To Lam, reformist risk-taker, seeks to extend his hold on Vietnam

Highlights:

• Communist Party meets to select leaders ahead of congress
• Lam seeks full five-year term as top official
• For 18 months he has pushed economic, administrative reforms
• Lam balanced major powers, but amid US tariffs, has moved closer to Beijing

Vietnam's Communist Party chief To Lam, who is seeking a new mandate as the country's top leader, has earned a reputation as an ambitious risk-taker whose brief initial tenure was defined by rapid, sweeping reforms and a commanding leadership style.

Senior officials of the Communist Party, which has ruled Vietnam unopposed for decades, selected this week unnamed candidates for the country's next leadership, which a five-yearly congress in January will formally endorse. Lam, 68, is considered the leading contender to remain as general secretary, although the opaque process leaves room for surprises.

Like China, Vietnam is ruled by a communist party, but unlike its neighbour, it has long relied on collective decision-making and multiple checks on individual leaders. However, Lam has strengthened the role of the party chief, following the path set by his late predecessor Nguyen Phu Trong, a shift that could push Vietnam to more centralised rule.

In roughly 18 months at the helm, Lam pushed through sweeping administrative and economic reforms, which admirers likened to the ambitious agenda of Argentina's libertarian President Javier Milei, but that have also spurred discontent.

If confirmed, he "will hit the ground running as he did in August 2024," said Carl Thayer, a senior expert on Vietnam at the Australian Defence Force Academy, noting Lam would further strengthen the managerial role of the party secretariat and push through his bold reform agenda.

Despite not holding the title of head of state, Lam has embarked on a whirlwind tour on the world stage, making international visits to historical communist partners and new capitalist friends alike.

He has continued his predecessor's "bamboo diplomacy", balancing among major powers. However, under pressure from US tariffs, Hanoi has moved closer to Beijing.

Under Lam, the security apparatus has vastly expanded, with the police gaining powers in lawmaking, project approvals and in the corporate world.

Lam has not responded to multiple interview requests.

Stellar rise

The son of a senior police officer, Lam studied security, earned a PhD in law and rose through the ranks to become minister for public security in 2016, was promoted to a four-star general nearly three years later and then admitted in 2021 to the party Politburo, the country's most powerful body.

As police chief, he was a key enforcer of Trong's sweeping anti-corruption drive launched in 2017, which led to the dismissal of hundreds of officials, and in 2023-2024 the resignation of two state presidents.

He emerged as the dominant figure of that tumultuous period. He was first appointed president in May 2024, and took the party helm after Trong died the following July.

For a few months, he held both top roles until relinquishing the presidency - reluctantly, according to multiple officials.

But after stepping down, he often acted as de facto head of state, representing the country in multiple overseas trips and in meetings with foreign leaders.

Some officials saw his moves as steps toward a model closer to China's, where Xi Jinping heads both party and state.

It is not clear whether he will push to formally merge the two roles, but officials said that prospect dimmed after disappointing trade talks with the United States, Vietnam's top export destination, and domestic unease over aspects of Lam's reforms.

Economic reforms

Soon after becoming party chief, he completed Vietnam's most comprehensive administrative overhaul in decades, cutting layers of local and central government. Nearly 150,000 officials lost their jobs and power structures were redrawn.

Intended to slash red tape and accelerate decisions, the reform has, however, at times produced delays as bureaucracies adjust.

His economic reforms have stressed the role of the private sector, leading enthusiasts to dub them a new Doi Moi, after the 1980s liberalisation that launched decades of growth.

Yet he has also insisted the state will retain a leading role in the economy, nurturing domestic conglomerates with subsidies while setting their targets - nudging them closer to quasi–state-owned status.

The pace has impressed many foreign investors who regularly praise Vietnam's political stability. Supporters see a chance to speed up growth.

However, critics argue the benefits of Lam's reforms are accruing to a narrow group of well‑connected firms.

"When he promotes the 'private sector', he means the private companies that are nicely tied up to the party," quipped a foreign diplomat.

Public sentiment is hard to measure in a country where dissent is outlawed and media are state-controlled.

A father of four from two relationships, Lam loves classical music. As minister of public security, he oversaw approval of a large new opera house, Hanoi's second, opened in 2023. A third, designed by Italian architect Renzo Piano, is under construction.

He is known to involve himself directly in operations, having led anti-smuggling campaigns earlier in his career. More controversially, he has also been viewed as the architect of the 2017 extraordinary rendition of a Vietnamese national from Germany.