Romanians vote in presidential run-off that could widen EU rifts

Highlights:

• Romania holds presidential election run-off on Sunday
• Centrist Nicusor Dan facing hard-right candidate George Simion
• Dan has slight lead in latest poll, race likely to be tight
• After government collapse, all eyes on new president's PM pick
• Initial 2024 ballot cancelled after alleged Russian meddling

Romanians vote on Sunday in a presidential election run-off that pits a hard-right eurosceptic against a centrist independent, and where the outcome could have implications for both the country's struggling economy and EU unity.

Hard-right nationalist George Simion, 38, who opposes military aid to neighbouring Ukraine and is critical of European Union leadership, decisively swept the first presidential election round, triggering the collapse of a pro-Western coalition government. That led to significant capital outflows.

Centrist Bucharest mayor Nicusor Dan, 55, who has pledged to clamp down on corruption, is staunchly pro-EU and NATO, and has said Romania's support for Ukraine is vital for its own security against a growing Russian threat.

The president of the EU and NATO state has considerable powers, not least being in charge of the defence council that decides on military aid. He will also have oversight of foreign policy, with the power to veto EU votes that require unanimity.

Whoever is elected will also need to nominate a prime minister to negotiate a new majority in parliament to reduce Romania's budget deficit - the largest in the EU - as well as reassure investors and try to avoid a credit rating downgrade.

An opinion poll on Friday showed Dan slightly ahead of Simion for the first time since the first round in a tight race that will depend on turnout and the sizable Romanian diaspora.

"Unlike Western states, which can more easily afford mistakes, trust in Romania can be lost much more easily and it could ... take generations to gain it back," said Radu Burnete, director of the country's largest employers' group.

"We cannot afford to drift."

Voting starts at 7am (0400 GMT) and ends at 9pm (1800 GMT), with exit polls to follow immediately.

MISINFORMATION

Political analysts have said victory for Simion, a supporter of US President Donald Trump, would risk isolating the country abroad, eroding private investment and destabilising NATO's eastern flank.

The vote comes on the same day as the first round of Poland's presidential election, expected to be led by pro-EU Warsaw mayor Rafal Trzaskowski and conservative historian Karol Nawrocki.

Victory for Simion and/or Trzaskowski would expand a cohort of eurosceptic leaders that already includes prime ministers in Hungary and Slovakia amid a political shift in Central Europe that could widen rifts in the EU.

"What the (nationalists) want is a European Union that is as little integrated as possible," said political analyst and historian Ion M. Ionita.

"One that is very little united from a legislative standpoint in which decisions are only taken nationally, but still benefiting from European money."

Romania's vote comes nearly six months after the initial ballot was canceled because of alleged Russian interference - denied by Moscow - in favour of far-right frontrunner Calin Georgescu, who was then banned from standing again.

The cancellation was criticised by the Trump administration, and Simion owes much of his success to popular anger against the decision, as well as frustration with mainstream parties blamed for high living costs and corruption.

Simion has said his prime minister pick would be Georgescu, who favours nationalisations and an openness towards Russia.

Some analysts warn online disinformation has been rife again ahead of Sunday's vote.

"We're seeing disinformation spreading like wildfire across social media platforms – through bots and strategic reshares mimicking authentic posting," said Roxana Radu, expert at Oxford University's Blavatnik School of Government.