Jamaat’s desire for post-poll ‘alliance’ with BNP is fraught with risk

After few extraordinary weeks in December, the dust appears to have settled in Bangladesh, with everyone's focus returning to the all-important matter of the elections scheduled for 12 February. But even with clearer skies, the prospects of smooth sailing to the polls and beyond are anything but assured. 

While assumptions about election outcome are looking shaky under scrutiny, talk of a post-poll arrangement akin to a "national government" are raising the unhealthy prospect of government without accountability. 

The return of Tarique Rahman from 17 years' self-imposed exile gave the Bangladesh Nationalist Party a major morale boost, triggering a wave of adulation for the party's acting Chairperson. Five days later, the death of Rahman's mother, former prime minister and Chairperson of the BNP Khaleda Zia created a nationwide wave of grief that has generated a "sympathy factor" for the party. 

The BNP was always viewed as the likely winner in any election since the fall of former prime minister Sheikh Hasina's Awami League government in 2024. For a while, victory for the Jamaat-e-Islami was also considered within the realms of possibility, especially after its student front, the Islami Chhatra Shibir scored a string of victories in student council polls at several key universities.

But the impact of the developments in December has created an impression that the BNP is heading for a win, and the message has been received loud and clear by all players in the arena - from the interim government to various other political parties. 

Jamaat's electoral 'surprise'

Recent opinion polls have shown that the majority of the public expect the BNP to win, and the deference shown to Rahman in recent days by the government, political parties and the media can only strengthen that conviction.

In the transactional political culture of the country, this would be a self-fulfilling prophecy: the more a party is seen as the likely winner, the more likely they would be to win. 

A large segment of the Bangladeshi voters are known to vote for the party or candidate who they perceive to be the likely winner (a vote for losing candidates is often seen as a "wasted" vote, rather than an exercise of choice.) It is not personal, nor ideological. It is transactional. 

All these would suggest that the BNP's position has become almost unassailable. Almost, because underneath the blanket coverage of Rahman's high-profile activities in the media, the relentless rise of Jamaat is also not going unnoticed. 

For instance, a Dhaka University professor has suggested that, based on his recent field visits, Jamaat's support in the country maybe running as high as 30 per cent - double the previously-thought level of 15. 

"Jamaat's electoral gains appear to be substantially higher," Professor Asif Shahan has written in a post on Facebook. "If Jamaat-e-Islami's competitors remain in denial and fail to respond effectively, the country may well be headed towards an electoral surprise."

Shahan's findings come hard on the heels of yet another victory for Chhatra Shibir at Jagannath University students council election held on January 6. This showed the "Tarique factor" as well as the "Sympathy factor" had failed to stem the erosion of BNP's support among urban students. 

A March to the Right

But even if the Jamaat proves to be a stronger contender than previously thought, these elections are in danger of becoming a one-horse race in more ways than one. 

Even though there are various "horses" in the race, but, in the absence of the Awami League, there is no credible or meaningful ideological counterweight to the BNP and Jamaat at present. In terms of political ideology or broad outlook, these elections will offer the electorate the narrowest choice they've ever had in a free and fair poll. 

The BNP has traditionally been a centre-right party, which was aligned with the far-right Jamaat for years. Now Jamaat is contesting separately and has emerged as the only viable alternative to the BNP. Jamaat has also built alliance with other right-wing or centre-right parties. 

The "left," on the other hand, has practically left the building. 

Some leaders of tiny leftists parties have sought and received nomination from BNP. A further grouping of leftists led by the Communist Party, have paid their respect to Rahman but not sought nomination. They are expected to have little influence on the polls.  

Other leftist parties, formerly allied with the Awami League, some of whose leaders have been in jail without trial for over a year, have announced their intention to not participate in the polls at all.

The centre-left Awami League, for its sins, was banned from conducting political activities by an executive order issued by Muhammad Yunus on May 11 last year. The Election Commission duly followed up two days later by suspending its registration, thus kicking the party out of the election race. 

So the choice facing the electorate will range from the centre-right to the far right of the political spectrum. These elections appear designed to erase the Awami League from the country's political space - thus disenfranchising an unknown but potentially large segment of the population. 

Which way is Awami League?

This throws in another "unknown" into the electoral ring. Would the hardcore AL supporters simply stay away from the polling stations, in an effort to discredit the elections? Or would they vote tactically to defeat the party they fear most? Opinion is divided on this. 

Most people agree that ideologically, AL is much closer to the BNP than Jamaat, and therefore it would be in Hasina's interest to see Rahman come to power. But many believe AL holds the BNP mostly responsible for the ill fate that has befallen thousands of the their leaders and supporters since Sheikh Hasina's fall in 2024. 

This has led to a growing belief among observers that AL supporters may well vote for Jamaat and tip the balance against the BNP in many constituencies. They argue that, not only did the BNP play a crucial role in the street protests that upended 15 years of Hasina's rule, but they have been instrumental in filing thousands of cases against AL supporters since then. 

But there is another mind-boggling issue looming on the horizon. 

The BNP has traditionally been a centre-right party, which was aligned with the far-right Jamaat for years. Now Jamaat is contesting separately and has emerged as the only viable alternative to the BNP. Jamaat has also built alliance with other right-wing or centre-right parties. The "left," on the other hand, has practically left the building.

Political manoeuvring, especially by the Jamaat-e-Islami has raised concerns about what a post-poll situation could look like. After their meeting with Tarique Rahman on New Year's Day, Jamaat leader Shafiqur Rahman reminded journalists that Jamaat and BNP had "worked together" in the past and can work together in the future. 

"We have even said that, for the sake of the nation's stability, for the next five years, can we all work together and think of doing something good," Shafiqur Rahman said. 

"We have also said, immediately after the elections and before the formation of government we will sit again. We will speak frankly, we will think about the nation and take decisions for the nation," the Jamaat leader said. 

A Warning for BNP

Couched in language about the "nation's interest" and the "greater good," there is undoubtedly a pitch for power. What remains to be seen is whether Jamaat sees BNP simply as a conduit to power, or whether it is a different gambit altogether. 

There is no doubt that, during the past year and half, Jamaat has enjoyed more power than at any time since they collaborated with the Pakistan military in 1971. Undoubtedly, they would want to see this power legitimised through the elections. 

The big question is, what Jamaat's own expectations are: If Jamaat believes they have lost the momentum, then the offer of "working together" could be designed to remain in power while failing at the polls. 

Or, if they believe they have the upper hand, then Shafiqur Rahman's "offer" to Tarique Rahman would be a way to ensure BNP stayed off the streets and Jamaat's rule fully legitimised through a "national government" model.  

The problem with Jamaat's barely-disguised power pitch is that, a BNP-Jamaat coalition will leave the parliament without effective opposition. It will be a carbon copy of Sheikh Hasina's government in 2014, when the Jatiya Party was the official Opposition, but the Awami League "worked together" with JP by having their leaders in the cabinet. 

If Tarique Rahman agrees to Shafiqur Rahman's suggestion, then for the next five years, Bangladesh will be in danger of going back to the days of parliament without opposition, government without accountability. 

For Bangladesh, which has only recently emerged from a decade of rule without accountability, the dangers of a parliament without opposition could not be more stark. Lack of opposition and accountability invariably lead to the kind of authoritarianism that Bangladesh descended into after the sham elections of 2014. 

Sabir Mustafa is a former Head of BBC Bangla and a former Managing Editor of VOA Bangla. The writer can be contacted at: sabir.mustafa@gmail.com. Follow on X: @Sabir59.