Exports slowdown to weigh on Bangladesh's growth: ADB
ADB cut Bangladesh’s FY26 growth forecast to 5% in Sep, but Dec report didn’t mention any figure
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has said that although South Asia is poised for strong economic performance, Bangladesh's growth will lag due to persistent weakness in its export sector.
In its Asian Development Outlook (ADO) for December 2025, released today, the bank revised down Bangladesh's GDP growth forecast for FY26, while keeping the FY25 projection unchanged.
Earlier in the September outlook, the ADB also trimmed its growth outlook for Bangladesh, forecasting the economy to expand by 5% in the current fiscal year, FY26, slightly down from its April projection of 5.1%.
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However, the December outlook report did not mention the revised growth figure for Bangladesh.
The report mentioned, "The lower forecast reflects weaker-than-expected export performance and greater investment uncertainty arising out of the effect on policy of upcoming national elections in February."
"It also reflects weaknesses in the financial sector," it warned.
"Exports have been weighed down not only by subdued global demand but also by supply disruptions resulting from a major strike in October at Chattogram Port, which handles more than 90% of Bangladesh's imports–exports," the report added.
Meanwhile, growth in South Asia is expected to remain robust, with the 2025 forecast revised upward to 6.5% from 5.9%, and the 2026 forecast maintained at 6.0%.
This is driven by upgrades to India's outlook based on robust growth in domestic consumption. The region's largest economy's growth forecast for FY25 (fiscal year ending March 2026) was revised to 7.2% from 6.5% in the September ADO.
The inflation forecast for Bangladesh remains unchanged in the latest outlook. In its September outlook, the lender said inflation is expected to ease, averaging around 8% in the current fiscal year — down from 10% in the previous year.
The latest report mentioned, "In Bangladesh, the outlook is retained as assumptions hold for tighter monetary and fiscal policies, efforts to mitigate exchange rate volatility, and declining global commodity prices."
