How Nicolás Maduro has maintained power in Venezuela
Now the longest-serving president in power in Latin America, with 12 years and seven months in office, he has stayed in control as the country has lost millions of residents, seen a 72% economic contraction, and faced widespread criticism over its democratic decline
Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has outlasted years of predictions that his government would collapse.
Now the longest-serving president in power in Latin America, with 12 years and seven months in office, he has stayed in control as the country has lost millions of residents, seen a 72% economic contraction, and faced widespread criticism over its democratic decline, says CNN.
How did Maduro rise to power?
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Maduro became president in 2013 after being publicly endorsed by Hugo Chávez shortly before Chávez left for medical treatment in Cuba.
Despite having served as foreign minister and vice president, Maduro initially had minority support inside the ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) and tensions with influential figures, including Diosdado Cabello.
Maduro began his career as a bus driver and union leader for the Caracas Metro. He has said that union activism opened doors to politics and allowed him to meet Chávez and his partner, Cilia Flores, who is widely viewed by analysts as an influential figure within the presidency.
His public image has often been shaped by eccentric behavior, verbal slips, and controversial decisions, known in Venezuela as maduradas.
What explains Maduro's political survival?
Analysts describe Maduro's method of holding power as a repeated cycle: contested elections, opposition protests, accusations of repression, and internal loyalty maintained through the distribution of state resources.
- Foreign alliances and political narrative
Maduro has strengthened an anti-imperialist and anti-US narrative developed by Chávez and Fidel Castro. His government receives political support and expertise from countries such as China, Russia, and Iran.
- Cuban support
Cuba is one of Maduro's closest allies. Cuban security services have been described as central to the government's ability to anticipate threats, including their alleged role in responding to the April 2019 opposition uprising.
- Distribution of power across institutions
Maduro acts as the guarantor in what one academic compares to a "confederation", distributing power, money, and responsibilities among key actors.
The Armed Forces have received access to economic sectors and government posts, which analysts say helps maintain their loyalty.
Paramilitary groups known as colectivos serve as an armed network that reinforces the government's control and has been active during periods of unrest.
Senior chavista leaders such as Diosdado Cabello, Rafael Ramírez, and Tareck el-Aissami remain influential in this internal power-sharing model.
What has been the cost of this survival?
Venezuela's economic collapse predates US sanctions, beginning with a decline in the oil industry and years of mismanagement. Today, the economy is roughly 28% of its size in 2013. Nearly eight million Venezuelans have left the country, forming one of the world's largest displacement crises.
Maduro says US sanctions are responsible for both the economic crisis and mass migration.
Human rights record
UN reports document widespread and systematic human rights violations since 2014. These include excessive force, arbitrary detentions, sexual violence, torture, extrajudicial executions, and politically motivated persecution.
The UN says these violations were "coordinated in accordance with state policies and part of a course of conduct that is both widespread and systematic, thus constituting crimes against humanity".
How did Chávez choose Maduro as successor?
Chávez selected Maduro in December 2012 while preparing to travel to Cuba for medical treatment. He ended internal competition within chavismo by publicly naming Maduro as his candidate.
Chávez declared: "If some unforeseen circumstance should arise that prevents me from continuing as president of Venezuela, my firm opinion, as firm as the full moon, is that, in that scenario, which would require calling presidential elections, you should choose Nicolás Maduro".
Experts cite several reasons for Chávez's choice:
- Maduro's reputation for loyalty and discipline.
- His strong relationship with Cuba, especially during Chávez's illness.
- His long-standing personal connection to Chávez, beginning during Maduro's years as a union activist.
What groups form the core of Maduro's power structure?
Maduro's coalition is made up of several domestic and international actors:
Domestic
- Armed Forces: granted economic and institutional privileges.
- Colectivos: armed groups active in local control and political mobilization.
- Senior chavista figures: including Cabello, Ramírez, and El-Aissami, who receive power and resources under Maduro's distribution model.
Foreign
- Cuba: especially its security apparatus, which has played a significant advisory and operational role.
- China, Russia, Iran: geopolitical allies that reinforce Maduro's anti-US positioning.
What is Maduro's stance toward the United States?
Maduro has resisted a range of US strategies, including sanctions, legal actions, negotiation initiatives, and diplomatic pressure. Analysts say he is "an expert in stalling and delaying negotiations".
Despite heightened US military pressure and what has been described as the largest naval and air deployment in the region in decades, Maduro has remained in power.
