Dhaka's 60% waterbodies lost in 44 years, built-up areas surged 7 times: Study
Dhaka city lost more than 60% of its waterbodies in 44 years and its built-up area grew around 7 times, driven by unplanned urban expansion, according to a recent study.
The study titled "Dhaka Without Nature? Rethinking Natural Rights Led Urban Sustainability", also reveals that during the period, Dhaka's land surface temperature rose by 3–5°C, making parts of the city uninhabitable by ecological standards.
The study finding, launched today in Dhaka, reframes Dhaka's crisis as not just an urban planning failure, but a violation of ecological justice and fundamental rights.
M Zakir Hossain Khan, chief executive of the Change Initiative, said with tree cover now at 11.6%, waterbody coverage at 1-2%, and rising temperatures threatening urban health, the city is on the verge of climate collapse.
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The study, done by the Change Initiative, is based on 44 years (between 1980 and 2024) of satellite data, heat mapping, and spatial growth analysis.
Green and blue spaces disappearing
According to the findings, tree cover in Dhaka has dropped from 21.6% to 11.6%, with per capita tree coverage standing at only 3.44 m², far below the global minimum standard of 9 m²/person.
The situation is worse in Dhaka South (2.33 m²/person), while Dhaka North is 4.23 m²/person. Adabar, Rampura, Kafrul, Bangshal, and Wari areas in the city have virtually no trees.
Cities like Singapore and Seoul maintain tree coverage between 30 - 47%. Even Delhi and Jakarta rank ahead. Only Karachi trails Dhaka, he added.
In terms of waterbodies, the city has only 4.8% coverage left, with a per capita waterbody area of just 1.43 m², compared to the recommended 4.5 m²/person. The dry zones are Sutrapur, Mirpur, Gendaria, and Kafrul are nearly waterless. Only 6 thanas barely meet the minimum waterbody standard.
By 2024, the city's built-up area had expanded to 48.9%, up from just 6.8% in 1980.
Heat island effect intensifies
M Zakir Hossain Khan, also lead author of the study, warned, "Dhaka is heading towards a population of 25 million by 2035, with dangerously low tree and waterbody coverage. We are on a path toward ecological ruin unless we change direction."
The study shows a land surface temperature (LST) increase of 3–5°C, with no area remaining under 30°C—well above the comfortable range of 26–30°C. Areas like Shyampur, Hazaribagh, Tejgaon, Rampura, and Darussalam have LSTs exceeding 32°C, making them urban heat islands.
Additionally, 37 out of 50 thanas in Dhaka now exceed the maximum built-up standard of 50%. Adabar, Mirpur, Rampura, Uttara Paschim, Kafrul, Bangshal, Sutrapur, Wari, Kalabagan, Dhanmondi, Shyampur, Kotwali, Chalkbazar, Paltan, Hazaribagh reached 80-90% built-up density. This lack of ecological buffers is pushing Dhaka closer to, what experts call, climate collapse.
Call for ecological justice and urgent action
The study advocates for a NRLG-aligned recovery plan that includes: Legal recognition of nature's rights, criminalisation of wetland and forest destruction, DAP reform with ecological zoning, community guardianship of resources, green investments in low-income areas, and planting 56.5 km² of trees in ecologically deprived zones.
While talking to TBS, M Zakir Hossain said, "If unplanned development continues, Dhaka could face abandonment within the next 10 years, with a major disaster looming. To prevent this, it is crucial to protect and properly plan the use of remaining green spaces, water bodies, and open areas."
Echoing the urgency, Riffat Mahmood, associate professor at Jagannath University, emphasised transforming urban spaces—such as flyovers into vertical gardens—and promoting environmental education to build long-term resilience.
The Change Initiative calls for immediate, measurable government action to avert Dhaka's ecological breakdown.
