Climate crisis may send rice gap to 36 lakh tonnes in 2030

The country's rice production will be 36 lakh tonnes less than the annual demand in 2030 if the adverse impacts of climate change remain unchecked, according to a research.

It notes the local demand of the food staple will be 391 crore tonnes in 2030, and 426 crore tonnes in 2050.

In 2050, the rice gap due to the climate emergency will be 19 lakh tonnes, said the research titled "Projection of supply and demand for selected food crops in Bangladesh by 2030 and 2050" by the Bangladesh Agricultural Research Council (Barc).

Crop data show the country's rice production in 2021 was 11 lakh tonnes less than the estimation owing to natural calamities. According to the food ministry, Bangladesh imported 13 lakh tonnes of rice in FY21 to fill up the demand gap.

At a programme in Dhaka on Tuesday to reveal the research findings, Agriculture Minister Muhammad Abdur Razzaque said this year's rainfall is record low in 40 years, causing serious trouble to Aman paddy plantation.

"Pumps are struggling to continue irrigation thanks to a rise in oil prices and countrywide scheduled load-shedding. We have called for an uninterrupted power supply to rural areas at night for at least 15 days," he added.

The research projects the yields of 35 food grains in 2030 and 2050. It says per capita calorie intake from rice was around 80% in 2019, which fell to around 70% in 2021. The figure has been projected at around 72% and 70% respectively in 2030 and 2050 as calorie intake from wheat will rise.

The research says per capita calorie intake from wheat is now around 66%.

"Local wheat demand was 41 lakh tonnes in 2021 as it would be 46 lakh tonnes and 52 lakh tonnes respectively in 2030 and 2050," said lead researcher Prof SM Fakhrul Islam, adding, "The demand and supply gap will remain large unless the wheat production increases significantly."

In 2021, maize supply was 42 lakh tonnes against the demand of 57 lakh tonnes. The demand will rise to 58 and 87 lakh tonnes respectively in 2030 and 2050. But maize will register a production surplus as the supply will be more due to a jump in production.

However, Agriculture Minister Abdur Razzaque was critical of the projected demand for wheat and maize.

He said, "Right now, the demand for maize is 65 lakh tonnes, with 55 lakh tonnes produced locally and 10 lakh tonnes imported. But there is a huge difference between the information stated in the research and the reality."

He said maize and wheat demand will increase manifold in the future with more capacity building and utilisation of the livestock sector.

According to the findings, local production will not be able to meet the ticking up demand for mustard oil. Among the spices, only onion production will be surplus but ginger, garlic, chilli and turmeric production will fall short of the demand. The same will be the case for pulses.

But vegetables will be more than the demand. Even if the production of fruits increases, it will not be possible to meet all the demand.

The research emphasised the use of improved seeds, adopting climate tolerant technologies, increasing crop productivity, maintaining a 10-20 lakh tonne rice stock to face natural calamities and ensuring fair prices to farmers. It also stressed on supply chain and market modernisation.