Low revenue growth, stagnant investment: Can BNP, Jamaat deliver on job creation and social security pledges?
Economists and business leaders say a clear roadmap remains missing so far.
As Bangladesh heads towards the 2026 national election, the country's two main political parties – the Bangladesh Nationalist Party and Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami – have unveiled a range of election pledges, placing the economy, jobs, industrialisation and investment at the centre of their political messaging.
Both parties have placed particular emphasis on job creation, a business-friendly environment, youth empowerment and industrial development.
Party sources from BNP and Jamaat have confirmed that these pledges will feature prominently in their manifestos. Jamaat-e-Islami has already outlined its plans at a policy summit in Dhaka, briefing foreign diplomats, economists and civil society representatives on its economic vision.
Economists and business leaders view the proposals positively in principle.
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However, they also raised questions about how realistic the plans are, how quickly they can be implemented, how they will be financed, and whether the institutional capacity exists to deliver them.
So far, they say, a clear roadmap remains missing.
These questions come at a time when Bangladesh's economy is under both structural and short-term pressure. In recent years, GDP growth has slowed to around 4-5%, well below pre-Covid levels.
At the same time, food and overall inflation has hovered around 9-10% for a prolonged period, squeezing people's purchasing power and raising the cost of living.
Private investment has remained largely stagnant at around 23-24% of GDP, a level economists say is not enough to support new industries and large-scale job creation.
While the official unemployment rate stands close to 4%, joblessness among young and educated people is widely believed to be much higher, pointing to growing stress in the labour market. Bangladesh's tax-to-GDP ratio remains below 7%.
Moreover, pressure from foreign debt repayments has increased, deepening fiscal constraints on development spending. While major infrastructure projects show visible progress, shortages of gas and electricity for industry, along with weak logistics, continue to act as major barriers to investment and production.
Against this backdrop, there is growing debate over how realistic BNP and Jamaat's ambitious economic pledges are, with financing the initiatives likely to emerge as the main challenge – raising the question of where the money will come from.
Economists note that the debate is no longer about whether the promises sound attractive, but whether the economic conditions, institutions and public finances can support them.
Towfiqul Islam Khan, additional director (research) at the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), said the visions presented by the two political parties currently appear unrealistic.
"They need to clearly explain how the financing will be arranged, how long implementation will take, through what process it will be done, and how institutional capacity will be strengthened," he said.
"However, if revenue collection improves, these long-term plans can be implemented – and they should be," he added.
Job creation: ambition vs capacity
BNP has pledged to create one crore jobs within 18 months of coming to power and to introduce unemployment allowances for educated jobseekers. Jamaat-e-Islami, meanwhile, has promised skills training for one crore young people over five years and job access for 50 lakh people.
Economists point out that around 18 to 20 lakh young people enter Bangladesh's labour market every year. Creating one crore jobs would require sustained GDP growth of over 8-10%, along with a large increase in domestic and foreign investment.
A professor from the University of Dhaka's economics department said employment pledges are politically appealing but hard to deliver without clear plans to boost investment, industrialisation and exports.
"Private investment has remained stuck at around 22-23% of GDP for years and has weakened further in recent times. Some infrastructure has been built, but that alone is not enough to suddenly trigger a surge in investment," the professor said, adding that job promises therefore appear highly ambitious.
Economists also note that Bangladesh lacks country-specific studies on how much investment is needed per job created. While such studies exist elsewhere, they may not apply to Bangladesh's context.
Mashrur Riaz, former senior economist and programme manager at the World Bank Group, said it is now impossible to calculate a clear investment-to-job ratio because of technological upgrading.
"However, looking at annual employment creation and the GDP-to-investment ratio can give some indication," he said.
He noted that last year private investment stood at about 22% of GDP, roughly $110 billion or Tk1.5 lakh crore. In contrast, annual new job creation in the private sector was around 12 to 13 lakh.
"However, investment made in a single year does not generate employment in that same year; rather, its impact is felt gradually over time," he added.
Moreover, economists further noted that whoever forms the next government will face strong pressure to implement a new pay scale for public sector employees, as no new pay scale has been introduced since 2015.
Tax, interest rates, investment
Jamaat-e-Islami has proposed cutting corporate tax permanently to 19% and value-added tax to 10%. At present, some companies face tax rates exceeding 50%, while taxes on discouraged and luxury goods can reach 700-800%.
On the other hand, BNP has not specified tax rates but has promised business-friendly reforms and deregulation.
Business leaders say lower taxes could encourage investment, but warn that without alternative revenue sources, budget deficits could widen, eventually fuelling inflation and debt.
Kamran T Rahman, president of the Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce and Industry (MCCI), said businesses support tax cuts but need clarity on other issues.
"We support lower taxes. But we also want to know how bank interest rates will be reduced, how the dollar crisis will be managed, and how policy stability will be ensured," he said, adding that investment will not pick up without inflation control, lower interest rates, improved law and order, and reliable power and gas supply.
CPD's Towfiqul Islam Khan said boosting investment would eventually require a major overhaul of the revenue system.
"A service-oriented tax system, automated return filing and assessment, and efficient tax refunds are essential," he said. "This would reduce tax evasion and administrative delays, and increase revenue."
Social protection: promises and fiscal limits
Both BNP and Jamaat have placed strong emphasis on social protection ahead of the election. BNP has proposed unemployment allowances for educated jobseekers, cash support through family cards for every household, employment-linked assistance and expanded safety net programmes.
Jamaat has pledged interest-free loans, direct cash transfers for vulnerable groups and a welfare-oriented state model.
Currently, Bangladesh spends about Tk1.16 lakh crore a year on social protection, roughly 2% of GDP, across more than 130 programmes including old-age allowances, widow benefits, VGD and VGF.
However, economists say increasing this allocation amid high inflation and revenue constraints will be difficult.
BNP's proposal to issue family cards to four crore households would require Tk10,000 crore a month, or Tk1.2 lakh crore a year, assuming Tk2,500 per card.
CPD's Additional Director Towfiqul said expanding social protection is necessary in principle, but sustainability depends on higher revenue and subsidy reform.
"You cannot ensure quality social security with just 2% of GDP," he said. He added that better targeting, digital databases and reduced leakage could help cover more people with the same resources.
Rather than mere policy announcements, sustainable development in the agriculture sector will only be possible if market management reforms, easier access to agricultural credit, and the expansion of technology use are ensured.
Industrialisation, energy constraints
BNP has proposed establishing small and medium industries in every district, ensuring uninterrupted gas and electricity supply to industry, reducing agricultural electricity use through canal excavation, and drilling new gas wells.
Jamaat-e-Islami has promised not to raise gas, electricity and water prices for industry for three years, with future adjustments linked to inflation and global prices once capacity improves.
Yet the reality is that gas shortages, high power generation costs and import dependence remain major challenges.
Over the past five fiscal years, the government has provided Tk2.07 lakh crore in subsidies to the power and gas sectors. In the 2024-25 fiscal year alone, subsidies reached Tk63,000 crore, nearly 10% of the national budget.
Economists warn that maintaining or increasing such subsidies would place further strain on public finances. A CPD researcher said without reform in the energy and industrial sectors, simply freezing prices will not be sustainable in the long run.
Agriculture: rising subsidy pressure
Agriculture remains vital to Bangladesh's economy and employment, and both parties have prioritised the sector. BNP has proposed agricultural cards, fair prices, canal and river dredging, cold storage expansion and agro-processing. Jamaat has promised interest-free loans for small and medium farmers.
However, the reality on the ground is different. Agricultural production costs have risen, while higher fertiliser prices and irrigation expenses are putting additional pressure on farmers.
To keep the agriculture sector afloat, the government has been increasing subsidies in this sector. In the current fiscal year's budget, Tk40,000 crore has been allocated for agriculture, fisheries, livestock and food security, which is nearly 6% of the country's GDP.
In this context, economists warn that any further increase in subsidies in this sector will put additional pressure on the national budget.
However, Mashrur Riaz, also chairman of Policy Exchange Bangladesh, believes that subsidies in the agriculture sector could be reduced if the influence of middlemen in agricultural markets is curbed and farmers are ensured fair prices.
He said that large-scale investment and administrative efficiency at the local level are needed to make canal and river dredging and the expansion of cold storage facilities effective.
"Rather than mere policy announcements, sustainable development in the agriculture sector will only be possible if market management reforms, easier access to agricultural credit, and the expansion of technology use are ensured," Mashrur said.
ICT and freelancing: potential with limits
Both parties see ICT and freelancing as future growth drivers. BNP has spoken of international payment gateways, while Jamaat has pledged 20 lakh ICT jobs and $5 billion in exports. Jamaat has also announced a 15-year roadmap under its Vision 2040.
Experts say the sector has strong potential but needs major reforms in digital payments, data security, skills development and access to global markets.
Fahim Mashroor, CEO of Bdjobs and convenor of Voice for Reform, said the targets are achievable if proper training is provided, technology products are made affordable, and special incentives are offered for advanced sectors such as semiconductors.
