Soaring high: The next big leaps in drone tech by 2040

Illustration: TBS

Imagine this scenario: On a rather peaceful morning in 2040, Arham, a 55-year-old retiree living in the rural backwater, receives his medication via a drone sent by a private hospital located in a nearby city. 

While he receives the medicine delivery, another bunch of drones is seen inspecting the power lines, electric cables and other insulations to make sure that everything is in place and functional.

Around the same time, a compact drone is delivering essentials, including monthly groceries, to the family living next to Arham's house.

Some 15 years down the line (in 2040), this is how drones will likely revolutionise our lifestyle and leave direct impacts on every aspect of our lives. What is now perceived as an element of science fiction could genuinely turn into a reality in the near future, given the meteoric rise of drone technology.

The global drone market is projected to expand in the coming years. The market is forecast to reach $42 billion in 2025, which is predicted to roughly double by 2030, reaching nearly $90 billion. 

Growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 13-14% between 2025 and 2030, this market will grow at a faster rate after 2030 since developed countries, as tech experts point out, will get more dependent on drones for different purposes.

The Civil Aviation Administration of China estimates that the drone sector's annual revenue will reach 1.5 trillion yuan, or $208 billion, this year. By 2035, it could reach 3.5 trillion yuan, or $350 billion.

In the years ahead, the military drone segment will be a major contributor to this growth. Drones are already increasingly being used in warfare.

There is no denying that drones will have a ubiquitous presence in future warfare and aerial fights between rivals, owing to the fact that this small flying device is gradually turning into a force multiplier that could help countries achieve strategic objectives while blurring the lines between military-grade and commercial technologies.

General Anil Chauhan, India's Chief of Defence Staff (CDS), said while addressing a defence workshop, "Today's warfare must be fought with tomorrow's technology. We cannot win today's warfare with yesterday's weapon systems. Recent conflicts have shown how drones can disproportionately shift the tactical balance. Their use is not just a possibility; it is a reality we are already facing."

Very aptly put, fast forward to 2040, drones will change the face of warfare by enhancing autonomy, incorporating AI, and broadening their roles in retaliation. 

Drones equipped with cutting-edge technologies will also be an essential part of the military fleet, working alongside manned aircraft while blurring the differences between manned and unmanned systems.

Moreover, laser technology will add another layer of sophistication to drone technology, something comparable to hellfire missiles' lethality. According to experts, laser energy will provide a powerful heat signature and can burn through targets rapidly, providing drones with the power to leave lasting and devastating impacts on enemy targets.

Furthermore, the use of swarming tactics and cyber warfare, combined with the increased use of autonomous weapons systems, will significantly alter the combat landscape.

Apart from that, different countries around the world, as suggested by MIT Technology Review, will have police drone fleets to monitor any suspicious activity and thwart any potential threat. 

According to tracking conducted by the Atlas of Surveillance, more than 1,500 US police departments now have drone programmes, which will be formalised in the coming years, turning drones into a part and parcel of the overall patrolling system.

Many other countries will follow in the footsteps of the US, focusing more on building law enforcement agencies powered by drone systems.

Most importantly, drones will bring about phenomenal changes in the economy. In fact, there is a strong possibility that future economics will centre around drones and relevant technologies. 

China is already mapping out plans to realise this vision within the next decade. The country is expanding its low-altitude economy to revolutionise urban transportation and logistics. The Chinese government and the private sector are working to make the airspace a part of regular transportation and services in civic life by increasing the use of self-driving flying cars and delivery drones. Delivery of goods through drones is also expanding rapidly.

The use of drone delivery is now in the experimental stage in many countries of the world. For example, in the United States, Walmart has used drones 150,000 times to deliver products since 2021. But in China, this technology is no longer a dream of the future, but is becoming a reality.

Although the economy, driven by drones, is still relatively small in scale, it is expanding rapidly. Meituan, an "on-demand" platform renowned for its leading role in food delivery, delivered more than 200,000 products using drones in 2024 alone. 

The Civil Aviation Administration of China estimates that the sector's annual revenue will reach 1.5 trillion yuan, or $208 billion, by 2025. By 2035, it could reach 3.5 trillion yuan, or $350 billion.

In addition to these, drones will also contribute to other sectors. Especially in the agriculture sector, drones will expedite advancements as these machines will be heavily used for distributing fertiliser and pesticide, surveying crops and scoping out nutrient deficiencies.

Meanwhile, drones will be playing decisive roles in dealing with dangerous situations like wildfires. Mrinal Kumar, an associate professor in the Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering of Ohio State University, is working on autonomous drone technology that will help to circumvent abrupt disasters like wildfires.

In the near future, drones will also temporarily act as airborne cellphone towers in times of natural calamities, making sure affected people remain within the network coverage.

Advanced drones will also be used for other purposes such as storm analysis, planet surveying, aerial photography, wildlife conservation, and topographic scanning.