Mecca Pact: Security shield or foreign policy gamble?

As speculation mounts over an invitation to join the Mecca Pact, Bangladesh finds itself at a historic foreign policy crossroads.

Geographically isolated from other Muslim-majority states and long committed to a doctrine of strict non-alignment, Dhaka must now balance the promise of collective defence against the risks of entering a formal military bloc.

Proponents argue the alliance would provide vital strategic depth and enhance national security, while sceptics warn it could compromise diplomatic autonomy, alienate key regional partners, and entangle the country in distant Middle Eastern conflicts.

Leading diplomats and scholars weigh in on what is at stake for Bangladesh.

Being part of alliance does not mean all members will go to war together: Major General (retired) Fazle Elahi Akbar

We have not yet received any concrete proposal to join the Mecca Pact. However, there is talk that such a proposal may come to us. If it does, and we are to decide what course of action to take, we first need to understand our geopolitics. 

Look at the map of Bangladesh and consider our geographical position. We are the only Muslim-majority country in the region without another Muslim-majority country on our immediate borders. 

We are essentially an island of Muslim people surrounded by non-Muslims. So, if we face a crisis, our country has very limited strategic depth in terms of its size, width and geographical space.

And there is no guarantee that we will receive help from anyone. Whether an attack comes from the east, west or north, we do not have a friendly state with which we have developed the kind of strategic relationship that could guarantee support. In 55 years, through our foreign policy, we have not managed to establish such a dependable strategic partnership.

So, if this offer comes, I think it would give us an opportunity to become part of an alliance that could help us make our sovereignty and defence architecture more strategically resilient. I would also expect it to bring other economic benefits.

Look at our history. When General Ziaur Rahman was in power, he moved to join the OIC and sought greater engagement with NATO. Why did he do that? When you become a member of multiple alliances, your foreign policy gains greater room and support to pursue national interests.

If such an alliance functions effectively, it could help not only to protect Bangladesh's sovereignty but also to strengthen our national dignity and our ability to take independent decisions. That is why I believe that if an offer comes, we should accept it. And if no offer comes, we should consider proposing our membership ourselves.

Look at NATO. After WWII, NATO adopted Article 5, which establishes the principle that an armed attack against one member is considered an attack against all. In other words, NATO members are committed to responding collectively.

To my knowledge, NATO has invoked Article 5 only once — after the 11 September attacks and the destruction of the Twin Towers. It was in that context that NATO members subsequently participated in operations in Afghanistan.

But NATO was created primarily in response to the threat posed by the Warsaw Pact and the Soviet Union. Even after the Ukraine war began, Ukraine was not a NATO member. Yet because many countries supported Ukraine, they were able to provide it with various forms of assistance.

If Bangladesh were ever in such a situation, who would help us? We have no one around us who is necessarily committed to doing so.

Being part of NATO, or any other alliance, does not automatically mean that all members will go to war together. Since the Second World War, there have been many small wars and armed conflicts around the world. But how often has NATO itself actually gone to war against another major power, such as Russia?

So the argument that joining an alliance would automatically drag us into war is an overextension and an overestimation of the risks. In some cases, I think such arguments are being used to demoralise us and discourage us from joining the alliance.

Major General (retired) Fazle Elahi Akbar is the chairman of the Foundation for Strategic and Development Studies (FSDS).

Sketch: TBS

Longstanding principle of not joining military pacts now being put to test: M Humayun Kabir

I am sure this is only the beginning, and that there are many factors behind the support for this initiative. That is one element of the broader movement.

We also need to look at the other elements in the text of the resolution. We have seen that three countries have been invited, while Iran is reportedly being considered for an invitation.

If Bangladesh is invited, it would need to address several issues, particularly in relation to our longstanding norms and principles regarding military alliances.

As far as I know, Bangladesh has traditionally maintained a policy of not joining military pacts. We have participated in military exercises and maintained military-to-military cooperation, but that is different from entering into a formal military alliance.

This position has historical roots. When Pakistan was a member of CENTO and SEATO, there was strong opposition to those arrangements from political forces in what was then East Pakistan. After independence, this experience contributed to the view that Bangladesh should not enter into military alliances.

So, I think this principle is now being put to the test. The question is how we design our national security policy in the present circumstances.

If this is a military pact, then we have to examine how the security interests of all its members align with Bangladesh's national security interests. We need to understand how the inclusion of countries such as Iran would affect our security, economic interests and broader strategic interests.

We also need to consider what actions Iran itself might take. This is a complicated matter, and we need to assess it carefully.

Economic interests are also extremely important. Economic security is an essential component of national security, so that dimension must be examined as well.

At the same time, we need to consider the interests of the major powers and their interests in Bangladesh. Our first priority should be to ensure that Bangladesh's own national interests remain at the centre of the process.

Just as we have developed security and economic relationships with countries such as China, we need to assess how engagement with Iran would fit into our broader strategic framework. We need to be part of the process of dialogue and engagement so that our interests are protected.

M Humayun Kabir is a former ambassador of Bangladesh to the United States.

Sketch: TBS

Focus should be on building defence capacities without joining any alliance: Asif Shahan

Throughout the history of Bangladesh, the country has always avoided joining any particular bloc and concentrated on striking a balance between competing powers while determining its relationships. 

Joining this pact will significantly shift the country's foreign policy and, henceforth, requires careful consideration and extensive strategic calculation. A detailed cost-benefit analysis is necessary. The country needs to build its defence capacity, and the government has already taken several initiatives to that end.

The larger questions are: Does joining this alliance offer any extra layer of protection? Will that protection be necessary? Or will the countries involved really be in a position to provide it? What is the potential cost of those protection measures? There is a possibility that this may negatively affect the country's trade relationship with its biggest neighbour and may also generate complexities in maintaining relationships with other countries. Given that, is it really worth it? I think, right now for Bangladesh, the focus should be on maintaining close relationships with its bilateral and multilateral development partners and concentrating on building defence capacities without joining any alliance.

I will argue for not joining the pact at this moment, and the government should play the role of an observer to understand how things are unfolding and conduct a detailed cost-benefit analysis.

Asif Shahan is a Professor of Development Studies at the University of Dhaka.

Moving towards one alliance can lead to reactions elsewhere: Md Tanvir Habib

Bangladesh has historically maintained a relatively neutral position in international affairs. At the same time, we have had very close relationships with a number of countries. The key issue, therefore, is whether joining this particular arrangement would be appropriate for Bangladesh.

If we do decide to participate, we need a clear strategy to leverage the opportunity. We should use it to strengthen our existing relationships and advance our national interests.

There could be advantages, particularly in terms of security and economics. But the dynamics of the proposed arrangement and the precise nature of Bangladesh's participation have not yet been fully explained. How exactly will Bangladesh become a participant in this security arrangement? What would the institutional structure look like? How will burden-sharing work? What does Bangladesh contribute? These are important questions that require transparent answers before we make a final decision.

There are also important questions about equal economic opportunities and security guarantees. If the organisation is structured in a way that provides its members with greater economic and security opportunities, Bangladesh could potentially benefit.

If we finally decide to join, we also need to consider the consequences for our relations with other countries. Moving towards one alliance can inevitably create reactions elsewhere. Candid communication with relevant actors will remain essential to offset any negative effects.

So, yes, transparency, stakeholder engagement and proper vetting of the proposed entry into the pact remain essential at this stage and remain crucial before deciding how we move forward. 

Md Tanvir Habib is an Assistant Professor at the Department of International Relations at the University of Dhaka.