What another win by Modi will mean for Bangladesh

Prime Minister Narendra Modi was among the first world leaders to congratulate Sheikh Hasina on her re-triumph in 7 January 2024 elections, a fourth straight term for her. Perhaps, the time has come for Sheikh Hasina to reciprocate on a hat-trick win for Modi as Indian exit polls suggest. 

With the seventh and last phase of voting in the world's largest democracy of 96.9 crore eligible voters for 543 contested seats ending on Saturday, exit polls started to surface in the Indian media. None of the polls has any indication of Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) getting less than 272 seats, the magic number for majority in the Lok Sabha, by BJP-led NDA bloc. Most of the polls kept the tally at 350 plus.

Although all the exit polls, except one, kept BJP and their allies below their dream 400 constituencies, none has any indication that INDIA bloc led by Congress Party is close to anywhere near 295 seats as claimed by Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge. He however has some concern about EVM counting and asked the Indian Election Commission to address some issues.

Like Kharge, leaders of his INDIA bloc are also claiming that peoples' survey carried out by them suggest a clear majority. Somnath Bharti, a candidate of Aam Admi Party (AAP) of Arvind Kejriwal, is one of them. He said all exit polls (of media) will be proven wrong when the votes will be counted on 4 June. Bharti announced he will shave his head if Narendra Modi comes to power for a straight third time.

If exit polls are not wrong, chances of which is very nominal, Narendra Modi is likely to take oath on 9 June.

Bangladesh and Bangladeshi people have kept sharp eyes on the final results of the next-door neighbour's marathon elections. Despite all the major political parties in India considering Bangladesh a critical ally for its strategic position in the region, Modi's third consecutive triumph is something special for both the countries when Sheikh Hasina is in power for about 16 years.

Although a new horizon in Bangladesh-India relations emerged at the hands of Sheikh Hasina and Dr Manmohon Singh, although India's Congress Party and Awami League has historic relations since Bangladesh's Liberation War, although the two families leading the two leading parties in two countries have emotional friendship, the relationship gained momentum after the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) - alliance of right-leaning political parties in India led by BJP - came to power in 2014.

We know the story since then. The two countries never saw a friendship of such a height like that of the last 10 years under the leadership of Sheikh Hasina in Bangladesh and Narendra Modi in India.

Despite a few ups and downs, the two countries in the last one decade developed cooperation in all the sectors-- trade, energy, infrastructure, connectivity, defence, security, education, culture and science. The execution of land boundary agreement in 2015 was a historic event. Still, Bangladesh has more to get.

With Modi poised to be Indian Premier again, Sheikh Hasina's positive rapport with him provides an opportunity for the two countries to address unresolved conflicts.

Teesta is one contentious issue between the two countries. An agreement couldn't be signed during Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh's visit to Dhaka in 2011 due to objections from West Bengal's Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee. Later Narendra Modi also could not proceed with it due to same objection. Can he do it in his third term? That is a burgeoning question.

Another matter is Rohingya issue, a heavy burden for Bangladesh in one side and also a geopolitical issue for the peace loving nation on the other. Dhaka wants more from New Delhi to press the Junta of Myanmar. Will Modi be able to do this in his third term?

Bangladesh also doesn't want to listen to rhetoric of Modi's party leaders on so-called illegal migrants. Can Narendra Modi stop his unstoppable mouth-pieces from Uttar Pradesh to Assam? Can he stop this nasty politics which may have adverse impact on a neighbouring secular country?

These things are essential for Narendra Modi himself as he has problems on the contentious matter inside his country, too.

Although his BJP in its 2024 election manifesto promised to continue observing the "Neighbourhood First policy", the Congress and its allies repeatedly berated the BJP over growing anti-India sentiments in the neighborhood with "India Out" campaigns in several countries.

Blaming Narendra Modi and BJP for a situation like this, the Congress in its manifesto promised to restore a "special relationship" with Nepal and Bhutan, enhance economic and cultural relations with Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, and repair ties with the Maldives. It is in fact manifestation of Gujral doctrine of good faith and trust with the neighbours.

For Sheikh Hasina and Bangladesh, it is not a big deal even if the Gujral doctrine of friendship stages a comeback by ruling out the exit polls. But, a third term for Modi will have to recognise real people-centric relationship with neighbours, including Bangladesh.

Remember that Narendra Modi while congratulating Sheikh Hasina on her elections victory had underlined New Delhi's commitment to deepening the "people-centric partnership" and illustrating the close bilateral relationship between the South Asian neighbours.