Can India fend off US, UK pressure over Canada row?

The US and the UK this week sought to pressure India to cooperate with Canada over the investigation into the killing of a Sikh separatist and Canadian national in British Columbia.

Canadian authorities have accused agents linked to the Indian government of carrying out the assassination of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a longtime campaigner for the creation of a separate homeland for Sikhs, known as Khalistan, carved out of India.

On Wednesday, Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau told a parliamentary inquiry he wasn't looking "to provoke or create a fight with India," but that "India had violated Canada's sovereignty."

"The Indian government made a horrific mistake in thinking that they could interfere as aggressively as they did in the safety and sovereignty of Canada. We need to respond in order to ensure Canadians' safety," he said.

New Delhi has called the Canadian allegations "absurd" and "preposterous."

US: India should take the row 'seriously'

The row strained India-Canada ties so much that both sides earlier this week expelled each other's top diplomats.

The US on Tuesday said India should take Canada's allegations "seriously" and "cooperate with Canada in its investigation."

A day later, the UK released a statement, saying it was in "contact with our Canadian partners about the serious developments outlined in the independent investigations in Canada."

"The UK has full confidence in Canada's judicial system. Respect for sovereignty and the rule of law is essential," an FCDO spokesperson said.

A temporary phase?

But an Indian Foreign Ministry official, who asked not to be named, told DW that the case will not have any major impact on India's ties with the US or the UK.

"We have strong and deepening ties with the US and the UK and Canada's allegations are not going to derail our cooperation with our Western allies," the official said.

"Tensions will defuse and there won't be any geopolitical implications."

Shanthie Mariet D'Souza, president of Mantraya Institute for Strategic Studies, shared a similar view.

She said New Delhi's ties with Washington and London are "multifaceted" and that "one incident is unlikely to affect relations."

Nevertheless, the expert underlined, the controversy damages India's global reputation.

"India's firm response to Canada's accusations leaves New Delhi with only one choice — to maintain its present position, and there can be no backtracking," she said.

"India may be hoping that the current difficult phase is temporary. It believes that its strong stance and good bilateral relations with each of the Five Eyes members (except for Canada) will help it tide the crisis," D'Souza said, referring to the intelligence-sharing alliance comprising of the United States, Britain, Australia, Canada and New Zealand.

US, UK seeking closer ties with India

The US has been strengthening its ties with India in recent years, seeing New Delhi as a counterweight to China's growing political, economic and military clout in the Indo-Pacific region.

Just this week, India signed a $4 billion (€3.68 billion) deal with the US to purchase 31 armed MQ-9B SkyGuardian and SeaGuardian High Altitude Long Endurance (HALE) drones, a sign of the growing military partnership between the two sides.

The UK has also been seeking closer relations with India and negotiating a free trade agreement, which is reportedly nearing completion, with both sides just a step away from finalizing the deal.

C Raja Mohan, a visiting professor at Singapore's Institute of South Asian Studies, said India's "relations with the Five Eyes have never been so good as they are now," lauding the present moment as "a historical high point."

He told DW that there is "no question of India being isolated by the US and the UK given the deep linkages."

The expert also criticized Canada's approach to dealing with India's concerns regarding Sikh separatist outfits.

"In the name of protecting free speech, Canada cannot have a lax attitude to criminal networks and anti-India outfits that are working in cahoots. That must be addressed first by the authorities there instead of making accusations without presenting evidence," he said.

US dealt with 'greater diplomatic finesse'

India's reaction to Canada's accusations was markedly different from its response to the US, which also made allegations over a similar, albeit unsuccessful assassination plot by India on US soil in November 2023.

New Delhi is cooperating with US authorities in that case.

The alleged target of that operation was another Khalistan campaigner, dual US-Canadian citizen Gurpatwant Singh Pannun.

The US State Department on Wednesday said India had told it that an intelligence operative accused of directing the plot was no longer in government service.

Ajay Bisaria, a former high commissioner to Canada, said the US "has handled this episode with greater diplomatic finesse and ensuring it does not enter the political realm, unlike Canada."

On the US and the UK putting pressure on India, he underscored that they have "an obligation to defend Canada given the structural construct of the Five Eyes alliance."

But Bisaria stressed the developments of recent days will not have major implications for India: "There is not going to be any realignment of geopolitical equations with India, which is a trusted ally for these nations."

Murali Krishnan. Sketch: TBS

Murali Krishnan is a journalist based in New Delhi, focusing on Indian politics, society and business.

Disclaimer: This article first appeared on DW, and is published by special syndication arrangement.