HSBC expects 5% GDP growth for Bangladesh in 2026

Bangladesh has emerged with resilience from its challenges over the past few years and is expected to post a GDP growth of 5% in 2026, according to Frederic Neumann, chief Asia economist and co-head of Global Research Asia at Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation (HSBC) Limited.

Speaking at an event titled "Bangladesh and the World: Economic Prospects for 2026 and beyond" organised by HSBC Bangladesh today (2 March), Neumann shared a cautiously optimistic outlook for the economy while emphasising the need for stability and reform. He said Bangladesh has demonstrated resilience in overcoming economic challenges in recent years, reads a press release. 

HSBC expects Bangladesh's GDP growth to reach 5% in 2026 and 5.5% the following year. For calendar year 2026, the bank forecasts export value growth of 4.1%, adds the press release. 

He noted that remittance inflows are rising year-on-year, reflecting growing trust in official money transfer channels. Combined with easing inflation, this is expected to support private consumption.

"With the conclusion of the recent general election, investment by domestic and foreign businesses may begin to pick up modestly. However, any acceleration will depend on the new government's ability to restore investor confidence and reinforce law and order," Neumann said.

He also pointed out that Bangladesh is set to graduate from least developed country (LDC) status in November 2026, underscoring the need to enhance export competitiveness through expanded market access, improved governance and stronger infrastructure.

A potential slowdown in global consumer demand due to US tariffs remains the biggest external risk, he added, stressing the urgency of accelerating trade negotiations with the European Union, Bangladesh's largest garment export market.

Neumann said the formation of a new government following a largely peaceful election provides a clear mandate to pursue reforms and deliver stability.

"The reset begins," he said, adding that the administration must address the aspirations of the country's young population while demonstrating commitment to promised reforms.

Kausar Alam, president of The Institute of Cost and Management Accountants of Bangladesh (ICMAB) and CFO of Seven Rings Cement Ltd., said the event provided valuable insights into Bangladesh's evolving macroeconomic trajectory within a global context.

Jignesh Ruparel, chief financial officer of HSBC Bangladesh, presented an overview of the group's latest annual global financial results and highlighted the bank's international footprint across 56 countries and territories. He said HSBC's 161-year history is rooted in facilitating local and international trade.

Md Mahbub ur Rahman, chief executive officer of HSBC Bangladesh, said the bank's strong 2025 performance reflects the strength of its global network and client trust.

"As Bangladesh enters a pivotal new chapter of reform and growth, our role is to connect local ambition with global opportunity," he said.

The event was attended by chief financial officers, stakeholders and senior officials from local and multinational companies.