The Shinawatras are back in business

Infograph: TBS

Several thousand 'red shirts' - the grassroots rural movement that emerged after Thaksin Shinawatra's government was ousted from power after the 2006 coup - danced and cheered as the plane carrying him touched down. It was an emotional moment for many as the former prime minister was finally setting foot on home soil after 15 years in self-imposed exile.

Although Thaksin's daughter Paetongtarn Shinawatra failed to recreate his magic at the polls held last May, Pheu Thai, the most recent version of Thaksin's political party, still secured the second position. So the divisive 74-year-old politician remains as relevant as ever, but his role remains unclear as he was arrested soon after he landed in Thailand.

The progressive Move Forward Party which secured the pole position in the elections have been facing challenges in forming a government due to the lack of support from the military-appointed senators in the upper house. In response, the Pheu Thai managed to form a coalition with a collection of parties, including those that had the backing of the military.

On Tuesday, Thailand's parliament gathered to select a new prime minister after three months of political deadlock, with real-estate tycoon Srettha Thavisin, representing Pheu Thai, the sole candidate to face the vote in Thailand's bicameral legislature. Srettha has the support of 314 legislators in the lower house but needs 58 more votes to secure the job, which requires a majority in both houses.

Thaksin Shinawatra and his family have dominated Thai elections for the better part of the last two decades, leading the royalist establishment to view the clan as a threat to its political power. Thaksin's return to Thailand at a time when the country's various factions are negotiating deals to form a new government, and his own party teaming up with military-backed parties — the same military that ousted him and his sister from power, is likely to make things even more complicated in Southeast Asia's second-largest economy.

Shinawatras 101

The Shinawatras are Thailand's most prominent political dynasty, descended from a Chinese immigrant who married a Thai woman in the late nineteenth century, with two of its members holding the country's top political office at different times in the last 22 years. 

Thaksin, 74, has been a divisive but enduring figure in Thai politics since his election as prime minister in 2001. In 2005, a landslide victory for his Thai Rak Thai Party earned him a second term in office, which was abruptly ended a year later in a military coup.

Thaksin fled Thailand in 2008 to avoid politically motivated corruption charges. His sister Yingluck, who became Thailand's first female prime minister after her Pheu Thai Party won an election in 2011, faced a similar fate. She was deposed by judicial order in 2014, and her government was deposed again in a coup a few weeks later. 

After nearly nine years of military-backed rule, Thaksin's youngest daughter, 36-year-old Paetongtarn, ran for prime minister in May of this year. Pheu Thai came in second place, trailing the progressive Move Forward Party, which is popular among young and urban voters.

How did the Shinawatras get so rich?

Thaksin likes to portray himself as a self-made man from humble beginnings, but the truth is that his family was already prosperous when he was a child. His ancestors' fortune stemmed from a silk business they established in the country's north in the early twentieth century.

During his 14-year police career, Thaksin dabbled in silk retail, cinemas, real estate, and computer leasing, with little success, before striking it rich in the 1980s and 1990s technology boom. Because of his foresight in the computer industry and political connections, he was able to secure government concessions to operate paging and mobile phone services, cable TV subscriptions, data networks, card phones, and satellites.

His Shin Corporation, now known as Intouch Holdings, owned Thai mobile operator Advanced Info Service and satellite firm Shin Satellite (now Thaicom) at the height of its success. Shin Corp was sold in 2006 to Singapore's state investment firm, Temasek Holdings Pte.

Despite his Thai assets being frozen in 2007, he purchased the Manchester City football club and later sold it for a sizable profit.

Today, members of the Shinawatra family, including Thaksin's ex-wife and three children—Panthongtae, Pintongta, and Paetongtarn — own majority or controlling stakes in businesses ranging from real estate to healthcare and hospitality. Some of these companies are publicly traded in Thailand, including property developer SC Asset, which is run by Thaksin's son-in-law, Uttaphong Kunakornwong.

Shinawatra's rise and fall

The Shinawatras' electoral and financial clout make them a formidable rival to Thailand's traditional elite, which has dominated the country's powerful state institutions since the end of absolute monarchy in 1932.

Thaksin, a clever operator who doesn't mind saying what's on his mind, entered politics in the mid-1990s, initially serving as foreign minister and then deputy prime minister. In 1998, he founded the Thai Rak Thai (Thais Love Thais), which eventually led him to power.

2001 was the year of his "Thaksinomics" expansion, when he spent more on healthcare, rural development, and farm subsidies. But the arrogant Thaksin, self-styled as Thailand's first "CEO prime minister", faced accusations that he was undermining the revered monarch.

Critics have accused him of using his electoral mandate to systematically dismantle constitutional checks and balances, thereby solidifying his authoritarian rule. Opposition among the urban middle class and traditional elite grew as they feared that he was merely a capitalist making more money by abusing his power. They were concerned that his firm Shin Corp was benefiting unfairly from his rule through government contracts.

Things came to a head in 2006 when he sold his Shin Corporation shares to Singapore's Temasek for 73.3 billion baht ($2.08 billion). His opponents accused him of having a conflict of interest, claiming that the prime minister's family did not pay taxes on capital gains from the deal. In September 2006, the military used middle-class fury to stage a bloodless coup.

Thaksin vs the establishment

The  royalist establishment made up of army generals, judges and senior civil servants sees the clan as a threat to its political power

Thaksin's entrepreneurial success, as well as his credo of personal ambition and dignity, echoed the American Dream and resonated with many ordinary Thais who had grown dissatisfied with previous political leaders' paternalistic style. While many wealthy, well-educated, and urban Thais accused Thaksin of cronyism, reckless populism, and corruption, he had widespread support among poorer and working-class voters in the country's north and northeast, who made up the majority of Thai voters and benefited from his big-ticket 'Thaksinomics' economic programmes.

The establishment perceived the growing support for Thaksin as a potential challenge to the social hierarchy of the country, where the monarchy is commonly regarded as occupying the top position.

Why are the Sinwatras still popular?

Following the Asian financial crisis in 1997, Thaksin spent heavily on grassroots measures to stimulate domestic demand, such as debt moratorium plans for farmers, low-cost housing projects, and loans for small and medium-sized businesses.

To the rural masses, Thaksin is loved as the first leader to pay attention to the needs of millions living beyond Bangkok's bright lights.

His signature universal healthcare initiative of 2002 revolutionised access to medical care for the poor and has benefited millions of Thais two decades later. Forty-seven million Thais, or 70% of the country's population, possess its "gold card."

Between 2001 and 2019, Thaksin-affiliated political parties were able to win the most parliamentary seats, thanks to the loyalty this instilled in less affluent voters. However, in four consecutive elections, the constitutional court either dissolved them or forcibly removed them from power.

To protest Thaksin's removal, supporters formed the pro-democracy "Red Shirt" movement in 2007, which frequently clashed with the rival royalist "Yellow Shirt" group, which sought to eliminate the Shinawatras from Thai politics.

Why did Thaksin and Yingluck flee the country?

Opponents accuse Thaksin of abusing his power to advance the business interests of his family. The sale of the Shinawatras' majority stake in Shin Corp to a foreign company was viewed as the final straw, and Yellow Shirt protests ultimately led to his downfall at the time.

Before and after the 2006 coup, Thaksin claimed assassination attempts were made against him, causing him to fear for his safety if he remained in Thailand. His ex-wife Pojamarn Damapong was convicted of tax evasion in connection with a transfer of Shin Corp shares, and Thaksin fled the country in 2008 to avoid corruption charges. 

He has spent the intervening years commuting between Hong Kong, Singapore, Dubai, and London, and has been found guilty in absentia of four instances of graft. The offenses included illegally concealing Shin Corp shares and conflicts of interest regarding a state bank loan to Myanmar that Shin Satellite benefited from. Thaksin faces a ten-year prison sentence if he returns to Thailand.

A court later sentenced Yingluck to five years in prison for criminal negligence in a rice subsidy programme that cost the state billions of dollars. Yingluck fled the country in 2017, and she was subsequently convicted of criminal negligence.