Donald Trump's Gulf war is undermining US power
The era known as Pax Americana, the Latin term for “American peace”, was far from perfect. Washington’s domination of global affairs after World War Two included many wars — and the United States itself often broke the rules it had played a central role in crafting
Countries that have suffered under US hegemony may rejoice that Donald Trump's Gulf war is damaging American power. But they should be careful what they wish for. A weaker and more isolationist United States could make the world more dangerous.
The era known as Pax Americana, the Latin term for "American peace", was far from perfect. Washington's domination of global affairs after World War Two included many wars — and the United States itself often broke the rules it had played a central role in crafting, for example when it invaded Iraq in 2003. Even so, the world as a whole enjoyed greater prosperity and less bloodshed than in previous decades. Global output increased 6.7 times in the second half of the 20th century, compared with an increase of just 2.4 times in the first half.
Things could now get much worse. The attack on Iran is undermining US alliances in the Middle East, Asia and Europe, while strengthening rivals like China. Beijing might not be a benign hegemon. The world could be heading towards a nasty, brutish future unless a humbler United States recommits itself to backing the rule of law once Trump's presidency is over.
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Make America weak again
One source of Washington's power has been its alliances. Another has been its moral high ground — as a defender of democracy, liberty and the rule of law — at least when compared to the former Soviet Union or the People's Republic of China.
Trump has been destroying these sources of power since he returned to the White House last year. His imposition of tariffs on trading partners, his threat to take over Greenland and his disdain for the NATO alliance — as well as his attacks on the legal system at home — are turning America into something resembling a rogue nation.
The US-Israeli attack on Iran is taking this process into overdrive. It is, of course, possible that Trump will neutralise Tehran's threats once and for all, pacify the Middle East and emerge triumphant. But it seems more likely that the man who promised to Make America Great Again will make it weaker.
The war has harmed the Gulf Arab countries, despite Saudi Arabia, Qatar and United Arab Emirates pledging last year to invest $3.6 trillion in the United States. They are now losing around $1 billion a day in revenue as they cannot export most of their oil and gas. Tehran's counterattacks have damaged their energy infrastructure and trashed their attractiveness as hubs for tourism, finance and aviation. No wonder they are resentful.
Japan, South Korea and Taiwan are also worried. If the United States is sucked into a quagmire in the Middle East, its allies in Asia may not be able to rely on Washington to defend them against Beijing and Pyongyang. The Trump administration has already redeployed anti-air defences from South Korea to the Middle East, the Washington Post reported. It has also moved two destroyers from Japan to the Arabian Sea. At some point, Chinese President Xi Jinping might conclude the balance of forces had tilted sufficiently in his favour that he could move ahead with his ambition to take control of Taiwan.
European countries are similarly anxious. The Gulf war has boosted the Kremlin's war chest, improving Russia's chances of winning its war against Ukraine. That would undermine Europe's own security, particularly now that Trump has stepped up his verbal attacks on NATO allies. Meanwhile, soaring oil prices have hit petroleum and fertiliser importers in Asia, Europe and further afield.
All this plays into China's hands. It was able to build its economic and military power while the United States was distracted by its multi-year war in Iraq. It could similarly benefit from an Iranian sequel. While Washington is causing havoc, Beijing can pose as a responsible power — despite its belligerent approach to neighbours such as Japan and the Philippines.
The People's Republic also looks like a winner in the global energy struggle. Trump's Gulf war has underlined the need for energy security. For countries that do not have plentiful hydrocarbons of their own, the best way to achieve that will often be via renewable power. Though China is the world's largest importer of oil, it will benefit from its domination of solar panels, wind turbines, batteries and electric vehicles. By contrast, Trump's "drill baby, drill" mantra looks like a losing medium-term bet.
Beijing's control of critical minerals, a vital component for much military equipment, gives it a further advantage. The Pentagon sought fresh supplies of 13 such minerals the day before it launched its attack on Iran.
Endgame scenarios
The perception that the United States can squash any enemy has been another source of its power. But the latest Gulf war could undermine that too. The Iranian government may look like a winner so long as it survives, even if the United States and Israel destroy large parts of its army and infrastructure. Trump is not enthusiastic about a full-scale invasion to change the government in Tehran, though he has not ruled it out.
Many endgames are possible. One would see the United States retreating into one of its periodic isolationist phases. Countries such as Russia could then use the vacuum to step up their aggression.
Another scenario would see Trump launching more military campaigns against weaker opponents, further undermining the global order. He has already threatened Cuba as well as Greenland.
There is, though, one rosy scenario. Under this, the United States would stay engaged in global affairs — but not as a bully. It would do its best to uphold the rule of law, working with both traditional allies in Europe and East Asia and countries in the so-called Global South such as India and Brazil.
So long as Trump is in the White House, there is no chance of such an outcome. But it might be possible if an eventual successor saw this approach as in the long-term US interest. The European Union and middle powers like Canada, the United Kingdom, Indonesia and Australia should certainly work towards such an outcome. The best way to do that is to club together and build their strength now.
Note: This article is based on the opinions of the author. Hugo Dixon is Commentator-at-Large for Reuters. He was the founding chair and editor-in-chief of Breakingviews, Reuters.
