COP30 in Belém: Adaptation gains and equity progress, but fossil fuel phase-out stalls

UN climate talks in Belém concluded after a tense 24-hour extension, delivering notable gains on adaptation finance, operationalising the Loss and Damage Fund, advancing gender-responsive climate action, and establishing a new Just Transition Mechanism. Yet the summit failed to agree on a roadmap to phase out fossil fuels, as demanded by over 88 countries, raising doubts over global efforts to limit warming to 1.5°C.

The summit agreed to double climate adaptation finance by 2025, triple global flows to US$120 billion annually by 2035, and open direct-access channels for vulnerable nations to receive US$5–20 million per year from the Loss and Damage Fund.

"The summit delivered breakthroughs to triple adaptation finance, protect forests, and elevate Indigenous voices," said Ani Dasgupta, president and CEO of the World Resources Institute (WRI). "But negotiators couldn't agree on a roadmap to transition away from fossil fuels, leaving many disappointed." Brazil's presidency will now attempt to craft a credible roadmap outside formal negotiations.

Fossil fuel deadlock 

Despite two nights of intense talks, COP30 contains no explicit reference to phasing out coal, oil, or gas. Vulnerable countries, European nations, and Latin American states such as Colombia voiced objections. More than 80 countries sought a clear pathway, but Saudi Arabia and other major oil producers defended their sovereign right to exploit fossil resources. Dr AKM Saiful Islam of BUET warned that without a fossil-fuel phase-out and grant-based public finance, poorer nations remain dangerously exposed.

Adaptation finance and loss & damage

Delegates approved direct access to US$5–20 million annually from the Loss and Damage Fund, urging evidence-based proposals within six months. The fund currently holds US$756 million, with no major new pledges, leaving much of the burden on vulnerable nations. 

Hafizul Islam, co-chair of the WIM Executive Committee, stressed that countries like Bangladesh must prepare robust proposals. Civil society criticised the package as insufficient. "Tripling finance by 2035 ignores villages already washed away and farms burning today," said Harjeet Singh of Satat Sampada Climate Foundation.

COP30 adopted the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) indicators, though the final 60-metric list was weakened by last-minute edits. While progress on National Adaptation Plans was acknowledged, guidance on scaling support, linking adaptation with biodiversity, and mainstreaming risk management remains limited.

Gender and just transition prioritised

Two equity-driven outcomes stood out: the strengthened Gender Action Plan (GAP) and the new Just Transition Mechanism. 

The updated GAP mandates gender-disaggregated data, gender analysis in decision-making, and integration of gender equality into national climate policies. 

The Just Transition Mechanism prioritises labour rights, Indigenous Peoples' protection, and social justice. Both were welcomed, though operational success depends on political will and funding.

Mixed reactions among experts and climate advocates

Bangladeshi youth delegate Sohanur Rahman said, "Progress on adaptation and just transition is real, but without confronting fossil fuels, the final deal falls short for frontline communities." 

Manjeet Dhakal, Head of the LDC Support Team, described the "Mutirão" package as inclusive, noting essential concepts are in place but emphasising the need for implementation.

The finance outcome reflected both ambition and hesitation. While the global needs of $1.3 trillion annually by 2035 were recognised, no binding targets were set for developed nations. 

M Zakir Hossain Khan of Change Initiative said vulnerable nations remain pushed into debt for a crisis they did not create. Singh added the finance package "falls short of legal and moral responsibilities."

Looking ahead: COP31 and COP32

UN Climate Chief Simon Stiell said COP30 showed that multilateral climate diplomacy remains alive. "The old polluting economy is running out of road, but disinformation is trying to keep it alive," he warned. 

While the Belém summit advanced adaptation, gender, and just transition, the absence of a fossil-fuel phase-out roadmap underscores ongoing uncertainty.

COP31 will be held in Antalya, Turkey, with Australia presiding over negotiations. Brazil plans to advance its fossil-fuel transition roadmap at the G20 summit in Johannesburg. 

COP32 in Ethiopia, the first hosted by a Least Developed Country, is expected to focus global attention on the needs of vulnerable nations. The success of COP31 will depend on whether countries act, not just promise.