Geopolitics over groundwork? Doubts shadow Biman's multi-billion dollar fleet expansion

Highlights 

• 35 new aircraft are planned by 2035, potentially taking Biman's fleet to 54.
• Biman has a 28% pilot shortage, with 61 pilots currently lacking.
• Several existing aircraft remain underutilised, raising questions over further expansion.
• Biman owes over Tk7,075 crore to state entities, including CAAB and Padma Oil.
• Experts say expansion needs structural reforms, including staffing, maintenance and route planning.

Biman Bangladesh Airlines is pursuing the largest fleet expansion in its history, acquiring aircraft at a pace that far outstrips its operational planning.

The rapid accumulation of orders has raised sharp questions among industry experts over whether commercial strategy or external geopolitical pressure is driving the national flag carrier's procurement.

In 2026, the airline committed to 25 Boeing aircraft, 14 ordered in April and 11 in September. The expansion plan broadened further following an announcement by Civil Aviation and Tourism Minister M Rashiduzzaman Millat that Biman will sign an agreement in October to purchase 10 Airbus aircraft — four A350-900s and six A321neos.

If all deals proceed, Biman will add 35 aircraft to its existing fleet of 19, bringing its total fleet size to 54 between 2031 and 2035. This vastly exceeds the government's publicly stated target of 47 aircraft by 2035, introduced in parliament earlier this year by former minister Afroza Khanam.

Infographics: TBS

Yet, despite these massive commitments, Biman has failed to present a detailed business plan, market study, or network strategy showing where and how these aircraft will be deployed.

Commercial logic vs geopolitics

The sudden swing in procurement choices highlights political undercurrents. Bangladesh initially planned to acquire 10 Airbus jets. However, following the 2024 political shift, Biman pivoted toward Boeing, a move industry insiders link to broader trade negotiations with the United States to reduce bilateral trade imbalances and mitigate tariff risks.

While State Minister for Foreign Affairs Humaiun Kobir denied external pressure, Minister Millat acknowledged in May that Boeing talks arose against the backdrop of proposed 35% US trade tariffs.

Simultaneously, European diplomats have pressed Dhaka to honour earlier commitments. French Ambassador Jean-Marc Séré-Charlet recently called the pending Airbus deal a "good test" of Bangladesh's commitment to its economic partnership with Europe.

While state officials insist procurement is strictly driven by fleet modernisation, a senior civil aviation executive, speaking on condition of anonymity, questioned the economic justification of taking on dual-manufacturer complexities without dedicated route-revenue blueprints.

Grounded Realities: Liabilities and Crew Shortages

The push for new aircraft comes while Biman struggles to manage its current fleet and balance sheet.

Pilot shortage

Biman currently faces a 28% deficit in cockpit crew, lacking 61 pilots. This shortage directly handicaps flight frequencies and network extension.

Underutilised fleet

Internal data from September 2025 reveals that Biman's Boeing 777-300ERs averaged 14.86 flight hours daily, while Boeing 787-8s averaged just 11.18 hours, and Dash-8 Q400s logged only 8.52 hours, well below peak industry benchmarks.

Mounting liabilities

Despite reporting an operational profit of Tk785 crore on Tk11,631 crore in revenue for FY25, Biman owes more than Tk7,075 crore to state entities, including Tk5,842 crore to the Civil Aviation Authority of Bangladesh (CAAB) and Tk1,232 crore to Padma Oil.

Leadership instability

Biman has churned through five managing directors since the 2024 government transition, routinely placing generalist bureaucrats at the helm rather than seasoned aviation executives. 

Experts have questioned the frequent appointment of bureaucrats without substantial aviation-sector experience, saying sustained leadership and professional management will be essential for executing a fleet plan spanning several years.

Financing terms for the new orders remain undisclosed. With earlier Boeing deliveries backed by sovereign guarantees, additional unbacked debt could expose government coffers to significant risk if passenger yields underperform. 
Where to?

The most basic question remains unanswered in the material available: where will all these aircraft be deployed?

Biman currently operates around 19 aircraft. Alongside the 25 Boeing aircraft already ordered, it is considering leasing up to 10 aircraft by 2027 to expand international services before the new Boeing aircraft arrive from 2031.

That means capacity could expand significantly even before the new Boeing aircraft enter the fleet.

But adding aircraft requires much more than acquiring them.

Biman would need additional pilots, cabin crew, engineers, maintenance personnel, ground staff, vehicles, hangars, parking positions, airport facilities, route rights and sales capacity.

Aircraft utilisation will depend on pilot availability and maintenance capacity as much as fleet size. If Biman cannot adequately utilise the aircraft, the purchases could create fixed costs without corresponding revenue.

Dhaka already faces constraints on aircraft parking and ground operations, meaning fleet expansion also requires simultaneous plans for parking, maintenance and ground handling.

Existing aircraft are not fully utilised

The utilisation data raises another question over the pace of expansion.

While long-haul aircraft such as Boeing 777 and 787 Dreamliners can technically operate for up to 18–22 hours a day under efficient scheduling, internal data from September 2025 shows Biman's Boeing 777-300ER aircraft averaged 14.86 flight hours daily.

Its Boeing 787-9 and 787-8 aircraft averaged 13.48 hours and 11.18 hours, respectively. Dash-8 Q400 turboprops averaged just 8.52 hours.

This underlines the importance of answering how much additional capacity the airline can actually utilise.

Growth potential demands structural reform

The market opportunity itself is not in doubt. Foreign carriers currently control 65% of Bangladesh's international passenger traffic. With the opening of Hazrat Shahjalal International Airport's Third Terminal, IATA projects Dhaka's annual passenger traffic could double to 25 million over the next decade. 

Experts broadly agree that Bangladesh has room to expand its aviation sector. But the fleet expansion will require corresponding plans for staffing, training, maintenance, financing, route development and aircraft utilisation.

However, analysts warn that aircraft alone will not capture market share.

"Just increasing the number of aircraft will not ensure success without necessary institutional reforms," said former CAAB Chairman Air Vice-Marshal (retd) M Mafidur Rahman, emphasizing the need for coordinated crew recruitment, upgraded maintenance hangars, and professional management.

Former Airline Executive and aviation expert wing commander ATM Nazrul Islam said Bangladesh has considerable aviation market potential and that expansion could be justified if Biman can translate that demand into profitable operations.

He said the airline should begin planning now for pilots, engineers and other personnel required for each aircraft type, while route planning, market analysis and financial management must be aligned with the delivery schedule.

Economic analyst Mamun Rashid echoed similar concerns, noting that idle or underutilised aircraft accumulate heavy depreciation and financing overheads. "Biman must explain which routes these aircraft will serve, the expected demand, and how this expansion will yield sustainable revenue."

Introducing Airbus aircraft into a fleet currently dominated by Boeing would also require additional training, maintenance and spare-parts capacity.

With delivery schedules running from 2031 to 2035, Biman has a narrow window to build an operational and commercial framework capable of supporting a 54-aircraft fleet, or risk putting procurement far ahead of performance.