Official stats show farmland growth—but where is it?
On the surface, the numbers tell a story. But sometimes, it takes a little digging beyond the surface to find out what it really is
Highlights:
- Farmland in industrial districts rising despite visible land loss
- BBS and DAE report conflicting farmland figures
- Experts suspect inflated agricultural data or undercounted population
- Faulty data risks food security and economic policy planning
- Government forms taskforce to audit and fix BBS data
In 2014-15, Gazipur had 194,000 acres of net cropped area. By 2021-22, official data showed an increase to 201,000 acres—a puzzling rise in a district rapidly losing farmland to factories and resorts.
This is Gazipur we are talking about—the industrial engine room of Bangladesh, where garment factories sprout almost overnight and resorts promise Dhaka's weary crowd a weekend escape. In recent years, rows of factories and resorts have steadily replaced the emerald rice fields and jute patches that once defined the landscape.
And yet, the BBS data suggests an expansion of farmland, not a contraction.
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Similar trends appear in other Dhaka-adjacent districts like Narayanganj, Narsingdi, and Manikganj. Yet, visible land loss contradicts official figures. Faridpur's case is even more striking: BBS data claims a 101,000-acre expansion in farmland over seven years—despite river erosion swallowing vast tracts.
Where did all this land come from? Did the rivers recede and leave behind fertile plains? Did char lands magically multiply? Or is there something in the data we are not seeing—or perhaps, seeing too much of?
On the surface, the numbers tell a story. But sometimes, it takes a little digging beyond the surface to find out what it really is.
Rice surplus vs. imports: A contradiction
Bangladesh produced over 40 million tonnes of rice in FY2023-24—enough for 630 grams per person daily. Yet, per capita consumption has dropped to 328.9 grams (2022), suggesting a surplus.
Despite this, the government approved rice imports—50,000 tonnes in February 2024 and 500,000 tonnes for FY2024-25. Private traders imported another 1.4 million tonnes. If production meets demand, why import? Experts suspect inflated data or undercounted population.
Of course, not all rice is consumed by humans. The Ministry of Food, in a document published on 31 May 2023, estimated that 3.5 million tonnes—about 9.2% of total production—went to animal feed. Professor Md. Kamrul Hasan of Bangladesh Agricultural University suggests that seeds, feed (for fish, poultry, and livestock), loss, and waste together account for 17.8% of total production. Even then, the numbers don't quite add up.
DAE vs. BBS: Conflicting reports
The Department of Agricultural Extension (DAE) reports Gazipur lost 21,694 acres of farmland between 2012-13 and 2022-23. Yet BBS data claims expansion.
DAE officials in Faridpur dispute BBS's figures, noting river erosion outweighs new char land formation. BBS Director General Mohammed Mizanur Rahman acknowledged "confusion" but cited palm-to-crop conversions as a possible factor.
Asked about conducting the survey without the assistance of the Department of Agricultural Extension (DAE), which has officials at the Union Council level, he said that BBS carries out its own survey, while the DAE conducts a separate one. However, a tripartite committee — comprising BBS, DAE, and SPARRSO — ultimately finalizes key data such as cropped areas and agricultural production.
Alauddin Al Azad, Director of the Agriculture Wing at BBS, also confirmed that they independently conducted the agricultural survey.
Experts warn of policy risks
Discrepancies in agricultural data threaten food security and economic planning. "Accurate population and production data are foundational," says Dr. Fahmida Khatun of CPD. The White Paper on State of the Bangladesh Economy likens reliable data to "oxygen for policy making."
"The interim government needs reliable numbers to carry out the reform measures they are working on," Dr Fahmida points out. "Numbers matter. And getting them right isn't just about statistics—it's about the country's future."
Because, in the end, how can you fix what you cannot measure?
Taskforce formed to overhaul BBS
Last week, the government launched an eight-member expert panel to improve BBS's data quality. Chaired by Dr. Hossain Zillur Rahman (PPRC), it includes economists and statisticians tasked with strengthening transparency and credibility.
"We'll be conducting a thorough and critical review of BBS data—examining how it's produced, its institutional capacity, and its overall credibility," said Rahman, speaking to TBS.
He added that the task force will submit its report within 90 days after extensive consultations with stakeholders and experts.
