and avoid the problem, which ultimately resulted in Putin staying at home, despite the worst of the Covid-19 pandemic being in the rearview mirror.

However, the Russian premiere will go to China for the Belt and Road Forum in October. If he does, it will be his first foreign trip since the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for him in connection with alleged war crimes.

What has Putin skipped so far?

Russia's President announced his inability to attend the G20 Leaders' Summit in Bali in November 2022. Putin has since missed a number of important international events.

He has stated that he will be unable to attend the East Asia Summit, a high-level meeting of Asian leaders, which will be held in Jakarta next month. 

His decision to skip the G20 Summit in Delhi is the most recent major summit he has skipped. Though India isn't a signatory to the ICC, Putin will only travel to nations where his security service can fully ensure his safety, and one of those nations is China, according to Bloomberg.

Putin last visited China just before the start of the Ukrainian war, when he attended the Winter Olympics in Beijing and met with Xi Jinping, during which the two sides declared a "no limits" partnership. Xi, on the other hand, travelled to Moscow for a state visit in March.

The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation leaders meeting in September 2022 was his most recent major international event. In addition, he attended the Eurasian Economic Forum in May of this year.

What is driving this streak of absences?

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has told international media that Putin will be unable to attend the G20 Summit in Delhi due to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Experts believe Putin is aware of Russia's international isolation as a result of the war.

The G20 Summit's joint statement in Bali was harshly critical of Russia's violation of international law in its invasion of Ukraine. This may have influenced his decision to skip this year's summit in New Delhi. 

Putin was also unable to attend the BRICS Summit due to an International Criminal Court arrest warrant issued for his actions in Ukraine. The South African authorities may have been obligated to arrest Putin.

In fact, by visiting any of the 123 countries that are members of the International Criminal Court, he risks being arrested on warrants for alleged war crimes.

Putin has not left Russia since the warrant was issued by the Hague court in March, though he has visited Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine. Putin has only travelled to former Soviet Union neighbouring countries and Iran, which has been supplying drones to the Russian military since the invasion of Ukraine.

How is Russia dealing with it?

Media outlets report that during a phone call with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Putin cited his "busy schedule" and said that his main focus is still the "special military operation" in Ukraine, explaining his inability to attend the G-20 summit in New Delhi in September.

Putin also stated that Russia would be represented at the summit by Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. Lavrov also served in this capacity at last year's Leaders' Summit. He was also present in person at last week's BRICS Summit, while Putin participated virtually.

Lavrov is known for being acerbic and occasionally prickly and he went as far as walking out of the July 2022 G20 Foreign Ministers Meeting after Russia's war in Ukraine was heavily criticised.