What is the Pentagon Pizza Index and why does it resurface during conflicts?
Also known as the Pentagon Pizza Report, the informal index is based on the idea that surges in late-night pizza orders signal that government and military officials are working extended hours to manage unfolding international crises
The so-called "Pentagon Pizza Index" is a long-running theory that tracks activity at pizza restaurants near the Pentagon in an attempt to anticipate major geopolitical events.
Also known as the Pentagon Pizza Report, the informal index is based on the idea that surges in late-night pizza orders signal that government and military officials are working extended hours to manage unfolding international crises.
Here is what to know about the theory and why it periodically regains attention.
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What is the Pentagon Pizza Index?
The index relies on publicly observable spikes in foot traffic or delivery activity at pizza restaurants around the Pentagon in Arlington, Virginia. Supporters of the theory argue that sudden increases in orders, especially late at night, can indicate heightened activity inside the US Department of Defense headquarters.
In recent years, online observers have pointed to real-time data tools, including Google Maps traffic indicators, to monitor activity at nearby pizza outlets.
The underlying logic is straightforward: during emergencies or rapidly developing foreign policy events, officials may work longer hours and order food, leading to noticeable increases at nearby restaurants.
What historical examples are cited?
Proponents of the theory often point to 1 Aug 1990, when a Washington-area Domino's franchise owner reported that the CIA ordered a record amount of pizza shortly before Iraq invaded Kuwait, marking the start of the Gulf War.
The episode has become one of the most frequently cited examples used to support the notion that unusual food orders can precede major international developments.
Over the decades, similar claims have circulated during periods of heightened global tension.
Why did it resurface recently?
The theory drew renewed attention in 6 Jun 2026, when Google Maps data showed a surge in activity at four pizza restaurants near the Pentagon during Israel's attack on Iran.
Online users highlighted the spike as tensions escalated between the United States and Iran. The index has resurfaced again in recent weeks amid continued strains between Washington and Tehran.
Observers say social media and publicly available location data have made it easier to track and share such patterns in real time.
How do officials respond?
US defense officials have generally downplayed the reliability of the index.
A Pentagon spokesperson noted that the building contains numerous in-house dining facilities, including its own pizza, sushi and sandwich options, meaning that outside orders do not provide a complete picture of activity inside the complex.
The Department of Defense said it had "nothing to offer" regarding the theory and stated that the tracking data often does "not align with the events".
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has also addressed the idea publicly, joking that he might order large amounts of pizza on random Friday nights specifically to "throw everybody off" and keep observers off balance.
How seriously is it taken?
Analysts and officials have not recognized the index as a formal intelligence tool. While it continues to attract attention online during periods of geopolitical tension, defense authorities have emphasized that restaurant activity does not necessarily reflect internal operations or decision-making timelines.
The theory remains an example of how open-source data and social media speculation can intersect with high-profile global events, even as officials caution against drawing firm conclusions from such patterns.
