Kishore Mahbubani in Dhaka: Geopolitical terrain gets trickier amid US-China contest

The 'geopolitical contest' between the United States and China will only grow in intensity over the next 10 years, affecting billions around the globe, while countries like Bangladesh will face great challenges in managing all its impacts. 

That is according to the renowned author, diplomat and geopolitical consultant Kishore Mahbubani, who delivered the keynote address at the latest edition of the Cosmos Dialogue at a city hotel on Sunday.

"No matter where you live, no matter what you do, your lives will be affected or disrupted by this geopolitical contest. I can guarantee you," said Mahbubani, former Dean of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, Singapore. 

Cosmos Foundation, the philanthropic arm of the Cosmos Group, hosted the dialogue titled "Emerging Asian Nations in Global Geopolitics: Implications for Bangladesh" as part of its Distinguished Speakers' Series, chaired by Dr Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury,  ex-permanent representative of Bangladesh to the UN in New York, as well as advisor on foreign affairs to the last caretaker government. 

The opening remarks were delivered by Cosmos Foundation Chairman Enayetullah Khan. 

Photo: UNB

Mahbubani, an analyst with unrivalled access to policymakers in Beijing and Washington, said the world is in a difficult and complex situation, and termed the contest between the USA and China as the 'biggest since the beginning of history' - given the sheer size, scale and influence of the contestants.   

As a result, Mahbubani, who served two stints as Singapore's permanent representative to the UN, including a spell as president of the Security Council between 2001 and 2002, said Bangladesh will face difficulties and challenges as it wants to have good ties with both the US and China. 

He said the situation is a bit harder in South Asia due to the absence of any effective regional association like ASEAN. With SAARC proving ineffective, Mahbubani believes how India handles the fallout of the US-China contest would have bearing on Bangladesh.  

Enayetullah Khan said geopolitics and geo-economics will play out in multiple modes, that will find consequence in a complex matrix of conflict and confrontation, and that will perhaps form the basis of a new global order as the twenty-first century unfolds. 

For the developing world, and much of Asia is still developing, he said, these complexities are bound to exacerbate the challenges, and also compound the impediments to progress.

Khan said countries like Bangladesh will need to chart a behaviour pattern that would enable them to move forward and protect the fruits of our achievements.

"In addition, we would need to confront the inexorable effects of Climate-Change and possible future hazards as pandemics," he said.

Dr Chowdhury noted the world is confronting a series of serious crises and the list is long. "The most salient among them are conflicts between and within nations, pandemics and health hazards, the climate emergency, debt distress, ever rising cost of living, supply chain disruptions, and widening inequalities," he said.

Photo: UNB

The foreign affairs expert said the post-World War II rules-based international order, with global norms and standards established by tireless endeavours through multilateral institutions, is severely stressed.

He said social compacts created through arduous efforts of decades appear to be breaking down. "The situation is what the great Australian scholar Coral Bell would have described as an inexorable crisis slide.

Outgoing Chinese Ambassador to Bangladesh Li Jiming wanted to know whether there is any scope for Bangladesh to play a role to bring China and India closer together. 

"I must say it's a very challenging question. On one hand, frankly it will be very dangerous for Bangladesh," the expert responded.