If Trump lifts sanctions on Russia, what would it mean?

The US and its allies imposed thousands of sanctions on Russia following its invasion of Ukraine, in an attempt to slow Moscow's war machine. As President Donald Trump seeks to negotiate an end to the conflict, his administration has both hinted at an easing of those restrictions and threatened new measures to speed things along.

It's hard to tell whether Trump would actually follow through on toughening up sanctions. In one day alone, he said he was "very angry" with Russian President Vladimir Putin and warned that buyers of Russian oil could be hit with so-called secondary tariffs if Russia obstructs a peace agreement — only to soften his tone hours later, saying he didn't think that Putin would "go back on his word."

If Trump opts for the sanctions-easing route, he could remove almost all of the US measures on his own authority. But he doesn't have an entirely free hand. Approval from Congress is supposed to be required to lift the most severe American restrictions. And to eliminate international sanctions, Trump would have to persuade counterparts in Europe and elsewhere to unwind their own packages.

Why would Trump lift sanctions on Russia?

The potential for sanctions to be eased is being used as a bargaining chip by the Trump administration in its negotiations with Russia to end the war in Ukraine. Beyond peace, US commercial self-interest is at play here too. Trump sees an economic opportunity in resetting the relationship between Russia and America — a rapprochement that not long ago would have been unthinkable.

The US president said on his Truth Social platform that he discussed "major Economic Development transactions" with Putin during a call in February, while the Kremlin said the two leaders talked in a subsequent call about cooperating "in the economy and energy sector in the future."

How important is sanctions relief to Russia?

Russia's negotiators have sought to leverage the US influence over international sanctions to extract concessions in the peace talks, insisting relief is a precondition to any agreement on a truce with Ukraine in the Black Sea. These demands include allowing the Russian Agricultural Bank to reconnect to SWIFT, the global payments communication network that major Russian financial institutions were kicked out of in an attempt to frustrate cross border transactions.

The Russian economy is grappling with high inflation and a tight labor market, though it has proven much more resilient to sanctions than many expected, having gradually skewed activity toward military production. Russia has adapted to the Western price cap on its oil and sanctions on vessels by finding willing buyers in China and India, and by using a "shadow fleet" of tankers to keep ferrying barrels around the world. What could prove more damaging than oil-related sanctions is if the price rout seen in early April is sustained on the fallout from Trump's tariff war and OPEC+ boosting output.

When it comes to financial sanctions, Russia had been moving away from the dollar and euro for years in response to the restrictions imposed after its 2014 annexation of Crimea. The shift to trading in other currencies was accelerated by the sweeping sanctions introduced following the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

The US and its allies also sought to pressure Moscow by freezing more than $300 billion of Russian central bank assets, mostly in Europe. Russia has a buffer in the event these assets are never recovered — the increased value of the country's gold reserves could offset roughly a third of the losses, according to Bloomberg calculations.

To what extent can Trump, as president, end the US sanctions on his own?

He has the power to lift more than 90% of the US sanctions by executive order, according to Peter Piatetsky, co-founder and chief executive officer of Castellum.AI, which compiles a database of global sanctions programs.

Trump could terminate the national emergencies declared in relation to Russia's creeping aggression since 2014, which are the legal basis for many of the sanctions that have been imposed via executive order. To unwind the sanctions implemented under other presidential authorities, Trump could issue executive orders that remove the measures one by one or in batches, lifting penalties on companies and individuals.

Alternatively, Trump could choose to keep the sanctions in place and issue waivers or licenses that would allow firms to do business with the targeted entities. He could also undermine the oversight of sanctions violations. In February, the Trump administration shut down KleptoCapture, an international task force set up by President Joe Biden to oversee the enforcement of sanctions on Russia.

Which sanctions does Trump need support from Congress to remove?

Before leaving office, Biden signed an executive order in January that would make it more difficult for Trump to unilaterally end some sanctions. The order redesignated some of the Russian entities targeted and made those sanctions subject to a law that requires Congress to be notified of any intent to roll the measures back. The targets include Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegas — two of Russia's largest oil companies — as well as several other prominent individuals, firms and exchanges.

If Trump were to chip away at this category of sanctions, the notification to Congress would trigger a 30-day review period and the House of Representatives and Senate could hold a vote to block the restrictions from being lifted. The measure would have to pass both chambers and would need two-thirds support to withstand being overturned by the president's veto power.

While Trump can draw a certain amount of confidence from the fact Republicans hold a majority in the two chambers and have largely been unwilling to break with his agenda, many GOP lawmakers have publicly backed Ukraine. Some have even joined a bipartisan effort to impose more sanctions on Russia if Putin refuses to engage in good-faith ceasefire negotiations or breaches an eventual agreement. Republicans could therefore face a difficult choice if asked to support sanctions relief for aggressor Russia in the absence of a credible solution for peace.

How much does sanctions relief depend on cooperation from other countries?

Russia was the world's 11th largest economy when it launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. In order for sanctions to be substantial enough to have an impact, several governments coordinated their responses. Grigory Marinichev, a securities lawyer at Morgan Lewis & Bockius LLP in New York, estimated that there was an 80% overlap between the US, UK and European Union's sanctions as of April 2025.

The Biden administration made a special effort to dovetail many of its sanctions with those of the Group of Seven and other nations. That concerted action included three key restrictions: excluding Russian banks from SWIFT, sanctioning Russia's central bank and freezing its sovereign assets, and imposing a $60-per-barrel price cap on Russian crude oil.

Trump could withdraw the US from these sanctions regimes, which would weaken them, but he can't undo them on his own. SWIFT, for example, is headquartered in Belgium and must comply with the EU's laws and sanctions. Lifting the restrictions imposed by the bloc would require unanimous approval from its 27 member states.

A coalition of European leaders ruled out the possibility of easing sanctions on Russia at a summit in late March, and indicated that they could in fact do the opposite to apply further pressure. Sanctions are potential leverage for Europe to get a toehold in the US-led peace negotiations. However, officials in the region are walking a fine line. If Trump sees them as a holdup in securing an end to the war, he could punish European economies with further tariffs.

Trump has shown a willingness to eschew longstanding alliances in pursuit of his "America First" agenda. If he were to pull the US out of the multilateral sanctions on Russia while Europe maintains its stance, businesses and investors would be forced to navigate a new patchwork of restrictions. A US pullback would also create a situation where Europe shoulders the costs of sanctions while the US reaps the possible profits of normalised relations with Russia.

What would sanctions relief mean for international investment in Russia?

The possibility of sanctions being eased and an end to the war in Ukraine has some Western businesses and investors eying opportunities in Russia — a market that's essentially been out of bounds for more than three years. Before the war, foreign investors held around $150 billion in Russian stocks and government bonds, and the assets were a major component of most emerging-market indexes. The majority of that money was then pulled out or became trapped in Russia in bank accounts for non-residents.

One of the first things investors would be looking for is whether a peace deal restores access to that frozen money. Most have written off those holdings, so a reopening could provide a windfall, particularly since domestic stock prices and the ruble have surged since the peace talks began.

Ruble makes Gains

Russia's currency has appreciated versus the dollar as investors bet that sanctions relief could be part of a deal with the US. 

But many investors may remain hesitant about a return to Russia given how quickly the market became a pariah before. There's reputational risk from moving too early to restore ties with a country responsible for Europe's biggest conflict since World War II, and financial and legal risk if sanctions aren't lifted or are later reinstated.

"I think investors would be very cautious as a lot of people lost a lot of money there," said Malcolm Dorson, head of emerging markets strategy at Global X Management, an ETF provider. "Russian companies will have to do a lot in terms of proving themselves and making themselves look attractive, maybe in the form of dividend yields and share buybacks."

How would investors navigate a difference between sanctions regimes?

To make a full-scale comeback to financial markets, Russian assets would need to be reincorporated into major stock and bond indexes. Many of the biggest indexes are run by US banks, such as JPMorgan Chase & Co., and index providers tend to consult investors before making significant changes — a process that normally takes a couple of years.

A reintroduction of Russian assets would be complicated if European governments don't lift their sanctions in tandem with the US. If that split were to emerge, "it's unlikely that Russia will reenter global benchmarks, even if they are maintained by US providers," said Kieran Curtis, a portfolio manager at aberdeen group plc. The large presence of American financial institutions in Europe "makes it difficult for them to start ignoring European sanctions policy," according to Curtis.

Some key steps would have to be taken before Russian assets reenter the mainstream. First, sanctions would need to be lifted on Russian banks to allow US investors to buy and sell rubles. Next, the two major clearing houses, Euroclear and Clearstream, would have to agree to start settling transactions involving Russian securities again. This may be difficult because both are based in the EU and have to comply with the bloc's sanctions. An alternative option for US investors might be to get transactions cleared by Russia's National Settlement Depository, which itself is subject to international sanctions.

Over-the-counter trades that aren't carried out on a stock exchange may also be possible once some of the sanctions are lifted, according to Marinichev, though these trading volumes would likely remain just a fraction of those seen on exchanges before Russia's invasion of Ukraine.