Crisis Group urges Indian, Bangladeshi political parties to exercise restraint

The International Crisis Group has urged both India and Bangladeshi political parties to exercise restraint ahead of Bangladesh's general election, warning that provocative statements and nationalist rhetoric risk heightening tensions and undermining the electoral environment.

"India should avoid provocative statements that would be seen in Bangladesh as meddling in its polls, and Bangladeshi parties should avoid taking rhetorical shots at New Delhi in order to score nationalist points with voters," it said in a report published yesterday (23 December).

Relations between Bangladesh and India have come under severe strain following the August 2024 ouster of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, ending what New Delhi had described as a "golden era" (shonali adhyay) of bilateral cooperation, according to analysts and diplomatic sources.

The deterioration marks a sharp reversal after more than a decade of close security, economic and political alignment between the neighbours, and has raised concerns on both sides about trade, border security and regional geopolitics, says a report published by the International Crisis Group.

End of a close partnership

From 2009, Hasina's Awami League government pursued what it described as an India-positive foreign policy, delivering major gains for New Delhi.

Bangladesh moved to dismantle Indian insurgent networks operating from its territory and addressed Indian concerns over Islamist militancy, according to security officials. The two countries resolved long-standing land and maritime border disputes, while India extended about $8 billion in lines of credit for infrastructure projects.

Transit agreements also allowed Indian goods easier access to the country's landlocked northeastern states.

However, India's continued backing of Hasina through elections in 2014, 2018 and 2024, which were widely criticised by observers as flawed, generated resentment among sections of Bangladeshi society, analysts say. That sentiment intensified after Hasina fled to India following her removal from office in August 2024.

Frictions under interim government

Since an interim administration led by Muhammad Yunus took power, relations have been marked by public disputes and retaliatory measures.

Dhaka has criticised sections of Indian media for overstating attacks on Hindus in Bangladesh, saying political and economic disputes were often portrayed as religious violence. Some Hindu community leaders in Bangladesh have warned that such coverage has increased insecurity.

India sharply reduced visa issuances following Hasina's departure, cutting daily approvals from about 8,000 to roughly 1,000, according to officials, affecting medical travel and education.

Economic tensions have also risen. A dispute over roughly $800 million owed to Adani Power led the Indian firm to cut electricity supply to Bangladesh by half, sources said. Both countries have imposed reciprocal restrictions on road-based trade, including jute and garment exports.

Bangladesh has meanwhile sought to rebalance its foreign relations, strengthening engagement with China and Pakistan. Yunus has invited Chinese investment near the strategically sensitive "Chicken's Neck" corridor and held meetings with Pakistani leaders, moves that have raised concern in New Delhi.

Border tensions and migration

The 4,096-km border remains a major source of tension.

Despite earlier commitments to reduce fatalities, the Indian Border Security Force (BSF) continues to kill and injure Bangladeshi civilians along the frontier, Bangladeshi officials say. India maintains that its forces act in self-defence against smuggling and illegal crossings.

Bangladesh's Border Guard has taken a firmer stance on fencing, blocking BSF construction within 150 yards of the boundary, an area restricted under a 1975 agreement.

In mid-2025, India began expelling thousands of Muslims to Bangladesh, citing illegal immigration, according to the International Crisis Group. Dhaka has protested the move, describing it as unlawful and politically motivated amid elections in Indian border states such as Assam.

Election seen as opportunity

Analysts say Bangladesh's national election, scheduled for Feb. 12, 2026, offers the best chance for resetting ties.

With the Awami League barred from political activity, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) is widely viewed as the frontrunner. Although historically wary of India, the BNP has sought to present itself as a secular and liberal alternative open to engagement with New Delhi.

Experts say India should broaden its outreach beyond a single political ally and engage across Bangladesh's political spectrum, including Islamist parties such as Jamaat-e-Islami and newer student-led groups like the National Citizen Party.

The expiry of the Ganges Water Sharing Treaty in December 2026 is expected to be a critical test of cooperation.

Calls for de-escalation

Diplomatic sources say India may need to restore visa services and trade links as part of a broader outreach, while Bangladesh is expected to offer assurances that its territory will not be used by insurgent or extremist groups.

Both sides have been urged by analysts to scale back public accusations and return to professional diplomatic engagement as they navigate a more complex phase in the relationship.