From Joburg to Delhi: PM treads geopolitical highway in election year

As the election politics gets momentum in Bangladesh, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina is set to attend two crucial gatherings by September in the wake of global and regional shifts.

The premier will meet her Indian counterpart Narendra Modi on the sidelines of the BRICS Summit as leaders of the loose club of nations representing a quarter of the global economy will sit in South Africa from 22 to 24 August.

Just in less than three weeks, she will fly to New Delhi to attend the G20 Summit, also to be joined by US President Joe Biden. 

These two events come just months ahead of the next parliamentary election of Bangladesh – in which regional and global powers take interest while foreign delegates visited Dhaka to discuss politics and polls recently.

In June, when Bangladesh made a request to join BRICS, China said it was ready to welcome more members to the coalition.

"As an important platform for cooperation among emerging markets and developing countries, BRICS is committed to upholding multilateralism, vigorously advancing the reform of the global governance system…" said a Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson.

Bangladesh's decision to join BRICS, which groups Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, with a share of global GDP surpassing that of rich nations' club G7, is seen as a move to diversify foreign relations and currency.

While immediate benefits may not be apparent, analysts believe that joining BRICS will yield medium- to long-term advantages as the bloc actively expands to reduce the dominance of the US and the US dollar.

G20 meet crucial for PM Hasina

Another crucial event awaiting Prime Minister Hasina is in New Delhi on September 9-10. 

The 18th G20 Heads of State and Government Summit will be a culmination of all the G20 processes and meetings held throughout the year among ministers, senior officials, and civil societies.

A G20 Leaders' Declaration will be adopted at the conclusion of the New Delhi Summit, stating leaders' commitment towards the priorities discussed and agreed upon during the respective ministerial and working group meetings.

Talking to reporters, Foreign Minister AK Abdul Momen had earlier said that New Delhi will be better than Johannesburg for a bilateral meeting with the Indian PM. The two countries are already in touch regarding the meeting.

Momen also said that Africa is a "rising star", and Bangladesh wants to make stronger connections with countries in the continent, writes UNB.

This will be the first in-person BRICS Summit since 2019. The Summit will provide an opportunity to review progress of the initiatives launched by the group and identify future areas of activity.

Indian Prime Minister Modi will also participate in a special event titled "BRICS – Africa Outreach and BRICS Plus Dialogue" being organised after the BRICS Summit, which will include other countries invited by South Africa.

During Modi's visit to the US in June, President Biden said he was looking forward to the G20 Summit in New Delhi.

The diplomatic circle in Dhaka will closely watch the G20 meet, not just because this is hosted by Bangladesh's close-door neighbour with the PM joining it. 

There will be a lot of speculation if she will have any meeting with the world's most powerful man. There is, so far, no public schedule that Hasina will have any meeting with Biden. 

Dhaka-Washington ties see some strain

Recently, Dhaka-Washington ties saw a lot of ups and downs stemming from the sanctions on RAB and visa warnings, as well as recent comments on Bangladesh politics by high officials of the superpower.

According to foreign media reports, India does not agree with America's stance and New Delhi clarified its views on Bangladesh in a diplomatic message before the G20 meeting. 

The South Block feels that the American administration "directly interfered" with the internal politics of Bangladesh by adopting a separate visa policy for that country, according to the Anandabazar. 

There is indication that during this summit, there may be a parallel meeting on the elections of Bangladesh and the geopolitics of the subcontinent, suggests a report of DW Bangla. 

Experts believe the G20 Summit might work as an occasion to diffuse some of the tensions between Bangladesh and the US.

Two summits opportunities for PM Hasina

Talking to The Business Standard, former foreign secretary Md Touhid Hossain said, "We are not a party to any BRICS or G-20 summit. Rather, we are going to both summits as invitees. But what's important to us is that these two summits have created an opportunity for our leaders to meet the leaders of India and the US on the sidelines. And I guess that will happen.

"In recent days, we have seen some moves from big powers over our upcoming election. They feel they have a vested interest in how the next election will be held. Now if there is a change through a fair election, the United States does not see it as a problem. That is why they have been speaking of a free-fair election."

"On the other hand," said the former secretary, "if the current power equation continues, then it benefits India. India is Awami League's long-time ally. So they might not want a change. They are, however, not saying that they do not want a fair election in Bangladesh. But if there is no power change, it is beneficial for them." 

From this point of view, Touhid Hossain thinks all the powerful countries will want their views on the Bangladesh elections to be reflected in BRICS and G20 Meets. "That is the importance of the summits for us." 

He concluded, "Since the US is not in BRICS, there is nothing for India to send out a message to the US from South Africa. But I guess at the G20 Summit, everyone will try to play their cards. And maybe after the G20 Summit, we will have a clearer idea of what is really going to happen."