Mideast war deals fresh blow to shrinking Gulf jobs for Bangladeshis

The ongoing conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran has not only heightened risks to the lives of Bangladeshi expatriates but also dealt a fresh setback to overseas employment opportunities in the Gulf, where labour markets have already been shrinking in recent years.

Data from the Bureau of Manpower, Employment and Training (BMET) show that 44,658 workers received clearance to go abroad in March this year, compared with 66,773 during the same period last year – a decline of 33%.

Additionally, overseas employment in March was 32% lower than in February, while recruitment fell to its lowest level in at least 54 months. Earlier, in April last year, Bangladesh sent 49,983 workers abroad, which at the time was the lowest monthly figure in 43 months.

Infograph: TBS

Sector insiders say job demand from Gulf countries – including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Qatar – has dropped significantly since the Middle East conflict began on 28 February, falling to between 5% and virtually zero.

At the same time, hundreds of Bangladeshi workers have been unable to travel over the past month due to flight shortages caused by airspace closures, putting their existing jobs at risk and delaying their ability to take up new opportunities.

Further stifling the sector is the closure of labour markets in Oman and Bahrain to Bangladeshi workers for several years now, while the United Arab Emirates has largely restricted the recruitment of low-skilled workers over the past one and a half years.

With limited progress in exploring new labour markets, the ongoing Middle East crisis has heightened concern among recruiters and migration experts about the future of overseas employment.

Although remittance inflows have not yet shown an immediate negative impact during the Eid period, industry insiders fear a decline if the conflict continues, as Gulf countries contribute the largest share of Bangladesh's total remittance earnings.

Meanwhile, many expatriate workers currently in Bangladesh risk having their visas expire, despite most Gulf countries extending visa validity by one month in light of the situation in the Middle East.

But the conflict has already been continuing for more than 40 days now. 

"Two UAE employers were in contact with me to recruit a significant number of drivers from Bangladesh. They were scheduled to visit Dhaka in the first week of March. However, the war has stalled the process," Shamim Ahmed Chowdhury Noman, former secretary general of the Bangladesh Association of International Recruiting Agencies (Baira), told The Business Standard.

"Many of the expected new labour demands are now on hold. If the conflict continues, new projects may also be delayed, reducing overseas employment opportunities," he added.

Shamim noted that a large portion of Bangladesh's overseas employment depends on the Middle East. "Any instability in this region directly impacts our labour market. Despite long-standing discussions about exploring new markets, progress has been insufficient."

Saudi jobs see 46% decline

Unofficial estimates suggest that about 60 lakh Bangladeshis are working in six Gulf countries, accounting for more than half of the country's total migrant workforce.

Among them, Saudi Arabia hosts more than 30 lakh workers and recruited about 67% of Bangladesh's total overseas workforce – roughly 11.3 lakh – last year.

Saudi Arabia has remained a key destination for Bangladeshi workers for more than three decades, with opportunities expanding after the Covid-19 pandemic. But in the past two months, the labour market has faced new pressure due to stricter visa policies and the ongoing regional conflict.

Tipu Sultan, a recruiter working with the Saudi labour market, said he has not received a single job demand since the conflict began.

"Even before the war, Saudi authorities had tightened visa issuance to curb fraudulent recruitment, reducing job demand to around 5%. Now, due to the conflict, new job demand has effectively dropped to zero," he said.

Sultan added, "The BMET clearance cards being issued now were processed before the war began."

BMET issued clearance cards for 24,862 workers travelling to Saudi Arabia in March, compared with 44,382 in February – a decline of about 44%.

Beyond the Gulf, countries such as Jordan, Iraq and Lebanon – also destinations for Bangladeshi workers – are now under threat as the conflict affects the wider region.

Baira members warned that if the situation does not improve quickly, the country could face declining remittance inflows and rising unemployment. They stressed the need for coordinated action by the government, relevant agencies and the private sector.

Ariful Haque Chowdhury, the expatriates' welfare and overseas employment minister, told TBS, "The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has disrupted normal operations to some extent. Recruitment processes and communication have slowed in many cases. We are closely monitoring the situation through our embassies, with the safety of Bangladeshi expatriates as the top priority."

He expressed hope that labour market activities would return to normal once the situation stabilises.

Kuwait job market stalls

Before the conflict, an average of 1,500 to 2,000 Bangladeshi workers travelled to Kuwait each month, sometimes reaching as many as 2,500.

They typically work as drivers, cleaners, construction workers and employees in various government ministries, while many are also employed as domestic workers such as houseboys, cooks and drivers.

However, the current situation has brought the process almost to a halt.

"New visa issuance has almost stopped, and business has become completely stagnant. My agency has not received any new job visas. I frequently travel to Kuwait to source jobs, but that is now impossible due to suspended flights," said Kamal Sikder, managing partner of SB International.

Workers cannot currently travel to Kuwait despite completing BMET clearance because the country's airport remains closed. BMET issued clearance for 1,539 Kuwait-bound workers in March, down from 1,852 the previous month.

Kamal said even workers whose visas had already been processed have been unable to leave.

"Those who completed BMET clearance after the 28th have not been able to fly, and even earlier candidates are still stuck. The entire process has become stagnant," he said.

He also pointed out that alternative travel routes are not feasible as they require transit visas. 

However, authorities have taken measures to arrange special flights from border areas. These weekly flights facilitate two-way travel, with passengers being transported by bus from border points to Kuwait, he said.

Workers stranded at home as visas near expiry

Some migrant workers who returned home to spend their holidays are also facing uncertainty.

Since the war began on 28 February, at least eight Bangladeshis have been killed in Gulf countries amid Iran's attacks targeting US military bases in the region. 

Dhaka and Chattogram airports have cancelled over 1,000 Middle East-bound flights as of 30 March.

Tipu Sultan said many migrant workers are facing complications such as expiring visas, leave permits, and iqama validity due to the ongoing crisis.

Authorities in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Oman, and the UAE have extended visa validity by about one month for affected workers, while Saudi Arabia has advised workers to contact their employers regarding such issues.

Need for database and new markets

Sector insiders emphasised the need to develop a comprehensive database covering workers awaiting departure, visa processing stages, and current labour demand. Such a system would enable faster decision-making and more effective policy responses.

Recruiters also stressed the importance of expanding into alternative labour markets, including Europe, Japan, South Korea, Russia, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand. However, these markets often require longer visa processing times, language proficiency, and specialised skills.

"Global demand is increasingly shifting towards skilled and specialised workers. We must prepare our workforce with technical skills, language training, and professional development," said Jalal Uddin Shikder, a migration expert and faculty member at North South University.