Possible cyclone 'Dana' brewing in Bay, might make landfall by 26 Oct
Forecasts from the European Union Weather Forecast Model indicated a 70%-80% chance of a cyclone forming
A cyclone is feared to be brewing in the Bay of Bengal next week, according to weather forecasts, meteorological agencies in India, the United States and the European Union.
The cyclone, once formed, might make landfall in coastal areas of India and Bangladesh between 24-26 October.
"Most weather forecast models, including those of the United States and the European Union, have indicated the possibility of a cyclone forming in the Bay of Bengal between 21 to 26 October," meteorologist Mustafa Kamal Palash told The Business Standard.
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Forecasts from the European Union Weather Forecast Model indicated a 70%-80% chance of a cyclone forming, according to forecasts issued on 16 October.
"When weather forecasting models of both the United States and the European Union simultaneously predict the formation of a cyclone at one place, one can be almost certain that the prediction will come true. This cyclone is likely to be named Dana," he said.
The possible cyclone's name has been given by Qatar. It is likely to hit the coastal areas of Barishal Division and the neighbouring Odisha state of India.
More details in this regard will be available by 20 October, said Palash.
Meanwhile, Indian media, citing the India Meteorological Department (IMD), reported that there is a moderate chance of cyclogenesis during the next 48-72 hours due to the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), currently in phase 4.
An active MJO phase could amplify convective activity, increasing the likelihood of the storm intensifying further.
Cyclones usually form in the Bay of Bengal before the onset of the monsoon season and after the season ends.
According to the IMD, the monsoon air has completely left Bangladesh on 14 October, officially marking the end of the season in Bangladesh.
Analysis of the weather forecast by international meteorological agencies indicate that a low-pressure is likely to form in the Bay within 21-22 October.
The low-pressure might turn into a depression by 23 October, which is likely to develop into a full-blown cyclone between 23-24 October.
During the landfall, the cyclone is expected to move with an estimated maximum wind speed of 100 to 120 kilometres per hour if it hits the coast of Barishal and Khulna divisions of the Bay of Bengal, while the speed might be 130 to 150 km per hour if it hits the coast of Odisha state of India.
