US-Iran conflict enters new phase as Saudi Arabia joins strikes, diplomacy stalls

The stop-start conflict between the United States and Iran appears to have entered a new phase, with Saudi Arabia publicly joining military action against Tehran-backed proxies as diplomatic efforts to end the war once again falter amid deepening mistrust between the two longtime adversaries.

Despite several days of relative calm, both sides carried out military strikes over the past 24 hours, raising fears of a return to full-scale fighting and further regional escalation. At the same time, it remains unclear whether either Washington or Tehran has a clear strategy for ending the conflict.

While President Donald Trump and his allies have recently claimed that Iran is eager to return to negotiations, Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister said Tuesday that Tehran had made no request to resume diplomatic talks for more than two weeks. 

After an attempted attack on a US base in Jordan was thwarted, Trump returned to threatening Iran on Wednesday while keeping open the possibility of further negotiations.

"They've already apologized, but, you know, we got to smack them a little bit," Trump told reporters in the Oval Office. "It's our turn, and we'll see if we get there with an agreement at some point. But we're going to hit them very hard."

Hours later, the US military said it had launched "a powerful response to yesterday's attempted Iranian attacks on U.S. forces based in the Middle East" in a social media post. It did not immediately provide details about the targets.

The latest developments reflect a pattern seen repeatedly over the past several months, with Trump alternating between saying a deal to end the war and address Iran's nuclear programme was close and issuing threats aimed at forcing Tehran to accept US demands.

The stakes are particularly high for Trump and his Republican Party as the unpopular conflict has disrupted the global economy only months before the crucial November midterm elections. Renewed fighting has also resulted in more US military casualties and raised concerns that Washington is depleting stocks of key air defence systems needed to protect its troops and allies.

Saudi Arabia enters conflict as Israel steps back

Iran said it fired ballistic missiles at Jordan's Muwaffaq Salti Air Base, a key US military facility in the region, over the past day. Trump said the missiles were intercepted.

Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, joined the United States in striking several logistics and weapons facilities used by Iranian-backed militias in Iraq.

The first publicly announced joint US-Saudi strikes came after drone attacks targeted Saudi Arabia, further complicating a conflict that now involves nearly every country in the region. A US official, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive military operations, said the two attacks were not linked.

Saudi Defense Minister Khalid bin Salman was at the White House on Wednesday, where he separately met Trump and Vice President JD Vance, according to a person familiar with the matter who was not authorised to speak publicly.

Drone attacks also caused fires on two natural gas vessels at a port in Egypt, a close US ally and regional mediator. Egypt has so far been among the few Middle Eastern countries spared direct military action during the war.

If the attack is confirmed to have been carried out by Iran or its allies, it would represent a significant expansion of the conflict.

The US-Saudi strikes came hours after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu left his first meeting with Trump since the two countries launched their war against Iran on Feb. 28. 

An Israeli official briefed on Tuesday's White House meeting said Netanyahu assured Trump that the United States, rather than Israel, was leading the policy toward Iran. The comment appeared aimed at countering suggestions that Netanyahu was increasingly out of step with Washington over the way forward.

However, Israeli officials have privately expressed concern that Trump is seeking to keep the conflict at a low level as the midterm elections approach, according to a person familiar with internal discussions within Netanyahu's government. Both the person and the Israeli official spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorised to discuss the matter publicly.

The person said Israeli officials are also increasingly concerned about Trump's sensitivity to rising oil prices as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to global energy shipments. They are also worried about growing concerns within the US administration over the rapid use of critical missile interceptors.

The recent fighting with Iran has further reduced US stocks of Patriot and THAAD interceptors, which were already limited, potentially increasing risks to American troops if hostilities resume, according to an analysis released this week by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think tank.

Gen Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, has also warned Trump that the condition of US munitions stocks could affect military operations against Iran, another US official said.

The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive conversations, said Caine delivered the message as part of his regular responsibility to provide Trump with military advice and options.

Failed diplomacy clouds prospects for US-Iran talks

The Trump administration currently appears to have no clear strategy for restarting negotiations with Iran over ending the conflict.

Although some mediators have been working to revive talks or establish conditions for their resumption, the administration is not actively pursuing negotiations at present, a senior US official said.

The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations, said recent developments in the region indicate that a return to direct diplomacy is not imminent.

Analysts say the uncertainty and lack of a clear strategy are rooted in deepening mistrust between Washington and Tehran, particularly after an interim ceasefire proposal agreed in mid-June collapsed in recent weeks.

Ali Vaez, Iran project director at the International Crisis Group, said senior Iranian officials had been nearly unanimous in approving the memorandum of understanding with the United States.

"But now none of them believe that Trump is a reliable negotiating partner," he said. "The problem, I think, is that Trump also has now the same impression about the Iranians." 

The repeated cycle of negotiations, breakdowns and military strikes is not entirely unexpected.

US-Iran relations since the 1979 Islamic Revolution have been marked by failed negotiations, false starts and military actions that stopped short of full-scale war, although the two countries are now engaged in a much more serious conflict.

Despite its shortcomings, the 2015 nuclear agreement reached with Iran under the Obama administration was the first major agreement between the two countries since the Algiers Accords in 1981, which ended the US hostage crisis and established a framework for resolving other disputes, including the unfreezing of Iranian assets held by the United States since the Islamic Revolution.

However, both sides accused each other of violating the terms of the agreements from the outset.

Disputes over alleged violations of the Algiers Accords contributed to a period of intense hostility, including US support for Saddam Hussein's Iraq during the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq war.

Relations improved somewhat after the 2015 nuclear deal, but Trump's decision to withdraw from the agreement in 2018 during his first term, his "maximum pressure" sanctions campaign against Tehran and the US killing of Iran's top military commander Qassem Soleimani in early 2020 pushed relations to new lows.