US losses in Iran conflict estimated at up to $2.8b: Analysts

The United States has lost between $2.3 billion and $2.8 billion worth of military equipment during its ongoing conflict with Iran, according to estimates by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

According to reporting by Al Jazeera, the figures, which primarily cover aerial assets, do not yet include potential losses involving specialised naval equipment or the full extent of damage to US bases across the region, the analysis said.

Among the most significant losses were advanced radar and surveillance systems. On 1 March, at least one Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile defence radar system was destroyed, with losses estimated between $485 million and $970 million. Later in the month, on 27 March, a missile and drone strike on Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia destroyed an E-3 airborne warning and control system aircraft valued at around $700 million.

The conflict has also seen losses in combat aviation. Three F-15 fighter jets were shot down in a "friendly fire" incident in Kuwait in early March, according to the sources.

Damage to infrastructure at US-used bases in the Gulf has also been reported. While satellite imagery from Planet Labs has been restricted from public release at the request of the US government, Iranian satellite data indicates that multiple buildings at such facilities have been struck.

A key battleground in the conflict has been the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic waterway for global energy shipments. Between Feb. 28 and April 12, 22 vessels — including tankers, bulk carriers and container ships — were attacked in the territorial waters of Oman, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, the sources said.

Iran imposed restrictions on the strait early in the conflict. The United States responded on 13 April by enforcing a naval blockade on Iranian ports. Analysts cited in the sources said Washington was initially unprepared and lacked sufficient forces to keep the waterway open.

The developments come despite US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth stating in late March that Iran's military had been "effectively neutralised." Analysts said that while Iran's conventional military capabilities have been degraded, its missile, munitions and drone capabilities remain intact.

Strategic analysts also noted that although the United States often secures "operational victories," it has historically struggled to achieve broader "strategic ends," including objectives such as regime change and denuclearisation.

They added that the administration of Donald Trump may be reluctant to fully disclose personnel and equipment losses, citing potential political implications ahead of the November midterm elections.