Iran sees Saudi-Pakistan-Turkiye defence pact as sign of shifting regional order

Iran has responded cautiously to a new trilateral defence pact between Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkiye, with officials and analysts viewing the agreement as part of a broader shift in the Middle East's security architecture rather than an immediate threat to Tehran.

The pact, signed in Mecca, establishes a mutual defence arrangement under which an attack on one member is considered an attack on all. Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkiye have said the agreement is not directed against any specific country, particularly Iran.

The agreement has nevertheless prompted debate in Tehran over whether it signals the emergence of a new regional security framework as the influence of the US in the Middle East changes.

Hossein Noushabadi, director general for parliamentary and legal affairs, said the pact "is being viewed as the beginning of the collapse of US security hegemony in West Asia and the Persian Gulf."

He added that a new regional order would eventually "replace the power structures imposed by extra-regional actors, heralding the end of the prevailing security and geopolitical paradigm."

The comments reflect a view among some Iranian officials that regional countries are increasingly seeking to develop their own security arrangements rather than relying on structures led by outside powers.

Iran stresses Muslim unity

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi did not directly refer to the pact in his response, instead stressing cooperation among Muslim countries.

"When Muslims stand together, 'we can face every challenge by malicious outsiders head-on.' Time to rely only on ourselves and embrace true brotherhood," Araghchi said.

Iran maintains relations with all three members of the new grouping, although its ties with Saudi Arabia have been marked by years of rivalry. Tehran has comparatively close political and economic ties with Pakistan and maintains significant relations with Turkiye.

Some analysts therefore see the pact as unlikely to pose an immediate military threat to Iran.

Vali Nasr, professor of international affairs at Johns Hopkins University, described the agreement as part of a broader transformation in the region.

"For now, these are all elements of a post-American security order in the Middle East. This is also as much a balance to the Abraham Accords as a direct challenge to Tehran," Nasr said.

Mehran Kamrava, professor of government at Georgetown University of Qatar, played down the pact's immediate significance.

"Ultimately, this pact is not that new, nor is it something that, at present at least, has a great deal of substance beyond its symbolic significance," Kamrava said.

Concerns over possible pressure on Iran

While Tehran's official response has been relatively restrained, some Iranian lawmakers have warned that the agreement could develop into a mechanism for coordinated pressure on Iran and its regional partners.

Ebrahim Azizi, a member of the Iranian parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, said regional states appeared to be recognising the importance of developing their own security arrangements.

"It's clear that Arab states finally understand security cannot be imported; it must be built within the region. However, a roadmap is still missing," Azizi said.

He later issued a warning on social media: "Warning: Miscalculation is a historical mistake. Iran has proven that every error comes at a cost. Balance is the only way forward."

Ebrahim Rezaei, another member of the parliamentary commission, also questioned whether the agreement would significantly improve Saudi security.

A "paper agreement with Turkiye and Pakistan" will not provide Saudi Arabia security, "just as years of one-sided dependence on the Americans did not bring them security," Rezaei said.

Analysts have also raised the possibility that closer cooperation among the three countries could eventually create additional pressure on Tehran.

"From Tehran's perspective, the concern is therefore not only that the pact could strengthen Saudi deterrence, but that it could eventually facilitate coordinated pressure on Iran in Yemen, Iraq, and even economically through Turkiye and Pakistan," said Hamidreza Azizi, a researcher at the Clingendael Institute.

Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North African Programme at Chatham House, said the three countries had broader reasons for deepening their cooperation.

The three nations are "driven together to forge greater diplomatic and defence cooperation in reaction to US unreliability, Israeli revisionism and Iranian retaliation," Vakil said.

A new regional security balance

The agreement comes as regional powers seek to strengthen their own security relationships amid uncertainty over the future role of the US and continuing tensions involving Israel and Iran.

For Tehran, the immediate challenge is to ensure that the new arrangement does not evolve into an explicitly anti-Iranian coalition.

Iran's existing relationships with Pakistan and Turkiye could provide channels for maintaining dialogue with the members of the pact, while its efforts to improve ties with Saudi Arabia could also limit the scope for the agreement to become a direct vehicle for confrontation.

The longer-term significance of the pact may depend on whether regional states can establish a durable security framework independent of outside powers.

For now, the agreement appears to be as much a political signal as a military alliance, with its practical implications likely to depend on how the three members translate their commitment to mutual defence into policy.