Obesity battle heats up again as Novo claws way back into race with Lilly

Novo Nordisk investors have found little cause for optimism during a bruising two-year period of profit warnings, leadership upheaval and a sliding share price as rival Eli Lilly streaked ahead. Now they may have reason for hope.

Despite Novo having lost ground in injectable GLP-1s in recent years, the Danish obesity drugmaker is getting a boost from its new Wegovy weight-loss pill that is holding onto its lead against Lilly's more recently launched Foundayo.

The pair are battling for dominance in the obesity drug market, which analysts expect to be worth more than $100 billion by the end of the decade in the US alone.
Novo's shares have climbed some 35% from a March low, with the company looking to go on the offensive - including with a divisive court case against Lilly over what it calls misleading marketing in the vital US market.

"Novo is a different Novo today than a year ago," said Morten Gregersen, chief portfolio manager at Danish asset manager Formuepleje, a Novo shareholder. "They're much more consumer-oriented and they've become much more aggressive."

Novo vs Lilly: comeback story?

Analysts and shareholders will look for clues from management that Novo's turnaround is durable when the company reports second-quarter results on 5 August, and that it can keep pace with Lilly over the longer term.

The US drugmaker reports results on the same day, and analysts broadly expect robust sales of its blockbuster weight-loss and diabetes injections, Mounjaro and Zepbound.

Recent IQVIA prescription data suggests demand for oral Wegovy remains stronger than analysts initially expected and well above Lilly's Foundayo, although Barclays noted the figures understate total Foundayo demand because they exclude certain distribution channels.

"One of the concerns had been that orforglipron from Lilly was going to come along and make things a lot tougher for oral Wegovy," said Barclays analyst James Gordon, using the generic name for Foundayo. "But so far... orforglipron doesn't really seem to have impacted the product."

Are we at an inflection point?

Novo spent 2025 on the defensive as mounting US pricing pressure and competition led to four guidance cuts and wiped billions from its market value. The company replaced its CEO and launched a restructuring that cut 9,000 jobs.

This year, Novo has regained some momentum with oral Wegovy, which it launched in the US in January, firing hopes that the worst may be behind it.

The pill, however, has yet to alter the broader picture. After overtaking Wegovy injections last year, Lilly's Zepbound has maintained a commanding lead in the US market, with weekly prescriptions more than double those of Novo's drug in recent months. Novo's ability to broaden beyond obesity and diabetes is also under scrutiny after a recent heart disease drug trial fail.

"The real question is...when is the inflection point? Which particular quarter looks like a trough, and then do we see growth back from that point?" said HSBC analyst Rajesh Kumar.

He said expectations for 2026 had improved, though that partly reflected generic competition for Wegovy arriving later than previously expected, pushing some of the pressure into 2027 rather than eliminating it.

Novo vs Lilly: diverging fortunes

While US weight-loss drug rival Eli Lilly has soared, Denmark's Novo Nordisk has shed the gains it made on its blockbuster Wegovy weight-loss drug. It's now trying to make a comeback.

Novo Nordisk looks to 'make some noise'

Novo and Lilly's rivalry has spilled into the courts. Last month, Novo sued Lilly in a US federal court, accusing it of false advertising for using comparisons of efficacy that omit its newer, higher-dose Wegovy. Lilly has denied the allegations.

BMO analyst Evan Seigerman said that Novo was being more "aggressive" and trying to "make some noise", even if the suit was unlikely to make a huge difference.
"It's kind of like using a lawsuit as a bit of publicity to shift opinions," he said.

Others like Sven Borho, managing partner at Orbimed, said that the suit would struggle to change the perception in the US that Zepbound was superior to Wegovy. Instead, he said Novo needed to strike deals in the obesity space to persuade the market that they can compete with Lilly long term.

Analysts said Novo could edge up its full-year outlook, though the main positive may be a lack of crisis and drama.

"Even if there is no guidance raise, it will be comforting to know that the company has left the era of profit warnings," said Markus Manns, portfolio manager at Union Investment.

Zepbound: marching ahead

US prescriptions for Lilly's Zepbound surged past Novo's Wegovy last year. Zepbound's weekly total prescriptions have been more than double those for Wegovy in recent months.