We should not assume that more people necessarily mean more environmental degradation: UNFPA Country Representative

According to the United Nations Population Division, the world population is set to reach eight billion today. As we await the birth of the Earth's eight billionth inhabitant, we are faced with questions like what does it mean for humanity? What does this mean for countries like Bangladesh? 

The Business Standard sat down with UNFPA Country Representative Kristine Blokhus to find some answers.

Ms Blokhus, a national of Norway, earlier served as UNFPA's Representative to the State of Palestine, leading UNFPA's humanitarian response and development programming in areas of sexual and reproductive health, gender-based violence, and youth and adolescent empowerment across the Gaza Strip and the West Bank. Prior to this, she served as Deputy Representative with UNFPA in Nepal. 

Today, the global population is expected to hit 8 billion. By 2057, this figure is expected to become 10 billion. What does it mean for climate change and our environment? If we have issues with overpopulation now, what might be its impact on our planet then?

Humanity certainly faces serious challenges. Safeguarding our planet in the face of the climate crisis is the biggest imperative of our lifetimes. 

But we should be careful about assuming that more people necessarily means a more detrimental impact on the environment. Look at the statistics of carbon emitters. It is the rich countries, those with very high per capita consumption of material resources, that is to blame for the highest emissions of greenhouse gases. Meanwhile, the countries with higher fertility levels - where most people are concentrated- tend to be those with the lowest income per capita. 

At the same time, the world's population is actually about to start to decline in most parts of the world. Slower population growth in the coming decades could help to mitigate the further accumulation of environmental damage in the second half of the current century. 

Either way, there are no two ways about it: we must change the way we live in order to reduce our carbon footprint. Policies that promote a transition to green energy are examples of the kind of action we need. 

Amid rapid demographic transition, we are seeing opposite trends in population growth. In some countries, primarily the rich ones, the population is decreasing, whereas poorer countries have a population boom. How would you interpret these two opposite trends and what do they mean for our future? 

You are right. The countries of sub-Saharan Africa are projected to drive global population growth in this century.

More than half of the projected increase in global population up to the middle of this century will be concentrated in eight countries: India, Pakistan, Nigeria, Ethiopia, Congo, Egypt, the Philippines, and Tanzania. 

But there is an interesting trend happening that we should be aware of: 

In 2020, the global population growth rate fell under 1% per year for the first time since 1950. 

It took the global population 12 years to grow from 7 to 8 billion. It is projected to take about 15 years for it to reach 9 billion in 2037. In other words, global population growth is slowing down.

This is true in Bangladesh as well. Here, like in many countries, fertility rates are approaching 2.1 births per woman, which is what we refer to as the 'replacement rate'. Anything under this rate means the population is shrinking. Today two-thirds of the global population actually live in a country or area where fertility is below 2.1.

Why this reduction? It is usually connected to urbanisation and girls' education, factors which increase the opportunities available to women. As women enter the labour force and contribute to the economy, economic growth accelerates, and fertility rates decline. 

We are witnessing this trend all around the world at the moment. The UN projections indicate that in the future, the global population will stabilise at something between 9 and 10 billion people.

People worldwide are living longer. Today, most people can expect to live well into their sixties and perhaps beyond. What are the challenges in responding to an ageing population? 

Yes! The reason we at UNFPA are keen to celebrate reaching the 8 billion milestone is that it represents enormous progress for humanity. People are indeed living longer. Fewer people die young of preventable diseases. Fewer mothers, and fewer babies, die in childbirth; people remain healthy and active and productive far longer than just a few decades ago. It is, overall, a cause for celebration. 

Yet, of course, we now must plan ahead; how do we plan for a population that is older, on average? We need to consider pensions, universal health care and social care systems and ensure that we can protect and nurture the older generation.

The share of the global population aged 65 years or above is currently 10%. In Bangladesh, the share is 6% and the absolute number is about 10 million, according to the latest population census. The projected number of older people in the country will be around 30 million in 2041 and 55 million by 2061. This reflects an increased life expectancy at birth, which is about 72.6 years, with women living 3.1 years more than men.

There is a gender dimension to ageing that we also need to factor in. Because of the female advantage in life expectancy, women outnumber men at older ages in almost all populations. Older women have a higher life expectancy, yet they are often less healthy. Thus, specific interventions should be taken to address their morbidity and disability-related burden.

There is a wide range of needs among older people linked to different aspects of care and support. They are predominantly dependent on the informal system to avail care and support.

In Bangladesh, Old Age Allowance, National Policy for Older Persons 2013 and Parents Care Act 2013 are some of the government initiatives that provide care and support to the elderly. However, their coverage is relatively low and this is particularly so in the case of the urban poor.

Some economists argue that population growth is a good thing because it drives up gross economic output and innovation. But if population growth and economic activity lead to environmental degradation and further climate change, leading to more human suffering and deaths, higher average incomes cannot justify further degradation. In this respect, do you think market interests and societal interests always converge in this respect?

Indeed, there are high environmental costs associated with economic growth leading to global climate change. But again, we should not assume that more people necessarily mean more environmental degradation. That depends on how we live, how we consume, and how well we collectively innovate to find greener solutions. 

Currently, 65.6% of Bangladesh's population is of working age (15 to 64 years). How can Bangladesh harness the demographic dividend and turn it into a strength to achieve further economic growth and what may be the UNDP's role in it? Given that half of the country's population is women, has Bangladesh done enough to exploit its gender dividend? What is UNFPA's approach to empowering the country's female population?

We talk a lot about the 'demographic dividend. What we are referring to is a period of time when a sharp decline in fertility creates a situation where we have a large productive working-age population and a relatively small dependent population – i.e., the oldest and the youngest. 

In Bangladesh, the latest census shows that 64% of people are in the working age group. Theoretically, this gives us an opportunity for a demographic dividend. 

But of course, that really depends on the working-age population. Are these people healthy? Are they educated? Do they have good jobs and an opportunity to contribute? Realising a demographic dividend requires multiple intersecting investments to empower, educate and employ a country's young people. 

While Bangladesh is now benefiting from its favourable demographic changes, there are a few concerns about fully realising the country's demographic dividend. The prevalence of early marriage and adolescent pregnancy remains very high, which excludes them from accessing education and gainful employment. 

We also see quite a high dropout rate from high school and a relatively low percentage of girls enrolled in tertiary education. Female labour force participation is also low, which means only half the population contributes to the economy.  Additionally, there are not enough good jobs for the young people who are entering the job market, so we have a high youth unemployment rate.

These are some of the reasons we at UNFPA are so concerned with empowering the country's adolescents and youth, and especially girls. We have targeted programmes to reduce gender-based violence, child marriage, and other harmful practices, to promote life skills education, and to provide sexual and reproductive health services to adolescents. 

Finally, the point I would like to stress is that investment in health and education holds the key to ensuring high returns from its youthful population. The government will probably wish to increase its education spending to 3% of GDP and health spending to 2% of GDP by FY2025 in line with the 8th Five-year plan in order to realise these possibilities. 

Amid steady population growth, we see more and more people flocking to urban areas, resulting in the proliferation of slums that lack basic health and other services. What are UNFPA's strategies to reach out to the urban poor?

This is such an important question and one we are thinking about a lot. Currently, 32% of people, or roughly 52 million people, live in urban areas, according to the 2022 population census. This rapid growth of the urban population is fueled by the migration of the rural poor to towns and cities, drawn by perceived chances of finding employment and pushed by limited opportunities in the countryside. 

However, most of the migrants live in slums where basic services are few and far between. We saw how vulnerable they are during the Covid pandemic. According to the Slum Census 2014, about 22 million people live in urban slum settlements, which are generally excluded from public-sector resources, severely limiting access of residents to formal education, healthcare services, and water and sanitation. The ministry of health and family welfare should be empowered to extend healthcare services to the urban poor. 

In the current country programme, UNFPA is placing greater focus on urban centres, especially in Dhaka and Chittagong. The aim is to reach vulnerable people with sexual and reproductive health services as well as the social protection they need to prevent child marriage and other harmful practices. 

Bangladesh is one of the 179 countries in the world that committed to realising the ICPD Programme of Action, particularly the three zeroes agenda: zero preventable maternal deaths, zero unmet need for family planning, and zero gender-based violence and other harmful practices. Where does Bangladesh stand in this regard? What needs to be done to realise the three zeroes agenda?

Bangladesh has an incredible success story to tell: progress has been remarkable. But despite these achievements, we must make no mistake: a maternal mortality ratio of 163 deaths per 100,000 live births is still unacceptably high. 12% of currently married women would like to be using contraception but cannot – either because it is not available to her or because she is unable to make that choice for herself. 

Over half of married women report facing violence. And half of the Bangladeshi girls aged 20-24 years are married or in a union before age 15 and before age 18, the highest in South Asia.

To address all these issues and to achieve the SDGs, UNFPA is deploying several strategies. We assist the government in developing its capacity to run targeted programmes in hard-to-reach and other priority areas, partner with CSOs to promote a specific commitment to reaching ICPD goals and work with the Parliamentarians to influence policies to realise the three zeroes. The Covid-19 pandemic has been a huge challenge to meet many targets involving the three zeroes. However, I can see a renewed commitment from the government, CSOs, and other actors. 

We are just seven years away from 2030, and we need to work harder than ever. We need to invest more in strengthening primary healthcare clinics in the countryside, Upzilla-level healthcare facilities, and urban centres. The laws we have on child marriage and gender-based violence are good – but they require much better implementation. 

We also need civil society to play a major part. The task of achieving the three zeros is a major challenge: we need all hands on deck.