What does Guterres’ visit signal for the Rohingyas in Bangladesh?
Last year, heightened tensions at the Bangladesh-Myanmar border once again sidelined discussions on the Rohingya refugee crisis. While repatriation efforts never truly gained momentum, the Russia- Ukraine war in 2022 reshuffled priorities, causing a substantial dip in humanitarian aid for the Rohingya in Bangladesh. This year, US President Trump’s decision to cut USAID funding has further worsened the conditions of the refugee camp residents in Cox’s Bazar. As UN Secretary-General Antonio Gueterres makes his second visit to the camps, TBS speaks to experts and stakeholders to understand its implications
Guterres likely to discuss USAID fund cuts, alternative sources
M Humayun Kabir
Former Bangladesh Ambassador to US
I think there are two main reasons why the UN Secretary-General is visiting Bangladesh at this time.
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Firstly, he will be able to gauge the political climate of the country post-July Uprising. He will be able to offer help with technical matters when it comes to the upcoming election and how to make it more inclusive.
The second reason is that he will be focusing on the Rohingya crisis. I think there are three dimensions here that are very important.
The first dimension is the matter of aid. Donald Trump has shut down US aid for the world, causing severe problems. Guterres will discuss how to handle this unprecedented development. He will try to raise funds to fill in the gap that the US has left. It is possible to receive funds from elsewhere. Canada has announced aid to Bangladesh, and Germany is a capable option as well.
The second dimension is the unrest and civil war currently unfolding in Myanmar and the Rakhine state. There is a big risk here for Bangladesh because it can mean that more Rohingyas will try to come here, which Bangladesh absolutely does not want. The UN has suggested that Bangladesh help repatriate the Rohingyas. I saw in a newspaper article that Professor Yunus agrees with repatriation on principle. The interim government has announced that it will hold an international conference on the Rohinigya crisis later this year, so we are trying to achieve a positive outcome. Guterres will visit Rohingya camps, and will be part of many programmes. His words are very influential, so this is an important moment for Bangladesh.
However, repatriation is the third dimension and may also be difficult, given the state of Myanmar. The Bangladesh government may have agreed to this arrangement, but will the Arakan Army? If things get worse, we may see another exodus. It is crucial that we open a channel of communication with the Arakan Army from our side. We have to try to work with them. If we establish communication, with time, we might be able to come to an agreement.
TBS' Alhan Arsal spoke to Humayun Kabir over the phone.
Guterres visit revives Rohingya discussion, an old priority for Bangladesh
Professor ASM Ali Ashraf
Chairman, Department of International Relations, DU
UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres' visit is very significant for a number of reasons. Globally, the Rohingya issue, I think, was losing momentum. Other crises, such as the Ukrainian crisis, have dominated the discourse. So, reviving the issue has long been a priority for Bangladesh. I think the Dr Yunus-led interim government has done the right thing by elevating the status of the Rohingya crisis at the international level.
The UN chief's visit is the recognition of the fact that this remains one of the most protracted refugee crises in the world and that it deserves attention.
But there are two other important things.
One is the funding issue. The Joint Response Plan, which is a UN-centric appeal to the international community, is usually underfunded. (Developed under the Bangladesh government, JRP is an annual fundraising document which includes the assessed needs of Rohingya refugees and affected host communities).
On average, each year, the UN bodies ask for $1 billion for managing the Rohingya response in Bangladesh. I think the data would show that about $600 million has been funded over the last few years.
Not only have we been hosting more than a million Rohingya refugees, but there have been recent influxes as the Arakan Army has taken over some parts of Rakhine. These influxes have seen an incremental increase in the number of Rohingya refugees.
This leads to more demand for monetary and humanitarian aid, so this visit would, I expect, give a boost for the funding appeals. I am sure the Bangladeshi authorities will be closely watching the UN systems to push for more budget.
The third element behind this visit, what I understand, is that in some pockets of Rakhine, the Rohingya are facing a food crisis. Most possibly, the UN chief will be exploring opportunities to open some corridors to deliver some food assistance to those Rohingya groups who are at risk of famine.
As a social scientist and student of international relations, I have to say we have to prepare for the worst and keep the communication lines open with the Arakan Army and other stakeholders to ensure no more new batches of Rohingya (fleeing violence across the border) come to Bangladesh. Around 35,000 to 50,000 people of Rohingya origin came to Bangladesh in the last year — something that is, interestingly, not much talked about.
I think repatriation is something very much desired, but I do not see repatriation on the horizon because the Arakan Army have not taken any significant step to ensure that after regaining territory from the Myanmar army, they are willing to give the Rohingya their rights, ensure safe return, etc. A lot has to be done to start the repatriation process.
TBS' Nusmila Lohani spoke to Professor ASM Ali Ashraf over the phone.
Before repatriation, we need basic human rights
Mohammed Salim Khan
Kutupalong Refugee Camp Resident
In 2018, when the UN Secretary-General António Guterres visited, it gave us hope. We were hopeful that the repatriation would take place, ensuring our safety and security. We are still hopeful. He is coming to the camps [on 14 March]. I have been invited to the Iftar (being attended by the UN Chief) by my camp-in-charge; they arranged for many of us to have Iftar together. All this is giving us reason to feel hopeful.
The UN chief does not visit just any place, so his second visit boosts our confidence — we feel as though the interim government and the UN are trying to bring a positive change for us.
I have been following the news in Myanmar. If we are to be repatriated, our safety has to be ensured. So I really do not know how, given how things are there now, repatriation can happen safely.
Recently, the USAID fund cut stopped a lot of work inside the camps. Now, there are more challenges. For example, there was handicap support, along with mental health support; there is so much despair, especially among those older than 40 years of age. We are seeing a lot of this work coming to a halt.
I have spoken to a couple of organisations, they say it is an effect of the USAID fund cut. Until a permanent and safe solution [repatriation] is found, we need basic human rights. We are people, just like everyone else.
Now we are hearing that the UN will cut monthly food rations to Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh from $12.50 to $6 — this will make things much worse for us again. We plan to address this on Friday.
Before repatriation, we need basic human rights to be able to survive.
Mohammed Salim Khan is the 2023 UNHCR Nansen refugee regional (Asia and Pacific) award winner and founder of the Rohingya Photography School. His photos have appeared on Al Jazeera, Reuters, The Guardian and other news outlets. He also serves as a fire safety instructor and flash flood rescue instructor across various camps. TBS' Nusmila Lohani spoke to him over the phone.
