Hundred-year storm tides will occur every few decades in Bangladesh: MIT study

A study by scientists at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) warns that as global temperatures rise, Bangladesh could face a staggering increase in the frequency of catastrophic storm tides, potentially up to ten times more often than today.

Published in One Earth, the study reveals that in a future where fossil fuel emissions continue unabated, extreme storm tides which were previously considered once-in-a-century events, could strike Bangladesh every ten years or even more frequently by the end of this century, says MIT news.

Tropical cyclones, commonly known as hurricanes when they form over tropical oceans, pose a significant threat to coastal regions. When these cyclones make landfall, they can generate massive storm tides, causing severe flooding. 

According to the MIT study, the warming climate is likely to expand the seasonal window of cyclones, allowing them to overlap with the monsoon season for the first time. This overlap increases the risk of back-to-back flooding, compounding the danger for millions of residents.

"Bangladesh is very active in preparing for climate hazards and risks," says study co-author Sai Ravela, a principal research scientist in MIT's Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences. "But everything they're doing is more or less based on what they're seeing in the present climate. This cannot be ignored."

Using advanced simulation techniques, the MIT team modeled tens of thousands of hypothetical tropical cyclones under various climate change scenarios. They used a downscaling technique to simulate detailed storm activity and a hydrodynamical model to calculate the storm tides by incorporating wind patterns, tides, and sea-level rise.

The results were alarming: as global temperatures increase, the intensity and frequency of high storm tides will grow significantly. Events that previously occurred once every 100 years could strike every decade, while milder yet still dangerous storm tides might become near-annual events.

The research highlights a pressing need for countries like Bangladesh to reassess their climate preparedness strategies. While the nation has made substantial investments in storm shelters, embankments, and early warning systems, these measures may not be sufficient under future climate conditions.

"This climate change story playing out in Bangladesh will play out differently elsewhere," Ravela adds. "Whether it's heat stress, drought, or wildfires, the underlying catastrophe is the same—climate change is escalating natural hazards globally."