$1tn economy, 1cr jobs: Govt charts new growth path
5-year Strategic Framework for Reform and Development set to be finalised today at the NEC, chaired by PM
Exiting the traditional five-year plan model, the BNP government has drafted a five-year Strategic Framework aimed at shifting Bangladesh's economy from fragility to prosperity.
The development blueprint offers a dual mandate of creating 1 crore jobs by 2030 and building a $1 trillion economy – roughly twice its current size – by 2034.
Officially titled "Five-year Strategic Framework for Reform and Development July 2026-June 2031", looks to propel the real GDP growth to 8.5% in the terminal fiscal year 2030-31 from estimated 4.2% in the current fiscal year.
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The strategy is set to be finalised today at the National Economic Council, the country's highest economic policymaking body chaired by the prime minister.
Marking a shift from state-led, top-down growth targets to a private sector-centred, phased and more realistic economic strategy, the plan seeks to lift investment to 40% of GDP by FY31, from 31% at present, while raising revenue to 11% from 9%.
Development expenditure will go up to 6.9% of GDP from 4% during the period, when debt-GDP ratio will remain stable at 38.9%, predicts the framework. The growth will be driven by accelerated private investment with foreign investment rising to 2.5% of GDP.
The framework also plans to drill 100 new gas wells by 2028 to add 1,500mmcfd, upgrade Eastern Refinery to process 1 lakh barrels per day and generate 3000MW from rooftop solar programmes, while enforcing a strict ban on new coal plants.
Wahiduddin Mahmud, chairman of the Advisory Council for the framework and former planning adviser, told TBS that the core objective of the guideline is to ensure that strategies do not remain confined to documents, but are implemented in practice.
Excessive emphasis is often placed on ambitious targets such as GDP growth, he told TBS, adding, "Although such outcomes are largely influenced by external factors."
He added, "Therefore, instead of overemphasising targets, greater importance should be given to the operationalisation of policies, which is more directly within national control."
The brief highlights of the development handbook, prepared by the planning commission's General Economics Division, was presented at the national steering meeting yesterday with Finance and Planning Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury in the chair.
3-tier action plan
It outlines a three-tier action plan for phased economic transformation: the first year focused on recovery and stabilisation, the next two on restoration, and the final two on reconstruction, driven by institutional and structural reforms, global competitiveness and rapid progress towards a trillion-dollar economy.
It also envisions a diversified export structure covering pharmaceuticals, light engineering and IT. MSMEs will be integrated into global value chains to add local value, alongside efforts to secure free trade deals with the EU and India to offset post-LDC preference losses.
The strategy proposes a unified Trade-Industry-Investment Policy to rationalise tariffs, remove anti-export bias, and align incentives with global standards. It also prioritises 10 sectors, including leather, shipbuilding and agro-processing, alongside economic zones linked to diversified global supply chains.
Sports and creativity
Revitalising the creative economy features prominently in the framework, which aims to upskill 2 lakh youths (Gen Z/Alpha) in digital and creative arts and establish a Bangladesh Creative Development Authority with creative hubs in 64 districts.
The government will promote a "Creative in Bangladesh" brand and target placement of 100 local films and shows on platforms such as Netflix, Amazon and Disney, while also leveraging the Bangladeshi diaspora in 50 countries for cultural diplomacy.
Sports development is also prioritised through CSR-backed support for professional sports and first-class leagues, the establishment of a National Olympic Academy, a "Notun Kuri Sports" talent hunt, 64 district sports villages, and over 1,000 playgrounds nationwide.
The framework also proposes modernising madrasah education by integrating ICT, science, languages and vocational training, alongside recognition of Qawmi certificates for government jobs to ensure broader employment access.
Demographic strategy
For better integration in rural transformation, cold chain will be supported to reduce post-harvest loss in agriculture and a school feeding scheme for 1.7 crore children is expected to create jobs for rural women in catering and procurement MSMEs.
The strategy takes into account the country's fast-closing demographic dividend, stressing the need to make best use of the huge working age (15-59 years) people accounting for 62% of the country's population before the 51-year demographic window closes in 2033.
The 2026–2030 period is described as the final opportunity to convert this demographic advantage into lasting human capital and economic gains before ageing accelerates.
The document projects the population will reach 18.76 crore by 2030, intensifying pressure on housing, jobs and public services, while warning that underutilisation of the dividend has already led to a 42% rise in unrealised labour income.
Total unrealised prime-age labour income is estimated to have increased from Tk2.41 lakh crore in 2016 to Tk3.42 lakh crore in 2022.
Closing employment gap
The strategic document models three scenarios to address the employment gap: raising private investment to 30% of GDP would generate 9.4% employment growth, 10% annual export growth 16.5%, and doubling social spending to 6% would yield 64.3% labour income.
It proposes strengthening teaching standards through a national teacher competency framework and shifting from rote learning to digital pedagogy.
It also plans to modernise technical and vocational education and introduce mandatory internships to better link education with labour market needs. Universal health coverage is also proposed to reduce out-of-pocket healthcare costs.
'Framework must treated as a living document'
Wahiduddin Mahmud explained that policy implementation should mean creating a direct linkage between strategic documents and the actual functioning of government.
"In other words, formulated strategies and policies must be clearly reflected in the day-to-day activities of ministries, policy decisions, and project implementation. Without integration into ministerial operations, such documents risk becoming ineffective," he said.
"To make this 'living document' effective," he said, "It needs continuous discourse involving civil society, journalists, researchers, and other stakeholders."
Otherwise, he warned, the document risks becoming disconnected from reality and reduced to a policy paper with little relevance to actual government action. He also said a mid-term review is insufficient unless embedded within a continuous, implementation-linked process.
On 14 May, Prime Minister's Finance and Planning Adviser Rashed Al Mahmud Titumir said previous development frameworks had largely become "dead documents". He said past governments pursued unrealistic projects driven by patronage, inflated costs and weak planning, which strained the economy.
Titumir outlined four reforms under the new framework: aligning project selection with public priorities and electoral mandates; strengthening monitoring and evaluation; ensuring open access to information for independent assessment; and making the planning process more citizen-centric and accountable.
