Grameenphone forecasts Q1 revenue dip amid Middle East tensions

Grameenphone Limited has forecast a slight decline in its financial performance for the first quarter of 2026, citing global geopolitical tensions and ongoing domestic economic challenges.

In a price-sensitive disclosure submitted to the Dhaka Stock Exchange today (24 March), the country's largest telecom operator said its revenue for the January-March period is expected to fall by around 2% year-on-year. 

Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA) are also projected to decline by approximately 3% year-on-year.

The company noted that further details regarding its performance will be disclosed in its official Q1 2026 financial report.

Following the announcement, Grameenphone's share price fell 1.34% to close at Tk251.10, reflecting investor concerns over its near-term outlook.

Grameenphone attributed the expected slowdown primarily to ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which have disrupted global energy markets. 

Bangladesh, being heavily reliant on imported fuels and liquefied natural gas (LNG), is particularly vulnerable to such shocks. The situation has led to increased volatility in energy supply, higher fuel import costs, and early signs of strain in logistics and energy availability across the country.

The telecom operator said that although the overall business environment remains relatively stable, the combined impact of global uncertainties and a weak macroeconomic backdrop is beginning to affect economic activity and consumer behaviour. 

Early indicators point to reduced mobility, slower business operations, and pressure on disposable incomes – factors that could weigh on telecom usage and spending.

Seasonal challenges have also added to the pressure, with severe storms in recent months disrupting operations in several areas and compounding broader economic headwinds.

Despite the challenges, the company said it remains committed to maintaining service continuity and operational resilience, adding that it is closely monitoring the situation and taking necessary measures to safeguard network performance and support customers during this period of uncertainty

The cautious outlook for early 2026 comes after a mixed financial performance in 2025. 

Grameenphone reported an 18.53% year-on-year decline in profit after tax to Tk2,958 crore, down from Tk3,631 crore in 2024. The fall was attributed to subdued consumer spending, rising operational costs and cautious business activity.

Earnings per share also decreased to Tk21.90 from Tk26.89 in the previous year.

Revenue for 2025 stood at Tk15,806 crore, slightly lower than Tk15,845 crore recorded in 2024. 

Mobile communication services remained the primary revenue driver, contributing Tk15,520 crore, while customer equipment and other segments added Tk54 crore. 

Grameenphone's subscriber base continued to expand, reaching 8.39 crore by the end of 2025. Of these, 4.87 crore, or 58.1%, were internet users, underlining the growing importance of data services in the company's business model.

Despite the earnings pressure, the company demonstrated strong cash generation by declaring a 105% final cash dividend for 2025, bringing the total annual payout to 215%, including the interim dividend.