Are Yemen's Houthis, US heading for war?

Yemen's de facto government, the US-designated terrorist Houthi militia, ramped up ballistic attacks on Israel's international airport and US ships in the Red Sea earlier this week after the US targeted Houthi strongholds in Yemen.

The death toll from the US attacks in Yemen's capital, Sanaa, and the northwestern city of Saada has meanwhile risen to over 50, including civilians, according to Houthi sources.

"What we are seeing in the last few days is a much more sustained American campaign of airstrikes which will cause more damage to the Houthis," Thomas Juneau, a Middle East analyst at the University of Ottawa in Canada, told DW.

"That being said, the Houthis have clearly shown over the years that they are very effective at absorbing military strikes, first from Saudi Arabia [during Yemen's civil war which started in 2014 and largely stopped with a fragile ceasefire in 2022 — Editor's note] and then in the last 14 months from the US and the UK," he said.

"In turn, we are going to need a bit more time to be able to properly assess the current impact," Juneau added.

Shortly after the beginning of the war in Gaza, which started after Hamas-led terror attacks in Israel on October 7, 2023, the Houthis began firing missiles on Israel and international shipping lanes in the Red Sea, in what they said was a bid to support Hamas and the Palestinians.

While the Houthis gained much appreciation and respect within Yemen and across the Arab world for their support of the Palestinians, an international coalition led by the US and the UK began in January 2024 to strike back against Houthi attacks, which had essentially brought sea trade on the Red Sea key route to a standstill.

During the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas earlier this year, the Iran-backed Houthi militia paused their attacks. But the resumption of Israeli strikes on Gaza earlier this week, followed by Houthi strikes on Israel and US strikes on Yemen, seems to have pushed the situation back to square one.

Earlier this week, US President Donald Trump posted on his Truth Social platform that "they [the Houthis] will be completely annihilated."

Are Houthi ties with Iran getting stronger?

"For the Trump administration, striking the Houthis is an easy win, a low-hanging fruit in terms of flexing American military power, but whether airstrikes will suffice to break the back of the Houthis is a different, more complicated question," Burcu Ozcelik, a senior research fellow at the London-based Royal United Services Institute, told DW.

Meanwhile, Trump has also warned Iran to no longer arm the Houthis, saying he would hold Iran responsible for any attacks carried out by the rebel group. Posting to Truth Social on Wednesday, he called on Iran to "stop the sending of these Supplies IMMEDIATELY."

In response, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said in a statement on Friday that "Tehran has no proxies in the region and that the groups it backs act independently."

Trump orders strikes on Houthi rebels in Yemen

"The Iranian regime has sought to claim distance from the Houthis," said Ozcelik. "And while it is true that Iran does not call all of the shots, or holds complete, unadulterated control over the Houthi decision-makers, the group would not have accumulated its arsenal of weapons without Iranian patronage."

Juneau agreed. "At this point, Iran says that the Houthis act independently and to a large extent, I actually think that that is true," he said. "However, Iran and the Houthis share common interests, they work together, they share information, they coordinate their policies, but the Houthis do not take orders from Iran."

A recent report by Ozcelik and her colleague Baraa Shiban for the political website Foreign Policy highlighted that the Houthis' role in the region is shifting.

"The balance of power along the Iranian axis has been shifting to the Houthis in Yemen, which have emerged as the most well-equipped and financed non-state armed group aligned with Iran in the new security landscape following the decline of Hezbollah's defensive and offensive capabilities," the authors wrote.

Already dire, 'humanitarian situation is worsening'

However, criticism of the Houthis' domestic rule is on the rise in light of their crackdown on dissent and a deteriorating humanitarian situation.

"Most Yemenis now clearly realize that the Houthis have dragged the country into endless conflicts," said Muammar, a 30-year-old father who asked DW to not publish his full name for fear of reprisal.

Maha, a mother of two who lives in the port city of Hodeida, told DW that "the situation in the country is deteriorating day by day. I hear many people wishing for the Houthis' removal, even if it comes through war."

"Personally, I wish for their removal by any means except war," added the 40-year-old, who also asked to use a pseudonym.

Amer, a former government employee, said that, above all, the "humanitarian situation is worsening."

The past decade of war has made Yemen home to one of the world's worst humanitarian crises, according to the United Nations.

Much of the international aid for civilians came to a halt earlier this year, after Trump reinstated the Houthis as foreign terrorist organization over their attacks on Red Sea shipping lanes and Israel.

This label, and the ensuing sanctions, have already drastically limited humanitarian aid in the country.

Cuts to the US foreign aid program, USAID, have further disrupted international aid to Yemen, as did the halt of UN programs in February after the Houthis abducted several employees of the UN and other international organizations.

The Houthi rebels, meanwhile, have resorted to looting food supplies that were designated for the population.

On Thursday, the Houthi-run news agency SABA reported that the rebels had taken out some 20% of the goods of a World Food Program warehouse without permission.

For the civilian population, this means even less food while they brace for further US strikes in the coming days.

"The US strikes this time around have clearly had a higher tolerance for civilian casualties than they did over the last year," said Niku Jafarnia, Yemen researcher at Human Rights Watch. "They've been striking residential areas at night while people are at home, and in at least one case, killed an entire family of civilians."
 

Jennifer Holleis. Sketch: TBS

Jennifer Holleis is the editor and political analyst specialising in the Middle East and North Africa.

Disclaimer: This article first appeared on DW, and is published by special syndication arrangement.