Elon Musk and DOGE: Will Trump's radical reformer jump ship?

According to US media reports, Elon Musk — multi-billionaire tech businessman, controversial public figure and government advisor — is on the verge of leaving the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) created by Donald Trump. Trump is said to have already hinted at his withdrawal in a cabinet meeting, saying Musk would only play a "supporting role."

The White House disputed the reports, saying nothing has been officially decided. Musk dismissed the speculation as "fake news."

One thing that is certain is that Musk's role had a limited timeframe from the start. As a so-called "special government employee," he is allowed to work for the government for a maximum of 130 days a year without being subject to stricter ethical rules or transparency obligations (for example, providing detailed disclosure of assets and income), provided that a previously obtained exemption permit allows this.

There is no public reference to such an approval to date. Meanwhile, Musk is likely to reach the employment time limit for special advisors by the beginning of June 2025 at the latest.

It is therefore probably a matter of time before he officially leaves DOGE, not least as surveys suggest Musk is becoming an increasingly controversial figure in the US. It was recently suggested that a majority of people reject his radical reform course.

Musk has close ties to Trump — but are tensions rising?

Behind the scenes of the mutual back-slapping, there is talk of discontent. Critical voices in the Republican Party have recently become louder. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and former advisor Steve Bannon accuse Musk of self-promotion and having an egocentric style. 

But some analysts are doubtful about any deep rifts between Trump and Musk. 

"Musk has occasionally faced headwinds from Trump; he has been warned to act more cautiously," Sascha Lohmann from the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP) in Berlin told DW. "But both have always agreed on the fundamental direction of the push to dismantle the administrative state by radical means far beyond the constitutional limits."

What was the aim of the radical reform project DOGE?

The creation of DOGE was Trump's response to his election promise to "drain the swamp in Washington." In Musk, he gained an ally whose entrepreneurial approach promised radical reforms.

And the tech entrepreneur wasted no time in implementing his drastic measures: More than 20,000 jobs in federal agencies were axed, while a further 75,000 employees were offered voluntary redundancy packages. Structural mergers, for example, between the US Postal Service and the Department of Commerce, are in the pipeline.

The most spectacular example of radical reform to date is the end of USAID, the government agency for international development aid.

At the same time, important administrative processes have been digitised, including the pension files in Pennsylvania and the payrolls of more than 270,000 federal civil servants in a highly symbolic but also controversial project.

The Department of Government Efficiency claims to have made savings of more than 100 billion dollars. However, independent audits are still pending and media reports have already uncovered discrepancies in the official figures.

Although the procedure was efficient and quick, it was also risky, as "traditional control bodies were systematically bypassed," according to US analyst Lohmann.

Musk's political involvement haunts Tesla shares 

In addition to his role as a government advisor, Musk has also been active as an important political donor since the 2024 presidential election. Just recently, he supported the Republican candidate for the Supreme Court in Wisconsin with 20 million dollars — ultimately unsuccessfully, as the Democrats were able to mobilise voters by referencing Musk.

And his political involvement has also had a high cost for Musk himself. Tesla reported a 13% drop in sales for the first quarter. The fact that Tesla shares recovered significantly immediately after the reports of Musk's imminent departure shows just how much of a burden his role in government has become for his work as CEO.

DOGE without Musk — and Musk without DOGE?

Donald Trump has repeatedly emphasised that DOGE will continue to exist without Musk. He somewhat downplayed Musk's importance and pointed out that the government agencies and departments themselves are ultimately responsible for making savings.

It remains to be seen what Musk plans to do after his possible exit from politics. He will probably begin by concentrating more on his companies again. However, some see a continuation of his political career as a possibility as well. Sascha Lohmann from the SWP said that Musk may remain politically active, as he knows how to move "skilfully between libertarian and national conservative expectations."

With his role as a disruptive reformer, Elon Musk has left his mark on US politics in just a few weeks. He has shaken up central state institutions and polarised the political debate. Musk and his donations have long been valuable sources of support for Trump. But signs are mounting that their alliance could become a political liability for the president in the long run.

Andreas Noll/ DW editor. Illustration: TBS

Andreas Noll is a journalist. 

Disclaimer: This article, originally written in German by DW editor Andreas Noll; first appeared on Deutsche Welle and is published by special syndication arrangement.