Ukrainian drone strikes push up Russian trucking costs, stoking inflation  

Walking past a line of parked trucks in the town of Ramenskoye outside Moscow, Valeria Savenkova, commercial director of logistics operator Logistic Performance, said rising fuel costs had forced her company to scale back its geographical footprint.

Earlier this year, her company was doing long-haul freight carriage across what is the world's largest country. But Savenkova said fuel prices had risen by 16% to 18% in the past month — the result of Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries — pushing up the company's transport costs by 4.5% to 5.5%.

"We managed to reorganise our logistics operations very quickly and moved away from long-haul routes," Savenkova told Reuters, saying that there were still fuel restrictions in parts of Siberia where prices were considerably higher.

"We're no longer running deliveries across Russia's regions. And we are focusing on shorter routes within the Moscow region and delivering cargo to the nearest ports."

Despite Russia's extensive railway network, more than 70% of all cargo in the first half of 2026 was transported by road, according to state statistical agency Rosstat. Higher trucking costs are adding to inflationary pressure, and even if the situation stabilises, industry sources say nobody expects prices to return to previous levels.

Many of the fuel shortages, which this summer spread across Russia's 11 time zones after Ukraine intensified its strikes, have eased, authorities say. Russia has imported fuel to offset the shortfall and eased fuel quality regulations.

But some regions, particularly in Siberia and near China, continue to suffer and there has been no let-up in Ukrainian strikes.

In July, the most acute phase of the fuel crisis, freight rates increased by 12% to 15% on average, compared with the previous month, while on some routes and in certain regions increases were as much as 50%, Vitaly Kiselev, head of the commercial transport committee at the Russian Association of Automobile Dealers, told Reuters.

According to him, fuel accounts for around 30% of freight expenses. He said fuel discounts previously available for carriers, which were between 7% and 12%, had now disappeared.

The rise in the cost of diesel fuel has coincided with higher toll charges on federal highways, a shortage of drivers, and a seasonal surge in demand for transportation of perishable goods, Kiselev said.

Costlier China shipments

Routes from China, which has become Russia's most important trading partner in recent years, are under strain.

Carriers face fuel supply disruptions in Zabaykalsky Krai, through which a significant share of cargo traffic from China passes, says Georgy Vlastopulo, founder of logistics company Optimalog.

"Rates rose by roughly 20% to 25% if you compare May and early June with mid-July, when the impact of the fuel crisis was at its most severe. Now, prices have come down slightly, but not by much," he said at his Moscow office.

The cost of a shipment from China to Moscow has risen by almost a third to about 1.1 million to 1.2 million roubles, or $14,000. Before the crisis, the same route cost $10,000 to $11,000.

"And we're not seeing prices fall back in any meaningful way, because problems persist in Zabaykalsky Krai. Trucks are still having to queue for fuel, for two or three days."

According to Vlastopulo, clients are increasingly looking for alternatives to road transport. Demand for direct rail shipments has risen by around 18% to 20%. Demand for sea transportation has increased by 10% to 12%, he said.

Long-term trend?

Market players fear the price surge could become a long-term trend.

"There will be no reduction in tariffs — we can say this for sure," Kiselev said.

"We believe that even if the situation normalises and fuel supplies in the region become sufficient again, the rates are likely to come down by no more than 7% to 10%. That's because transport companies will want to recover at least part of the losses they incurred as a result of lower load factors and reduced fleet utilisation," Vlastopulo said.