Trump pushes for Nobel Peace Prize, but experts say chances are slim
“Everyone says that I should get the Nobel Peace Prize,” he told supporters recently, adding that he should have received “at least two” because former President Barack Obama was awarded one in 2009
US President Donald Trump has been actively promoting his nomination for the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize, but experts and longtime Nobel watchers say his chances of winning the award, to be announced in Oslo on Friday, remain remote.
Trump, who frequently claims that he deserves the prize, has cited his role in the 2020 Abraham Accords, his engagement with North Korea, and his recent proposal for ending the Gaza war as reasons he should be honored. "Everyone says that I should get the Nobel Peace Prize," he told supporters recently, adding that he should have received "at least two" because former President Barack Obama was awarded one in 2009, reports the Associated Press.
The Nobel Committee received 338 nominations this year, including individuals and organizations, but analysts say Trump's chances are "a long shot".
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Push for Recognition
Trump's campaign for the award has included public statements, lobbying by associates such as his envoy Steve Witkoff, and reminders from allies including Senator Marco Rubio. His nomination was formally submitted by New York congresswoman Claudia Tenney, while other endorsements from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the Pakistani government came after the February 1 deadline and will not count toward the 2025 award, says Al Jazeera.
Trump's case centers on several initiatives: the Abraham Accords, which normalized Israel's relations with several Arab states; his claim of having "ended seven wars"; and his recent "20-point Gaza peace plan", which he says could help end the current conflict.
Criteria Mismatch
However, Nobel experts say Trump's record does not align with the Norwegian Nobel Committee's long-established criteria.
"The committee rewards sustained, multilateral peace efforts that promote long-term stability," said a Nobel historian in Oslo. "Trump's initiatives tend to focus on short-term deals and headline moments."
His Gaza proposal, unveiled just days before the prize announcement, has been described by one analyst as a "peace plan still in beta" and by another as "press-conference theatre" — the kind of diplomacy the committee tends to avoid recognizing.
Cultural and Political Factors
Trump's outspoken style and public lobbying may also hurt his prospects.
"Culturally, he is very much an antithesis for Norway," said Professor Hilde Restad of Oslo's Bjørknes University College. "Norwegian political culture values understatement and consensus, not self-promotion."
Nina Græger, director of the Peace Research Institute Oslo, added that Trump's rhetoric "does not point in a peaceful perspective."
The committee also seeks to maintain independence from political pressure. Trump's repeated declarations that he "deserves" the prize could make it more likely that members avoid rewarding him, experts said.
Broader Criticism
Critics further point to Trump's withdrawal from multilateral agreements, contentious policies, and skepticism toward climate change — an issue many Nobel observers regard as central to global peace — as additional factors working against his candidacy.
Odds and Outlook
Betting markets place Trump behind frontrunners such as Russian dissident Yulia Navalnaya and Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms, though such odds have historically proven unreliable.
Analysts say that regardless of the outcome, Trump is likely to use the result to reinforce his political message. If awarded, his supporters are expected to hail it as "the greatest Nobel in history." If not, Trump is likely to denounce the decision as another example of bias by "global elites."
"The Nobel Committee has surprised before," one Oslo-based analyst said. "But this would be one of the biggest surprises in its history."
