50% rise in technological efficiency may lead to 18 lakh job losses in Bangladesh: BIDS
10 lakh job losses are expected in the RMG sector alone
A 50% increase in technological efficiency could result in the loss of approximately 18 lakh jobs in Bangladesh, with the textile and ready-made garment (RMG) sector being the most impacted, according to a study by the Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS).
The findings, presented during the session "Technology, Supply Chain, and Employment in Firms" on the second day of the "Annual BIDS Conference on Development 2024" in Dhaka, were based on the Solow growth model.
Farhin Islam, a research associate at BIDS, revealed that 10 lakh job losses are expected in the RMG sector alone.
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The study also identified other vulnerable sectors, including non-metals, food products, leather and leather goods, furniture, pharmaceuticals, and plastic and rubber industries.
Speaking to The Business Standard, Farhin Islam clarified, "We found this assuming there is no growth in the manufacturing sector. However, if the manufacturing sector grows by 10%, the total job creation by 2025, even with a 50% rise in technological efficiency, could surpass the losses, creating over 20 lakh jobs."
Job growth is projected in sectors such as food processing, paper products, coke and refined petroleum, non-metal mineral products, and computer and electronics manufacturing.
"The unemployment we forecast will be much lower with labour-augmenting technology rather than labour-replacing technology," she said, emphasising the need to upskill the labour force.
"If we can skill up the workforce, we can boost output while preserving jobs," she added, urging the government to implement more measures for workforce development.
Session discussants highlighted the importance of adopting technology while considering its social implications.
BIDS Director General Binayak Sen noted, "It is also essential to research how technology would impact gender-based employment."
The session was moderated by Sajjad Zohir, executive director of the Economic Research Group (ERG).
Presentations were also made by BIDS researchers Monzur Hossain, Kazi Iqbal, and Jayed Bin Sattar.
