Argentina's midterm election hands decisive win to Milei's libertarian overhaul

Highlights:

• Milei wins decisive victory in congressional midterm vote
• Election win will enable him to continue economic overhaul
• Trump has conditioned future support for Argentina on Milei triumph

Argentine President Javier Milei's party cruised to victory in midterm legislative elections as voters handed him a mandate to keep pushing through his radical overhaul of the economy despite widespread discontent with his deep austerity measures.

A relief to Milei, whose poll numbers had sagged in recent weeks, the results are also likely to please US President Donald Trump, whose administration had faced criticism after providing Argentina with a hefty financial bailout.

Analysts said the stronger-than-expected showing could reflect fear of renewed economic turmoil if the country abandoned Milei's austerity policies which, while slashing subsidies long relied on by many Argentines, have succeeded in drastically slowing inflation.

"Argentines showed that they don't want to return to the model of failure," said Milei, speaking triumphantly before a crowd of supporters at a hotel in Buenos Aires after the results.

ARGENTINE PUBLIC WARY OF PAST ECONOMIC CRISES

Gustavo Cordoba, the director of the Argentine Zuban Cordoba polling firm, said he was surprised by Milei's showing and thought it reflected concern about potentially repeating the economic crises of past governments.

"Many people were willing to give the government another chance," he said. "We'll see how much time Argentine society gives the Argentine government. But the triumph is unobjectionable, unquestionable."

Cordoba said Milei's government appeared to have secured the one-third of seats it needs in the Chamber of Deputies to prevent any future presidential vetoes from being overturned by Congress. In the last few months, the opposition had overturned several Milei vetoes of spending bills he had said threatened the country's fiscal balance.

"The result is better than even the most optimistic Milei supporters were hoping for," said Marcelo Garcia, Americas director of risk consultancy Horizon Engage.

"With this result, Milei will be able to easily defend his decrees and vetoes in Congress," Garcia said, adding that allies will have more of an incentive to support a winning president.

Indeed, in his celebratory speech, Milei suggested a deeper willingness to form partnerships, saying "there are dozens of deputies and senators from other parties with whom we can reach basic agreements."

Foreign investors have been impressed by the government's ability to significantly reduce monthly inflation from 12.8% before Milei's inauguration to 2.1% last month, while achieving a fiscal surplus and enacting sweeping deregulation measures.

To support Milei, the Trump administration offered a bailout potentially worth $40 billion, including a $20 billion currency swap that is already signed and a proposed $20 billion debt investment facility.

The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Sunday's election result.

MILEI GETS BIG WINS IN BUENOS AIRES AND NATIONALLY

The president's party, La Libertad Avanza, scored 41.5% of the vote in Buenos Aires province compared with 40.8% for the Peronist coalition, according to official results. The province has long been a political stronghold for the Peronists, marking a dramatic political shift, and a major comeback for Milei from Buenos Aires congressional elections in September.

Nationwide, La Libertad Avanza got 64 seats in the House of Deputies, up from 37, according to government figures.

Half of Argentina's lower Chamber of Deputies, or 127 seats, as well as a third of the Senate, or 24 seats, were up for election in the midterm vote. The Peronist opposition movement held the largest minority in both houses, overshadowing Milei's relatively new party.

Political experts had said that capturing more than 35% of the vote would be a positive outcome for Milei's government.

Maria Laura Tagina, a political scientist at the Universidad Nacional de San Martin, said that while Milei's approval rating had suffered from fatigue over austerity measures and corruption scandals, it was possible disillusioned Argentines decided to stay home. Voter turnout was around 68%, the lowest in more than a decade, media outlets reported.

Milei has said he expects a cabinet shake-up after the election that could include members of the centrist PRO party, a frequent ally of the government in Congress led by former President Mauricio Macri.

Bonds and stocks are expected to rally on Monday when markets open, as the result gives Milei the votes and political capital needed to accelerate his reforms.

Many analysts also predicted there would be a devaluation of the peso, which they say has been overvalued to contain inflation.