Airfares rose following Iran war – now Eid pushes them up further

Highlights:

• Airfares remain 30%-40% above normal after the Middle East conflict
• Eid-ul-Adha demand is driving ticket prices even higher
• Many travellers are delaying or cancelling trips due to high fares
• Middle East-bound tickets remain significantly costlier than before the conflict
• Regional destinations such as Nepal, Sri Lanka and the Maldives have seen sharp fare increases
• Domestic routes, including Saidpur, are also experiencing elevated fares and strong demand

Airfares from Bangladesh remain stubbornly high nearly two and a half months after the Iran-centred Middle East conflict disrupted global aviation, with the approaching Eid-ul-Adha holiday pushing ticket prices even higher on both international and domestic routes.

Industry insiders estimate fares on many routes are still 30% to 40% above normal seasonal levels despite the gradual resumption of flight operations in the Middle East.

Travel agents, airlines and outbound tour operators say reduced seat capacity, lingering fuel surcharges and heavy Eid demand are continuing to keep fares high.

The impact is particularly visible on labour-intensive Middle Eastern routes, regional tourist destinations and domestic sectors such as Saidpur, where airlines have added extra flights to cope with rising passenger demand.

Last-minute leisure travel bookings have also fallen sharply this Eid season due to high airfares.

"Traditionally, around 30% to 35% of tourists confirmed bookings at the final stage before departure. Among them, only 5% to 7% have confirmed their trip.

This year, many potential travellers are either cancelling plans or postponing trips until after Eid," Bangladesh Outbound Tour Operators Forum President Chowdhury Hasanuzzaman Rony told TBS.

"People are coming to inquire about packages, but many are stepping back after seeing the airfare," Rony said.

According to industry stakeholders, lingering post-war instability and passenger pressure ahead of Eid-ul-Adha have combined to create one of the most expensive travel periods in recent years.

Infographic: TBS

War impact still visible

During the height of the Middle East conflict earlier this year, airlines cancelled hundreds of flights globally, while Bangladesh experienced disruption on transit-dependent routes to Europe, North America and the Middle East.

Jet fuel prices also surged during the conflict, forcing airlines to impose additional fuel surcharges.

Although fuel prices have eased in recent weeks, airlines say operational costs remain above pre-war levels.

A Dhaka-Riyadh ticket for 24 June was priced at Tk63,800 on the Biman Bangladesh Airlines website yesterday, while the Dhaka-Jeddah fare stood at Tk73,669 – at least Tk10,000 higher than before the Iran conflict and nearly double pre-Covid levels.

US-Bangla Airlines spokesperson Kamrul Islam said the market had not yet fully stabilised after the Middle East crisis.

"The impact of the war situation has not completely disappeared. Fuel and operational costs are still higher than pre-war levels. Although fares are showing some downward adjustment on certain routes, the reduction has not become effective across the market simultaneously," he said.

According to him, Eid travel demand has created additional pressure on international destinations, particularly Middle Eastern routes and leisure destinations such as the Maldives.

"Most seats for the Eid period are booked well in advance. Last-minute demand naturally pushes fares higher," he added.

Regional destinations still drawing travellers

Popular holiday destinations such as Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia, Nepal, Sri Lanka and the Maldives were still witnessing moderate Eid demand despite high fares, tour operators forum President Hasanuzzaman told TBS.

However, visa-related complications have become another obstacle for travellers seeking alternative destinations.

"Dubai is still not fully normal, Indonesia visa processing now takes almost one-and-a-half months, while Vietnam is practically unavailable for many travellers. So even if people want to travel, they are facing difficulties," he said.

Round-trip fares to Sri Lanka, which usually range between Tk60,000 and Tk65,000, have climbed to Tk80,000 to Tk90,000 during Eid.

Nepal fares, which typically remain between Tk40,000 and Tk45,000, are now approaching Tk60,000.

Malaysia-bound tickets are also under pressure because of labour migration traffic combined with Eid demand, with return fares hovering around Tk70,000 to Tk75,000.

Meanwhile, round-trip Maldives fares now range between Tk60,000 and Tk65,000, up from around Tk40,000 to Tk45,000 previously.

"Almost every international route has seen fare increases of around 30% to 40% this Eid season. For families planning short vacations, this has become a major financial burden," Hasanuzzaman said.

According to him, many travellers are also avoiding Europe and other long-haul destinations because of lingering uncertainty following the Middle East conflict. "So far, we have not received any Europe booking for Eid travel in our company," he added.

Corporate travel replacing leisure demand

Another outbound tour operator, Taslim Amin Shovon, said international passenger traffic remained lower than expected despite the Eid season.

"Passenger numbers in the international travel market are still 50% to 60% lower than normal. If you visit the airport departure area, you can clearly see the difference," he said.

According to Shovon, Europe and North America-bound routes remain expensive because of continuing operational disruptions and reduced transit capacity.

"The airfare shock created during the war has not returned to normal. Europe and America-bound tickets are still very expensive," he added.

However, Shovon noted a growing shift in travel patterns, with corporate and business travel replacing a significant share of traditional leisure tourism.

"Travellers who have already visited destinations such as Malaysia, Singapore, Nepal or Bhutan are now seeking newer destinations. As a result, travel to China, South Korea and Japan is increasing," he said.

He added that travel to Europe has not stopped completely, but most current trips are linked to corporate events, conferences and business activities rather than tourism.

Domestic routes also under pressure

Domestic air travel has also come under Eid pressure, especially on northern routes such as Saidpur.

A search on NovoAir's website yesterday morning showed fares from Saidpur to Dhaka on 31 May ranging between Tk9,149 and Tk12,149.

Novoair's Director of Sales and Marketing Sohail Majid said public perception regarding high fares often focuses only on maximum published prices rather than actual average selling fares.

"Many passengers only see the published maximum fare. But most of our seats are sold under promotional fares. On the Saidpur route, tickets are still available from Tk3,650," he said.

According to him, Novoair immediately adjusted fares after the government reduced jet fuel prices. "We reduced one-way fares by Tk300 immediately after fuel prices were lowered. Other airlines had not adjusted their pricing at that time," he claimed.

In a statement issued on Saturday (23 May), the Bangladesh Energy Regulatory Commission announced that aviation fuel prices would be cut by Tk39.57 per litre with effect from midnight on 23 May.

Following the revision, the price of Jet A-1 fuel for domestic airlines was reduced to Tk165.88 per litre from Tk205.45, including duty and VAT. For international operations by both local and foreign carriers, the price has been reduced from $1.3385 per litre to $1.0823 per litre, excluding duty and VAT.

Airfares on domestic routes increased by a minimum of Tk1,000 to a maximum of Tk1,200 after jet fuel prices were adjusted mid-March.

"When jet fuel prices reached Tk227 per litre, fuel surcharges increased to around Tk1,200. Now fuel prices have come down to around Tk165, and the surcharge has been reduced to nearly Tk900. But costs have still not returned to pre-war levels," Sohail said.