How Bangladesh's delta threatens its trade future

Bangladesh hosts one of the world's largest deltas, formed by the confluence of three major rivers — the Ganges, Brahmaputra, and Meghna.

While the country is widely recognised for its rapid growth in export sectors such as garments, textiles, and agriculture, it faces a persistent geographical challenge. The delta's fertile plains and rich aquatic ecosystems also make Bangladesh highly vulnerable to natural disasters, particularly floods and rising sea levels. Nearly 60% of the country's land surface lies five metres or less above sea level (Bangladesh: Selected Issues, 2019). These environmental vulnerabilities constrain international trade by disrupting export and import supply chains, posing a significant barrier to long-term economic growth. This analysis examines the issue in the context of the August 2024 floods.

The devastating floods of 2024 clearly demonstrate how Bangladesh's deltaic geography hampers international trade, particularly in agricultural exports and imports. The floods destroyed an estimated 1.1 million tonnes of rice and over 200,000 tonnes of other crops across 23 districts, with net agricultural losses amounting to around Tk45 billion (Paul, 2024). Rice — Bangladesh's staple crop and a key export — was severely affected as the timing of the two floods coincided with the Aus and Aman crop seasons. Approximately 0.7 million acres of these paddy lands were fully or partially damaged out of the 16.8 million acres cultivated in FY2024 (see Figure 1). As a result, rice exports dropped by 15% compared to 2023 (Raiyan, 2024).

Fisheries, another major export sector, suffered similar setbacks. Reports indicated that 85–95% of fish raised by farmers were washed away, sharply reducing potential export earnings (Floods in 11 Districts Cause Tk14,421cr Losses: CPD Study, 2024). Professor Amir Hossain (Rtd.), a resident of Bagerhat, observed that shrimp exports from Khulna declined in 2024. The increased water level of the Bay of Bengal and cyclone-induced flooding in southern Bangladesh contributed to higher soil and water salinity — one of the key factors behind this downturn (Khulna Witnesses Decline in Shrimp Export, 2024).