Low-pressure intensifies, potential cyclone likely to make landfall Friday
Earlier on 17 October, meteorological agencies based in India, the United States and the European Union forecasted that a cyclone is feared to be brewing in the Bay of Bengal later this week
The low-pressure system over the Bay of Bengal intensified into a well-marked low-pressure area this afternoon (21 October) and is expected to strengthen further.
According to the Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD), it is likely to turn into a depression tomorrow (22 October) and develop into a cyclonic storm by Wednesday (23 October).
If the system intensifies into a cyclone, it will be named "Dana." Meteorologists have predicted that the cyclone could make landfall early Friday morning, potentially affecting Bangladesh's Khulna and adjacent coastal areas.
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Several meteorological models suggest that wind speeds off the Odisha-West Bengal coast are expected to reach 60 km/h from Wednesday, increasing to 120 km/h between Thursday night and Friday morning.
The BMD's Storm Warning Centre issued an advisory yesterday evening, stating, "The low pressure over the East-central Bay of Bengal and adjoining North Andaman Sea area intensified into a well-marked low pressure over the same area. It is likely to move in a west-northwesterly direction and intensify into a cyclonic storm."
The advisory also urged all fishing boats and trawlers over the North Bay and the deep sea to return close to the coast and remain cautious until further notice, to ensure they can seek shelter quickly if necessary.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) provided further details, reporting that Sunday's low-pressure area over the East-central Bay of Bengal and North Andaman Sea had moved west-northwestwards and intensified into a well-marked low-pressure area by Monday morning.
According to the IMD, the system is likely to develop into a depression by Tuesday and a cyclonic storm by Wednesday.
It is expected to intensify into a severe cyclonic storm over the northwest Bay of Bengal by Thursday morning, with a projected landfall along the Odisha-West Bengal coast between Thursday night and early Friday. Wind speeds are forecast to reach 100-110 km/h, with gusts of up to 120 km/h.
Meteorologist Mostofa Kamal Palash, a PhD researcher in meteorology and climate at the University of Saskatchewan, told The Business Standard, "There is a possibility that the developing cyclone Dana in the Bay of Bengal will hit the coast by Thursday night."
He explained, based on data from Japan's artificial geostationary satellite, that the wind speed near the centre of the well-marked low-pressure area was about 50 km/h as of Monday afternoon. "It is currently moving northwestward and is expected to continue in this direction for the next two days."
Palash also highlighted the role of sea surface temperatures in cyclone formation, saying, "The sea surface temperature where the well-marked low-pressure area is currently located is 29 degrees Celsius. When the temperature exceeds 26 degrees Celsius, it creates favourable conditions for cyclone development. As the system moves north and northwest, the sea surface temperature will rise, increasing the likelihood that the system will intensify over the next three days."
In its Monday evening bulletin, the BMD reported that rain or thundershowers are likely at one or two places over the Chattogram division, while the rest of the country is expected to remain mostly dry with temporarily partly cloudy skies. Rainfall was recorded in Cox's Bazar Sadar and Teknaf, both receiving 2 mm of rain today.
