Blasts, blame, and brinkmanship: Decoding India and Pakistan's latest standoff

A pair of deadly explosions in New Delhi and Islamabad has sharply heightened tensions between India and Pakistan, reigniting a familiar pattern of mutual blame between the nuclear-armed neighbours and raising fresh concerns about regional stability.

What happened in Delhi and Islamabad

In New Delhi, a powerful explosion hit a slow-moving vehicle stopped at a red light near the Red Fort Metro Station on Monday evening, killing at least 13 people and injuring more than 20, says Al Jazeera.

"A slow-moving vehicle stopped at a red light. An explosion happened in that vehicle, and due to the explosion, nearby vehicles were also damaged," said Delhi Police Commissioner Satish Golcha.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi condemned the attack, calling it a "horrific incident" and promising that "the conspirators behind this will not be spared."

Less than a day later, a suicide blast struck the entrance of Islamabad's District Judicial Complex, killing at least 12 people and wounding more than 30. Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi said the attacker "tried to enter the court premises but, failing to do so, targeted a police vehicle."

How did each country respond

Pakistan swiftly blamed India. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif described the Islamabad bombing and an earlier attack in Wana as "the worst examples of Indian state terrorism in the region." He added: "Terrorist attacks on unarmed citizens of Pakistan by India's terrorist proxies are condemnable."

Defence Minister Khawaja Asif claimed the Islamabad attack was planned from Afghanistan "at India's behest" and said he "won't be surprised if in the next few hours or tomorrow India blames us for this." Following the blast, he wrote on social media that Pakistan was "in a state of war."

India dismissed the allegations. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal said New Delhi "unequivocally rejects the baseless and unfounded allegations being made by an obviously delirious Pakistani leadership."

"It is a predictable tactic by Pakistan to concoct false narratives against India in order to deflect the attention of its own public from the ongoing military-inspired constitutional subversion and power grab unfolding within the country," Jaiswal said, referring to Pakistan's controversial 27th Amendment.

"The international community is well aware of the reality and will not be misled by Pakistan's desperate diversionary ploys," he added.

Why is India being cautious

Despite strong language, India has avoided naming any group or country behind the Delhi attack. Analysts say New Delhi's restraint reflects lessons from its brief but intense conflict with Pakistan six months earlier.

"After the India-Pakistan conflict ended in 15 May, Prime Minister Modi essentially announced a new doctrine in which he said that any terrorist attack on Indian soil will be viewed as an act of war, and that the terrorists would not be distinguished from their sponsors," said Michael Kugelman, a South Asia analyst.

Kugelman added that India's earlier aggressive response "made it difficult for India to sustain support from the international community throughout the conflict, particularly as it continued to wage its strikes in Pakistan."

What motivates Pakistan's accusations

Analysts say Pakistan's reaction follows an established pattern. "It was not a surprise that Pakistan has blamed India for these attacks," said Kugelman. "We've seen a pattern in recent years of Pakistan categorically accusing India of sponsoring anti-Pakistan groups, as well as most terrorist attacks inside Pakistan."

The Islamabad blast has also raised questions about Pakistan's internal security. "These types of blasts are very unusual, so it's traumatic, it's embarrassing, and it's also an intelligence failure," Kugelman said.

How does Pakistan's internal politics factor in

India's Foreign Ministry linked Pakistan's accusations to its domestic political climate, particularly the 27th Constitutional Amendment, which critics say consolidates military power and undermines the judiciary.

Indian officials argue Pakistan's leadership is using external blame to "deflect the attention of its own public" from the "military-inspired constitutional subversion and power grab unfolding within the country."

What are the regional implications

The twin blasts have deepened a fragile security environment spanning India, Pakistan and Afghanistan. Pakistan's leadership has blamed militants "sponsored by the Taliban" for attacks on its soil, even as relations between Islamabad and Kabul deteriorate.

Meanwhile, ties between India and the Taliban have recently shown signs of improvement, marked by a visit from Afghanistan's foreign minister to New Delhi earlier this month.

"You're looking at a situation that really underscores just how strained the region is now, not just in terms of India-Pakistan relations," Kugelman said. "The immediate factor is what response might there be from each country."