Shadow of Iran looms over ‘new beginning’ in Bangladesh

Over the past 55 years, Bangladesh has seen more violent changes and "new beginnings" than is probably good for the health of such a young nation-state. Now, with the inauguration of the newly-elected parliament, the country has embarked on yet another "new journey."

The year 2026 thus joins other dates — 1973, 1979, 1991, 1996 and 2009 — when election of a new parliament, following seismic political events of varied magnitude, was expected to usher in changes. But the fact that phrases such as "new beginning", "new Bangladesh" etc are uttered so regularly and effortlessly proves the expectations remain largely unfulfilled.

While each "regime change" event created hope for positive change, the outcome always left a bitter taste of disappointment in people's mouth. The expectations created by the dramatic and often bloody events were always high, but the politicians who took charge afterwards often failed to deliver.

What remains to be seen is, whether this new era will usher in the kind of socio-political and economic progress that would do justice to expectations. How the 13th parliament, which was inaugurated on Thursday, goes about its business will give some hints about what lies ahead.

The opening session of the new parliament saw some ugly scenes, but these were not the usual "opposition-trying-to-heckle-and-disrupt-the-government" type of scenes. The Jamaat-e-Islami and NCP members walked out to protest President Mohammad Shahabuddin's very presence in the House, rather than the content of his speech.

Shahabuddin's fate

Jamaat's position is that the President, who was elected in 2023 on Awami League's nomination, has "no right" to deliver the speech in parliament. This is a rather odd argument. If anyone has the "right" to give the new parliament's inaugural address, then it is the president.

President Shahabuddin has two more years of his term remaining, but there is little doubt some in the opposition, particularly the NCP, will spend a lot of their time and energy trying to dislodge him. Shahabuddin has himself said in a recent interview that he'd resign if asked to do so by the government. The ball is firmly in Prime Minister Tarique Rahman's court, but one would assume he'd have far more urgent tasks at hand.

The new parliament will have to navigate through a political and constitutional minefield, especially in dealing with the result of the referendum on the July Charter.

The president's speech, which set out the government's policy agenda for the year ahead, did not shed much light on the subject. But it is going to be a complex battle with the Jamaat-NCP bloc, who would want to see the Charter incorporated into the Constitution lock, stock and barrel. The BNP, on the other hand, may wish to pick and choose.

But the battle over the Charter is likely to be more feisty than any disagreement over the 133 Ordinances issued by the President since August 8, 2024, under instruction from the erstwhile interim regime headed by Muhammad Yunus. The BNP has no obligation to pass the Ordinances, other than the need to avoid any complications in governance.

But the Charter is a different kettle of fish altogether.

Nizami-Mujahid 'mourned'

This document was drawn up by a group of people appointed by Yunus and later endorsed — with notes of dissent on many clauses — by 24 political parties. The proposals should have been forwarded to the elected parliament for consideration, since it is parliament's job to enact laws and amend the constitution.

Parliament is supposed to be the highest legislative authority in the country, and not any commission appointed by the head of the government. But Yunus, evidently, had different ideas.

The Yunus government put the Charter, including the clauses that had notes of dissent, to the electorate in a referendum which resulted in a majority affirmative vote. This seriously complicates life for the BNP, which clearly does not have the stomach for at least some of the reform proposals.

It would now require a great deal of political, legal and constitutional footwork on the BNP's part, if they wish to ignore some of the reform proposals contained in the final shape of the Charter.

But the BNP has already shown itself to be supremely eager to appease its new-found rivals, Jamaat. While the president's speech paid homage to the martyrs of the Liberation War, the BNP MPs joined their opposition counterparts to "mourn" leaders of the Jamaat who were convicted and sentenced, several to death, for crimes against humanity committed in 1971.

It could not have been lost on the BNP that Jamaat-e-Islami were the principal collaborators of the Pakistan Army during their genocide of the Bengali people in 1971. To agree to include the names of Motiur Rahman Nizami, Ali Ahsan Mohammad Mujahid and others to the condolence motion was as tone deaf as they come.

Tarique Rahman's challenge

While the BNP figures out how to put its huge majority to use in the Jatiya Sangsad, Prime Minister Tarique Rahman has far more immediate tasks to tackle in the economic and foreign policy arenas.

The new government, which has been in office for less than a month, has already been dealt a very difficult hand. Rahman takes over after 18 months rule by the interim government which is credited with "stabilising" the banking sector but left behind an economy suffering from the rare combination of stagnation, high inflation and rising unemployment.

While the new government moved quickly to fulfil one of its key election pledges by launching the Family Card scheme, the joint US-Israeli war on Iran has created the kind of economic pressure any government in Bangladesh can do without.

The war has already created an energy shortage in Bangladesh and raised fears of further spikes in inflation. Continued disruption of supply of oil and gas from the Gulf could prove extremely challenging for Bangladesh.

The International Energy Agency's decision to release 400 million barrels of oil from its strategic reserves was expected to ease the pressure. But if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed to traffic, few expect release of this amount from the reserves to have any meaningful impact on prices.

On the positive side, however, the US lifted some of its sanctions on Russian oil, which will allow major oil importers like India to create a cushion. Bangladesh can also explore buying Russian oil. Iran has also reportedly agreed to allow vessels carrying LNG to Bangladesh to pass through the Strait of Hormuz which they are currently blockading.

Iran, Israel and the home-front

The new government, when it was sworn-in by President Shahabuddin last month, expected restoration of law and order, and revival of the economy to be its two biggest and most urgent challenges. Those challenges have now become even more pressing and difficult to counter, especially in light of events in the Persian Gulf.

Perhaps the president's speech could not be amended or updated in the two weeks since the US and Israel launched their war, even though the impact of conflict began to be visible in the streets within days. While the president did acknowledge the challenge facing the economy in light of events externally and the low revenue-to-GDP ratio at home, the speech seemed to attach little urgency to the situation in the Gulf.

One example of this disconnect was the line devoted to inflation: "Point to point inflation has declined from 9.94 per cent in January of 2025 to 8.58 per cent in January 2026. It is hoped that the declining trend will continue in the months ahead," the President said, reading from the text prepared by the government.

The president was speaking on March 12, yet new figures already showed inflation had climbed to 9.13 per cent in February. The hope he expressed was already forlorn, and that was even before the war started. How the government hoped to slow down inflation in "the months ahead" remained unexplained.

In the context of the war in the Gulf and its likely impact on Bangladesh, one would have expected the President's speech to spend less paragraphs on eulogising the prime minister's father, the late President Ziaur Rahman, and spend more time on the government's action plan to face the calamity that might yet unfold in the Gulf and beyond. 

Sketch: TBS

The writer is a former Head, BBC Bangla and former Managing Editor, VOA Bangla. The writer can be contacted at: sabir.mustafa@gmail.com. Follow on X: @Sabir59

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and views of The Business Standard.