Surging in polls, Thailand's reformist opposition tests new election playbook

Highlights:

• People's Party is frontrunner in February 8 election
• Party moderates stance on royal insult law and military to gain support
• Has unveiled team of experts as potential cabinet ministers

Three years ago, a party of reform-minded progressives swept Thailand's election in the wake of mass anti-establishment protests only to be blocked from taking power and forced to disband.

Now reborn as the People's Party, Thai voters are once again backing the progressives' promises of change, making the party the clear frontrunner for the 8 February polls, ahead of rivals that joined forces against its predecessor after the last election in 2023.

Two surveys released in mid-January showed the People's Party and its prime ministerial candidate as the overwhelming favourites, trouncing the ruling Bhumjaithai party and the populist Pheu Thai, which led a previous ruling coalition.

"We are at the best position we've ever been in," Deputy Leader Rangsiman Rome told Reuters, saying its detailed policy proposals were pulling in support alongside efforts to woo the undecided.

"For those that accused us of not being ready to run the country, we are showing them the opposite: that we have the team."

The People's Party will need to win at least 250 of the 500 seats in parliament in order to secure a clear majority.

It is currently at 30% to 34% in most opinion polls, so even if the momentum carries the party to victory, its ability to govern may still be stymied by its rivals.

A surge in nationalism following a fierce border conflict with Cambodia is providing ammunition to the campaigns of Thailand's conservatives, who are using the dispute to attack the People's Party agenda.

The party also faces potential legal action from an anti-graft agency that could suspend dozens of its members and ban them from politics for attempting to amend Thailand's royal insult law in 2021.

Old tussle, new plan

The groundwork for the People's Party popularity has been carefully engineered, particularly after the progressives' anti-establishment stance left its forerunner unable to form a government despite winning the last general election.

Move Forward picked up 151 seats in parliament in 2023 on a platform that included reforming the royalist military and breaking up business monopolies.

But a military-appointed Senate blocked its prime ministerial candidate in a parliamentary vote, opening the way for Pheu Thai to govern Southeast Asia's second-largest economy.

It was another round in the decades-long tussle between popular political movements and Thailand's conservative establishment, backed by the military, that has triggered bouts of instability, including violent protests and coups.

Around a year after the election, a Thai court ordered the dissolution of Move Forward, ruling that its campaign to amend a law that protects the monarchy from criticism risked undermining the democratic system.

Within hours of the ruling, its leaders announced they had formed the People's Party.

Outside talent

This time around the progressives appear to be moderating their position, including dropping their call to amend the royal insult law and softening their stance on the military.

Four People's Party members told Reuters that its campaign would double down on promoting detailed governance plans and a new team of experienced professionals.

"We think that it could help restore people's faith and trust in the People's Party," one of them said.

But the strategy of bringing in outside talent has caused upset within the grouping.

Kalyapat Rachitroj, a former lawmaker, resigned from the party earlier this month, arguing that the appointment of outsiders meant long-term members were overlooked.

"You can bring in hundreds more technocrats, professors, PhDs, and elites, but none of them are worth as much as a single idealist who has to leave," she wrote on social media.

Alternative to ruling party

The People's Party unveiled its team of experts on 11 January, presenting them as potential cabinet ministers, alongside their slate of prime ministerial candidates including leader Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut and key economic strategist Sirikanya Tansakun.

Among the new inductees were former Thai envoy to the US Pisan Manawapat, former law dean at Bangkok's Thammasat University Munin Pongsapan and Peangpanor Boonklum, a veteran corporate lawyer and former PTT executive.

"The move allows the party to present their own alternative to Bhumjaithai's team of technocrats, which could help the party pull wavering voters, especially middle-class urbanites," said independent analyst Mathis Lohatepanont.

Bhumjaithai, led by Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul, has named career diplomat and current Foreign Minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow as one of its prime ministerial candidates.

If it returns to power, the ruling party has said business executive Suphajee Suthumpun and former bureaucrat Ekniti Nitithanprapas will continue as commerce and finance ministers.

Although it is still too early to gauge the overall impact of the People's Party's new strategy, the softening of its position on contentious issues gives it more elbow room after the votes are counted, said Lohatepanont.

"This could be seen as both an election strategy to broaden the base and also as a way to ensure that their options are kept as open as possible in forming a government," he said.