How climate change drives up your grocery bill

Infographics: TBS

Extreme weather patterns linked to climate change are significantly disrupting agriculture and driving up food prices worldwide, including in Bangladesh.

2024 was the hottest year on record, with global temperatures exceeding 1.5 ◦C above preindustrial climate conditions for the first time and records broken across large parts of Earth's surface.

Bangladesh faces a litany of climate-induced disasters, including floods, excessive and insufficient rainfall, cyclones, heatwaves, cold waves, and rising sea levels, which are associated with increased salinity. These recurring calamities annually devastate farmers, leading to substantial production losses and destabilising markets, ultimately forcing consumers to pay inflated prices for essential food items.

The agriculture ministry estimates that two rounds of floods in August and September 2024 resulted in an 11 lakh-tonne shortfall in rice production, causing a 10% year-on-year increase in rice prices in September.

Climate change driving up food prices worldwide

A study led by Maximillian Kotz of the Barcelona Supercomputer Center states that extreme weather is driving up the prices of basic food products worldwide and posing wider risks to society.

The research, published on Monday, looked at 16 examples across 18 countries around the world where prices spiked in the short term as a result of either extreme heat, drought or heavy precipitation between 2022 and 2024.

The study mentions that onion prices in India jumped by 89% in the second quarter of 2024 after the May heatwave, while following the August 2022 floods, rural food prices in Pakistan increased by 50%. In China, vegetable prices rose by 30% from June to August 2024 following the August heatwave, according to the findings.

El Niño impact in Bangladesh

The influence of El Niño, a climate pattern that describes the unusual warming of surface waters in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, in late 2023 and early 2024 brought abnormal weather, including winter rainfall and prolonged cold waves, severely impacting potato and onion production. By March 2024, potato prices had soared by 116% compared to the previous year, with onion prices up by 73%.

Mohammad Kamruzzaman Milon, a senior scientist and agri-climate expert at the Bangladesh Rice Research Institute (BRRI), told TBS that El Niño contributed to a 1.57°C temperature increase in 2024. Bangladesh witnessed successive severe cold waves and rainfall in late 2023 and early 2024, followed by a 26-day heatwave in April-May and two major floods, he said. "These are all impacts of rising temperatures and climate change."

Kamruzzaman warned that the agriculture sector would be most vulnerable to climate change in the future, emphasising the current lack of significant investment and skilled researchers in this area. "Without adequate investment and recruitment of skilled researchers, Bangladesh will face severe threats in the coming days," he cautioned.

Continuous rainfall across Bangladesh for the past three weeks, since early July, has significantly impacted market prices. Over the last fortnight, vegetable prices surged by Tk20-30 per kg, while green chillies have seen a drastic three to four-fold increase to around Tk300 per kilogramme, up from Tk80-100 in June.

According to the Department of Agricultural Extension (DAE), the persistent rain from 4 to 14 July caused widespread damage to vegetables, chillies, and seedbeds. At least 18,340 hectares of crops in 20 districts were destroyed, incurring an estimated financial loss of Tk430 crore. This includes 3,520 hectares of damaged vegetable crops. Experts attribute these sharp price increases directly to the extensive production loss of vegetables and green chillies during this period of prolonged rainfall.

Professor Abu Noman Faruq Ahmmed of Sher-e-Bangla Agricultural University explained that continuous rain and waterlogging severely damage vegetable and chilli plants, especially susceptible chilli plants that develop foot rot. He noted that green chilli prices soar almost every year during heavy rainfall, recalling that prices reached Tk800 per kg in 2023 under similar conditions.

Adaptation to climate change

Professor Ahmmed stressed the critical need for adaptation to climate change, stating, "We cannot fight nature; we must adapt. There is no alternative." He highlighted ongoing scientific efforts to develop climate-resilient crop varieties and recommended the use of polysheds for vegetables and chillies to mitigate damage.

M Zakir Hossain Khan, CEO of Change Initiative and global observer for the World Bank Climate Investment Fund, told TBS that rising ocean temperatures are rapidly altering global weather, making Bangladesh a major victim due to its geographical location. "Our seasons are now out of sync due to climate change. Flood levels are increasing, yet rivers lack water when it's needed. This directly impacts agriculture," he explained.

Khan stressed the need to focus on mitigating agricultural losses. He advocated for real-time agricultural forecasts that provide actionable information to farmers. "If a forecast says water levels in a district will rise by two feet, this means nothing for farmers. They need to be told what steps to take at that moment."