More than 180 hospitals will face shutdown risk in Bangladesh from extreme weather without phasing out fossil fuels: new XDI report

Ahead of the Health Day of COP28, a new report released today by XDI (Cross Dependency Analysis) - a global leader in physical climate risk analysis, showcasing that 1 in 12 hospitals around the world could face partial or total shutdown from climate change extreme weather events if countries fail to curb fossil fuel emissions. 

The report analysed 1,244 hospitals in Bangladesh, and found that around 183 hospitals (14.7%) are at high risk to face total or partial shutdown by 2100. 

As a result, communities hit by cyclone, severe storms, flooding, and other disasters could be cut off from emergency hospital care right when they need it most, with low- and middle-income countries like Bangladesh are at most risk, they say.

"Climate change is increasingly impacting the health of people around the world. What happens when severe weather results in hospital shutdowns as well?

Our analysis shows that without a rapid phase out of fossil fuels, the risks to global health will be exacerbated further, as thousands of hospitals become unable to deliver services during crises," said Dr Karl Mallon, Director of Science and Technology, XDI (Cross Dependency Initiative).

The report highlighted that without a swift phase-out of fossil fuels, an alarming projection indicates that by the end of the century, nearly 1 in 12 hospitals globally—amounting to 16,245 hospitals—face a high risk of complete or partial shutdown due to extreme weather events. 

This number significantly surpasses the current count of vulnerable hospitals and parallels the classification of uninsurable residential or commercial structures.

All 16,245 identified high-risk hospitals will necessitate extensive adaptation measures where feasible. 

Despite substantial investment in these adaptations, relocation will emerge as the sole viable option for a considerable number of hospitals facing the highest risks. 

Among the 16,245 high-risk hospitals projected for 2100, a staggering 71% (11,512) of these facilities are situated in low and middle-income countries, underscoring a disproportionate impact on regions with fewer resources.

The report mentioned that limiting global warming to 1.8 degrees Celsius through an expedited phase-out of fossil fuels would effectively halve the risk of infrastructure damage to hospitals compared to scenarios with high emissions. 

Conversely, under high-emission circumstances, the risk of hospital damage from extreme weather would surge more than four-fold (311%) by the century's end. This escalation would reduce to 106% in a low-emission scenario.

The report estimated that under a high emission scenario (RCP 8.5), Bangladesh has a 79% damage risk increase by 2020-2050 and 316% risk by 202-2100. 

On the other hand, under the low emission scenario (RCP 2.6), Bangladesh will face a 40% damage risk increase by 2020-2050 and 95% by 2020-2050.

Presently, South East Asia bears the highest percentage of hospitals at high risk from extreme weather events globally, with nearly 1 in 5 hospitals (18.4%) projected to face potential total or partial shutdown by the century's close in high-emission scenarios. 

South Asia accounts for the highest number of hospitals at risk, aligning with its dense population. 

If emissions remain high, projections suggest that by 2050, one-third of the most vulnerable hospitals worldwide (3,357) will be situated in South Asia. 

By 2100, this count could skyrocket to 5,894.

The report highlighted that hospitals situated in coastal regions and close to rivers encounter the most imminent threats. 

Presently, riverine and surface water flooding primarily pose risks. 

However, by the century's end, coastal inundation—exacerbated by rising sea levels—will rapidly escalate, becoming the most prominent hazard after riverine flooding by 2100.

"The most obvious thing to dramatically reduce this risk to hospitals, and keep communities safe, is to reduce emissions," said Dr Karl Mallon.